Duck and Cover

[PHXPhlyer]

A 5,000-pound satellite is expected to fall to Earth this week

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/19/world/er ... index.html

A European Space Agency satellite is expected to reenter and largely burn up in Earth’s atmosphere on Wednesday morning.

The agency’s Space Debris Office, along with an international surveillance network, is monitoring and tracking the Earth-observing ERS-2 satellite, which is predicted to make its reentry at 6:14 a.m. ET Wednesday, with a 15-hour window of uncertainty. The ESA is also providing live updates on its website.

“As the spacecraft’s reentry is ‘natural’, without the possibility to perform manoeuvers, it is impossible to know exactly where and when it will reenter the atmosphere and begin to burn up,” according to a statement from the agency.

The exact time of the satellite’s reentry remains unclear due to the unpredictability of solar activity, which can change the density of Earth’s atmosphere and how the atmosphere tugs on the satellite. As the sun nears its 11-year cycle’s peak, known as solar maximum, solar activity has been ramping up. Solar maximum is expected to occur later this year.

The sun’s increased activity already had an impact on speeding up the reentry of the ESA’s Aeolus satellite in July 2023.

The ERS-2 satellite has an estimated mass of 5,057 pounds (2,294 kilograms) after depleting its fuel, making it similar in size to other space debris that reenters Earth’s atmosphere every week or so, according to the agency.

At around 50 miles (80 kilometers) above Earth’s surface, the satellite is expected to break apart and the majority of the fragments will burn up in the atmosphere. The agency said that some fragments could reach the planet’s surface, but they won’t contain any harmful substances and will most likely fall into the ocean.

ERS-2’s backstory

The Earth-observing ERS-2 satellite first launched on April 21, 1995, and it was the most sophisticated satellite of its kind at the time to be developed and launched by Europe.

Along with its twin, ERS-1, the satellite collected valuable data on the planet’s polar caps, oceans and land surfaces and observed disasters like flooding and earthquakes in remote areas. The data gathered by ERS-2 is still used today, according to the agency.

In 2011, the agency decided to end the satellite’s operations and deorbit it, rather than adding to the swirl of space junk orbiting the planet.

The satellite executed 66 deorbiting maneuvers in July and August of 2011 before the mission officially concluded later that year on September 11. The maneuvers burned through the rest of the satellite’s fuel and decreased its altitude, setting ERS-2’s orbit on a trajectory to slowly spiral closer to Earth and reenter the atmosphere within 15 years.

The chances of an individual person being injured by space debris each year are less than 1 in 100 billion, about 1.5 million times lower than the risk of being killed in an accident at home, according to the agency.

PP

[PHXPhlyer]

NASA confirms origin of space junk that crashed through Florida home
/ The 1.6-pound metal object should have burned up in the Earth’s atmosphere.

https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/16/2413 ... orida-home

NASA has confirmed suspicions that the strange object that crashed into a Florida home last month did indeed come from the International Space Station (ISS). The agency analyzed the cylindrical object after it tore through the roof and two floors of a house in Naples on March 8th and established that it came from a cargo pallet of aging batteries that was released from the ISS back in 2021.

More specifically, NASA revealed in a blog post on Monday that the offending object was a support component used to mount the batteries on the 5,800-pound (2,630-kilogram) pallet released from the space station. Made from Inconel (a metal alloy that can withstand extreme environments like high temperature, pressure, or mechanical loads), the recovered stanchion weighs 1.6 pounds and measures four inches high by 1.6 inches in diameter — a smidge smaller than a standard can of Red Bull.

Recovered stanchion from the NASA flight support equipment used to mount International Space Station batteries on a cargo pallet.
This image from NASA shows a comparison between the recovered stanchion (right) and what it would have originally looked like (left). Image: NASA



It’s not unheard of for space-related junk to find its way back to Earth — components from rockets launched by SpaceX and (more recently) the China National Space Administration have crashed into properties, for example, though such debris typically burns up in the atmosphere. NASA said that also should have happened in this incident, and it’s now trying to work out why it didn’t.

