Hurricanes, or not. A DIY predictor
Posted: Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:08 pm
In keeping with the Project Fear theme of the media, this year was widely advertised as being likely to be an above average hurricane season.
However, so far, none at all.
So, how does one tell whether hurricanes are likely, say for holiday planning?
I should mention at this point that I am not professionally qualified in this. I did spend 4 months monitoring the 2008 hurricane season closely prior to a sailboat crossing.
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Firstly, global warming(TM) has not made a noticeable difference to the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of each season.
.
Here is a useful primer on how the lateness of the first hurricane (average date being July 24th) affects the likely number of named hurricanes
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... =hp-slot-1
In short, the first hurricane being more than three weeks earlier (July 3rd) or later (Aug 14th) than the average means less hurricanes in total that season.
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The two main factors are Sea Surface Temperature and Windshear. This is taken from @MichaelRLowry
.
Note that the windshear axis is inverted to show how the extremes affect each other - the peak represents Low windshear.
.
End of part 1 (of 2), due to link limit
However, so far, none at all.
So, how does one tell whether hurricanes are likely, say for holiday planning?
I should mention at this point that I am not professionally qualified in this. I did spend 4 months monitoring the 2008 hurricane season closely prior to a sailboat crossing.
.
Firstly, global warming(TM) has not made a noticeable difference to the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of each season.
.
Here is a useful primer on how the lateness of the first hurricane (average date being July 24th) affects the likely number of named hurricanes
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... =hp-slot-1
In short, the first hurricane being more than three weeks earlier (July 3rd) or later (Aug 14th) than the average means less hurricanes in total that season.
.
The two main factors are Sea Surface Temperature and Windshear. This is taken from @MichaelRLowry
.
Note that the windshear axis is inverted to show how the extremes affect each other - the peak represents Low windshear.
.
End of part 1 (of 2), due to link limit