Only in Effrika

Nice place if it wasn't for some of the locals
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Boac
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Re: Only in Effrika

#181 Post by Boac » Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:42 am

"Close up, 4" =))

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Re: Only in Effrika

#182 Post by TheGreenAnger » Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:24 pm

Boac wrote:
Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:42 am
"Close up, 4" =))
One must admire a perfectionist! :) ;)))

But back to the modern day reality on the ground in SA, where almost 90% of the SAAF 's fleet of aircraft have been grounded due to lack of maintenance, and where the country is literally grinding to a juddering halt due to lack of power, as a result of the careless kleptocracy, corruption, deliberate sabotage, incompetency and imbecility of those in power!
In the past two years, Eskom has been forced to rely increasingly on the open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) — which were intended only for dire emergencies or use during peak demand periods — because of a steadily increasing number of breakdowns within its ageing coal-fired power fleet.

In the past few months, the OCGTs have become essential in the face of the loss of 4,500MW of generation capacity due to problems at Medupi and Kusile, Eskom’s two newest coal-fired power plants, and a life-extension refurbishment at Koeberg, its nuclear power station.

Eskom chief operating officer Jan Oberholzer says this combined outage equates to about five stages of load shedding.

Kusile Units 1, 2, 3 and 5 — which account for nearly 3,000MW of the amount — will be unavailable until the end of this year, he told EE Business Intelligence. The complex life extension of Units 1 and 2 at Koeberg will only be complete by March 2024, if all goes well. Medupi Unit 4 is only scheduled for return-to-service by September 2024 following a hydrogen explosion in August 2021.

When you add this large, combined outage to the country’s existing power generation gap of 4,000 to 6,000MW declared by Eskom more than three years ago — which has still not been addressed — it is clear that South Africa is teetering on the edge of an electricity emergency.

The diesel emergency
Eskom’s management team drew the ire of government in November 2022 when it declared that the utility had run out of diesel and could not afford to buy more, having spent roughly double the R6-billion diesel budget for the financial year ending 31 March 2023.

When no further funds from Treasury materialised, Eskom chief financial officer Calib Cassim managed to scrape together R1.5-billion intended for other purposes from his budget for the remainder of the year, to immediately buy 50 million litres of diesel from PetroSA.

That provided enough diesel to keep the OCGTs running as needed through December 2022. As the fuel ran out, Cassim came up with yet another R1.5-billion from Eskom’s coffers for a further 50.4-million litres of diesel.

According to Oberholzer, this should last until the end of January 2023. “From an operational point of view, I can tell you we need diesel,” he told EE Business Intelligence. “We need at least — and this is based on certain assumptions — an additional 200 million litres of diesel to take us towards the end of March 2023. It may be less and it may be even more, it all depends on what’s going to happen in respect of unplanned breakdowns. This is the best assumption we have, based on the outlook ahead”, he said.

Cassim says that this would cost Eskom another R6-billion. When added to the eleventh hour R3-billion which he has just coughed up, and the previous diesel spend of about R12-billion, the utility’s diesel spend for the full financial year 2022/23 will amount to about R21-billion. This is much more than double that of the 2021/2022 financial year, when Eskom spent R8-billion on diesel.

It is easy to see that government is very upset by the financial and political consequences, as finance minister Enoch Godongwana declared in Davos on 16 January 2023 that, “I don’t think Eskom has a diesel problem, I think it has a management problem.”

The Cost of Load Shedding
But despite the prohibitive cost of diesel, there is widespread consensus that the burden of severe load shedding on the economy is much higher.

Estimates vary widely. However, based on 11,797GWh (gigawatt hours) of unserved electricity in the 2022 calendar year calculated from load shedding data from EskomSePush, and a very low assumption of R10/kWh for unserved energy suggested by Eskom, the total cost to the economy during the year would have been R115-billion.

This very conservative estimate does not account for the longer-term impacts of lost opportunities caused by extended load shedding on business, industry, agriculture and investment generally — and the money spent by households, business and industry on backup power systems.

Taking this into account, the cost of unserved electricity is likely to be much higher. At R50/kWh or even R85/kWh (if a study by the CSIR is anything to go by), the cost to the economy in 2022 would be more like R590-billion or R1-trillion respectively.

Rising OCGT usage
The worst-case scenarios began to rear their head when Eskom was forced to implement Stage 6 load shedding on 11 January 2023 after 11 generation units unexpectedly broke down, taking the total amount of generation capacity offline to more than half of its installed capacity of about 46,000MW.

The load factor for Eskom’s OCGTs shot up to 48% at that time — meaning they were running flat out for about 12 hours of the day — and this is what enabled South Africa to avert crippling Stage 8 load shedding for the first time.

There are growing suggestions within the African National Congress that Eskom is deliberately implementing load shedding to scupper the ruling party’s chances in the 2024 national election. This is reinforced by utterances from minerals and energy minister Gwede Mantashe, who has claimed that Eskom is allowing more than 20,000MW of installed generation capacity to “stand idle”.