“The hardware was expected to fully burn up during entry through Earth’s atmosphere on March 8, 2024,” said NASA. “The International Space Station will perform a detailed investigation of the jettison and re-entry analysis to determine the cause of the debris survival and to update modeling and analysis, as needed. These models require detailed input parameters and are regularly updated when debris is found to have survived atmospheric re-entry to the ground.”

PP

[k3k3]

...and are regularly updated when debris is found to have survived atmospheric re-entry to the ground.

Not that uncommon then?

[PHXPhlyer]

A chunk of space debris found in N.C. came from a SpaceX capsule, NASA says
The 3-foot, 90-pound piece of a SpaceX Crew Dragon vehicle was found by an employee of a mountaintop resort near Asheville.

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/n ... rcna159135

See link for pics.

A large chunk of space debris that was discovered last month on a mountain trail in North Carolina came from a SpaceX capsule that had journeyed to the International Space Station, NASA has confirmed.

The slab of debris was found in late May by an employee of The Glamping Collective, a luxury mountaintop resort in Haywood County, near Asheville.

“It was kind of wicked looking,” said Justin Clontz, who performs ground maintenance for the collective and found the slab.

Now, NASA says, the roughly 3-foot piece came from the “trunk” or service module of a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule that carried four astronauts home to Earth from the International Space Station on March 12.

The charred slab of debris that came from a SpaceX capsule
The roughly 90-pound piece of space debris was covered in carbon fiber weaving.The Glamping Collective
The trunk is at the base of the Crew Dragon spacecraft, under where the astronauts sit, and is typically used to carry cargo. It is covered in solar panels that provide power “during flight and while on-station,” according to SpaceX’s website.

That section of the vehicle is jettisoned shortly before the capsule re-enters Earth’s atmosphere. NASA said the trunk was expected to burn up fully in the atmosphere, but its discovery, along with several others, suggest parts of the vehicle are capable of surviving the fiery trip.

SpaceX did not immediately return a request for comment.

The piece Clontz found was charred and covered in carbon fiber weaving. It weighs about 90 pounds — too awkward and big for one person to carry — and he said he wasn’t initially sure if it was safe to touch.

“It’s just something that you don’t normally see,” Clontz said. “I’ve seen spaceships and stuff on TV, but the average person doesn’t get to see it up close.”

Some smaller pieces of debris were also found in two residents’ yards in nearby towns, according to local news reports.

In its statement, NASA said it was “unaware of any structural damage or injuries resulting from these findings.”

The charred slab of debris that came from a SpaceX capsule
NASA confirmed that the debris came from the trunk section of a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule.The Glamping Collective
NASA said the debris was from SpaceX’s Crew-7 mission, which launched to space on Aug. 26, 2023, then returned after a six-month expedition at the space station.

Last month, a piece of suspected trunk debris from a separate SpaceX mission was found in a farmer’s field in Saskatchewan, Canada, according to NASA.

An uncrewed SpaceX mission to deliver supplies to the space station also resulted in debris falling over Saudi Arabia, the agency said.

Debris from a Crew Dragon trunk landed in Colorado last year, as well, and a similar incident occurred in 2022 in Australia, NASA said.

A 1.6-pound piece of metal space debris — though not from a SpaceX vehicle — tore through a home in Naples, Florida, in March. It came from a cargo pallet that had been intentionally released from the International Space Station.

A metal object that had been used to mount International Space Station batteries on a cargo pallet struck a home in Naples, Florida, on March 8.NASA
The Florida family who owns the home is suing NASA over the damage, and alleging the incident also caused them emotional stress.

In response to questions about that lawsuit, Jimi Russell, a public affairs officer for NASA’s space operations, said in an email that it “would not be appropriate for NASA to comment on a pending claim.”

It’s common for space agencies and companies to let defunct hardware burn up in the atmosphere, but occasionally some pieces do survive re-entry. Although it's rare for space debris to fall over populated areas, given that most of the planet is covered in ocean, the recent events raise questions about whether that risk may grow as launches to space become more frequent.