In reality, Eskom’s system operator implements load shedding to balance supply and demand on the grid, to avert a national blackout. The risk of this catastrophe is still seen as slim — provided that Eskom has enough diesel for the OCGTs, as well as other emergency levers at the disposal of the system operator.

Eskom’s own OCGT power plants — Ankerlig and Gourikwa — can generate up to 2,067MW of power, which mitigates two stages of load shedding. There are also two further OCGT power plants — Dedisa and Avon — owned and operated by independent power producers (IPPs), which can generate 1,005MW to avert a further one stage of load shedding. The IPP OCGTs are not part of Eskom’s diesel headache as they buy their own fuel.

A look at the load factor trend for Eskom’s OCGT usage over the past year tells the whole story. In financial year 2021/2022 it averaged 7%, and in the year to date it stands at 14%, according to Cassim. This compares with an OCGT usage load factor of just 6% factored into Eskom’s latest electricity tariff approved by Nersa for the 2023/24 financial year starting 1 April 2023.

The diesel outlook
Now, once again, Eskom is peering into an abyss. Its second batch of diesel is expected to run out at the end of January 2023, and the Eskom board is looking at ways of coming up with the cash to keep the OCGTs running until the start of the new financial year on 1 April 2023.

“We now need to find cash somewhere, and as soon as possible. We have been given some actions that we are actively and urgently pursuing to see how we can obtain money to deal with this challenge of not being able to run the OCGTs”, Oberholzer said.

But none of the options on the table look like quick fixes. One option would be to receive some of the arrear debt of more than R50-billion which Eskom is currently owed by municipalities. Another would be the receipt of a hefty diesel tax rebate claimed from the South African Revenue Service (SARS), which Eskom’s financials show as just over R3-billion for the year ending 31 March 2022.

In terms of an amendment to Section 75 of the Customs and Excise Act, from 3 August 2022 Eskom is allowed Fuel and Road Accident Fund levy rebates totalling R4.04/litre of diesel used for power generation. From estimates of diesel fuel burned in Eskom’s OCGTs, this R3-billion could therefore easily have risen very substantially.

However, the diesel fuel rebates anticipated by Eskom have been disputed by SARS for more than a year, and the clock is ticking.

Oberholzer maintains that Eskom has no problems in sourcing diesel, although it is largely all imported, and South Africa has no official strategic reserves.
The country as a whole uses between 12- to 14-billion litres of diesel a year, and at a load factor of 15%, the diesel used by the OCGTs operated by both Eskom and the IPPs would amount to about 1.13-billion litres — less than 10% of the total. DM
www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-01 ... for-diesel

I prophecy that the SA power grid will collapse early next winter if not before.
“One wondering thought pollutes the day.” - Mary Shelley

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Re: Only in Effrika

#183 Post by TheGreenAnger » Fri Jan 20, 2023 9:27 pm



As useless as a concrete parachute! =))

A great rant.
“One wondering thought pollutes the day.” - Mary Shelley

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Re: Only in Effrika

#184 Post by Ex-Ascot » Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:31 am

Good one TGA.

The President opened the new terminal at MUB here on Friday. The Minster for Transport said that we should look after it and not vandalise it. For goodness sake. They are not into that sort of thing here. We can't even think of any graffiti here. Also full time security. Although some years ago someone stole all the seats out of an aircraft on the apron. People are sitting in reclinable seats in mud huts around here. :YMPARTY:
'Yes, Madam, I am drunk, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly.' Sir Winston Churchill.

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Re: Only in Effrika

#185 Post by Woody » Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:06 am

Chinese fortune cookie says “ your railways are f****d”

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/trans ... ars-2023-1
When all else fails, read the instructions.

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Re: Only in Effrika

#186 Post by TheGreenAnger » Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:22 am

Woody wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:06 am
Chinese fortune cookie says “ your railways are f****d”

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/trans ... ars-2023-1
Yet another reason how South Africa is being destroyed by the ANC....
The ANC-led eThekwini Municipality wasted R500,000 in 40 minutes after ‘sabotaging’ a special council meeting it had called to elect a new deputy mayor on Thursday.


The planned election of a deputy mayor was scuppered after ANC councillors, along with their unofficial coalition partner, the EFF, and city manager Musa Mbhele failed to arrive at the venue inside the Durban International Convention Centre on Thursday morning.

These members started trickling in for lunch after the meeting collapsed for lack of quorum.

The cost of hosting the special forum has been pegged at R500,000 by opposition councillors who discussed the no-show at the venue. The amount included hiring the venue, additional deployment of the Durban Metro Police, private security, partial road closures, meals for 222 councillors, visiting Amakhosi, the media, guests, those in the public gallery and City officials. Other costs included audio-visual services and live streaming the event.

The city speaker, ANC member Thabani Nyawose, was present, and sat alone on the stage.

Read in Daily Maverick: “In blow to Ramaphosa, fraud-accused Zandile Gumede prevails in ANC’s eThekwini conference vote”

He claimed that he had no idea why his own party was not present. When cornered by angry opposition party members, who at some point called him “a coward”, he failed to give any assurance that he would act against the errant councillors.

“Why the ANC is not here I don’t know. What I have been told, they are at the exhibition centre (based across the road from the ICC) having caucus. When I phoned the EFF whip, they told us the same thing,” said Nyawose.

“I called some councillors but they did not respond or take my call. I have no other explanation except what I have been told by whips.”

During the fracas that ensued, opposition councillors accused the ANC of “sabotaging” the meeting.

‘Insult’
IFP councillor Mdu Nkosi told those present that the wasteful expenditure was a direct insult to city residents.

“You call us to a meeting but your own party is not in a meeting and neither is the city manager. You and the ANC have plotted to make sure this meeting does not continue. It cost R,500.000 to host this meeting. What are you going to say to the city residents?”

Another councillor said the fact that mayor Mxolisi Kaunda was not present showed his lack of respect for the city. “If the mayor cannot respect us and be here, I see no future to be here,” the councillor was heard saying.

On Wednesday morning, the municipality released a media advisory that the special election would take place on Thursday. The election has been in the pipeline since December 2022 when the ANC, which leads a minority city government, removed deputy mayor Philani Mavundla, leader of the Abantu Batho Congress (ABC), and various smaller parties who provided the ANC with the 16 seats it required for a majority.

Read in Daily Maverick: “Beware: Two Zuma men are now in charge of eThekwini”

Mavundla was also removed as chairperson of the powerful human settlements and infrastructure committee.

It has been alleged that the ANC wanted a more pliable deputy mayor and committee chairperson and would elect such a person with the help of the EFF and some smaller parties.

DA leader in the city, Thabani Mthethwa, tried unsuccessfully to get Nyawose to commit to “what he would do” about the errant councillors.

“It is clear that the undertaking we need from you is that you’re going to conduct necessary investigation against those councillors. Your office has incurred fruitless and wasteful expenditure. We want you to commit to taking action against these councillors,” said Mthethwa.

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article ... s-no-show/
“One wondering thought pollutes the day.” - Mary Shelley

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Re: Only in Effrika

#187 Post by TheGreenAnger » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:15 am

TheGreenAnger wrote:
Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:24 pm

I prophecy that the SA power grid will collapse early next winter if not before.
SA’s load shedding crisis, which has been in existence for more than a decade, could soon be declared a National State of Disaster, President Cyril Ramaphosa suggested on Monday night.

At present, 2023 is set to be worse than 2022 in terms of rolling blackouts. Experts have warned that the recovery of Eskom’s coal-fired power stations cannot be achieved in the short term and it will take at least two years to improve the energy availability factor (EAF) from the current 58% to 70%.

The crisis is so dire that Eskom considered implementing permanent Stage 2 and Stage 3 rolling blackouts to give the public more predictability, a statement it has since backtracked on.

Read more in Daily Maverick: “Eskom quickly backpedals on statement on permanent load shedding for two years, hints at ‘good performance’ incentives for staff”

Closing the ANC’s four-day lekgotla at Esselen Park in Ekurhuleni, Ramaphosa said the issue of possibly declaring the energy emergency a National State of Disaster was receiving urgent attention.

Calls for the crisis to be declared a National State of Disaster were made by a number of roleplayers, including traditional leaders, community-based organisations and trade unions. The call was further aired at the party’s lekgotla held over the weekend.

“It was observed that it would be necessary to have a National State of Disaster because that would enable us to have the instruments that would be necessary to fully address the challenge that our nation faces,” Ramaphosa said.

“Work is already under way within the government to establish whether the legal requirements for the declaration of a National State of Disaster are met and what specific actions we would be empowered to undertake to urgently resolve load shedding within the framework of a National State of Disaster,” he said, as those in attendance cheered in agreement.

Ramaphosa’s remarks came after the party received presentations from representatives who shared the devastating impact of rolling blackouts on communities, small businesses and the farming sector.

“The lekgotla agreed that energy security is very central to our country’s national interest, our country’s national sovereignty and national security. Without energy security, we will not be able to achieve our other developmental priorities such as building a transformed, inclusive, growing and job-creating economy,” Ramaphosa said.

The remarks came after several politicians and businesspeople instructed a legal team from seven law firms to demand that the government stop cutting SA’s power. The group also wants fair compensation for the damage caused by rolling blackouts and for the government to play open cards about South Africa’s energy crisis.

Meanwhile, the leader of the opposition, John Steenhuisen, announced that he had instructed lawyers to immediately apply to the high court for an interdict to stop the tariff increase and Stage 6 rolling blackouts amid the government’s poor response to “the biggest crisis our country has faced in three decades of our democracy”.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Eskom’s rolling blackouts — 26 years of ANC meddling, manipulation and vested interests

He said the time “for writing letters and for government talk shops” and for “begging” was over — “it’s now time to take this government head-on”.

The lekgotla took place ahead of an expected Cabinet reshuffle.

On Tuesday, the office of the ANC’s secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, is expected to brief members of the media at its headquarters, Luthuli House, on the outcomes of the lekgotla. - Daily Maverick
“One wondering thought pollutes the day.” - Mary Shelley

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