NASA said that if people encounter what they suspect is SpaceX debris, they can contact the company’s debris hotline (1-866-623-0234 or recovery@spacex.com).

A Crew Dragon capsule — with its trunk section attached — is currently parked at the International Space Station. NASA said that spacecraft is expected to return to Earth with its crew later this summer.

The charred slab of debris that came from a SpaceX capsule
The strange-looking object was found on a mountain trail in North Carolina.The Glamping Collective
The agency said it plans to work with SpaceX to explore “additional solutions as we learn from the discovered debris.”

“NASA and SpaceX remain committed to safeguarding the public, astronauts, and ground crews,” the agency said.

Clontz said the space debris chunk is now on display at The Glamping Collective behind a glass case. So far, neither SpaceX nor NASA has asked to retrieve it, he said.

“Every time I go look at it, I think how cool it is,” Clontz said. “To think that it launched from Florida, went to outer space and came back down and a piece of it flew off right over North Carolina is pretty cool.”

PP

[Karearea]

I'd be pretty irritated if that landed in my living-room

[PHXPhlyer]

Space debris crash in Kenya village believed to be from leftover rocket hardware

https://www.space.com/space-exploration ... SmartBrief

Officials with the Kenya Space Agency (KSA) officials in Nairobia have reported that a large metallic ring fell from the sky on Dec. 30 , crashing "red-hot" into Mukuku village, in Makueni county – in the country's south.

Who knew Keyna had a Space Agency?

Investigators think the object, which is roughly 8 feet (2.5 meters) in diameter and weighing some 1,100 pounds (500 kilograms), is actually a piece of space debris, rocket leftovers that came crashing down, reportedly within the village at roughly 3 p.m. local time.

The KSA "secured the area and retrieved the debris, which is now under the Agency's custody for further investigation."

However, sky watching veteran and reentry tracker, Jonathan McDowell who works at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, told Inside Outer Space that there is "no obvious space candidate. I am not convinced it's not from an airplane. Don’t see obvious evidence of reentry heating."

On the other hand, Darren McKnight, a space debris expert at LeoLabs, points out that sometimes incoming space debris stays covered by some "sacrificial mass" that burns up and leaves the raw hardware to reenter.

So what is the object?

Official statement

Following the discovery of a metallic fragment of a space object in Mukuku Village, Makueni County, the Kenya Space Agency has issued the following statement, as posted on X (formerly Twitter):

The agency thanked the residents of Mukuku Village, local leadership, and media outlets for their swift actions in reporting and disseminating the incident.

Possible link?
An early review by Inside Outer Space of the Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (CORDS) Reentry Database suggested a possible link to an incoming rocket body associated with an Atlas Centaur launch back in 2004.

That rocket body leftover, tagged as object 28385, was predicted to reenter on Dec. 30 at 21:33 UTC ± 2 hours, with a flight path taking it over Africa.

The Atlas Centaur rocketed out of Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Aug. 31, 2004 carrying a classified USA-179 satellite.

According to the NASA Space Science Data Coordination Archive, USA-179 is an American military satellite for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), launched by an Atlas 2AS rocket from Cape Canaveral. It was the last flight of the Atlas 2 models.

However, reentry tracker McDowell said U.S. Space Force data showed the 28385 rocket stage reentered over Lake Baikal in Russia.

So yes, further official, KSA assessment of this speculative space debris prospect is likely forthcoming.

In an independent review by Inside Outer Space to better identify the nature of the skyfall, there’s an interesting, but still speculative photo comparison – that could point to some design features of manufactured booster-related hardware and techniques used.

As example, Roscosmos enterprise images of upgraded Angara-A5M rocket hardware seem telling, perhaps, or suggest a type of fabrication process commonly used in the booster-making business by various firms.

Specialists from the Khrunichev Center manufacture parts and components for the first two Angara-A5M launch vehicles, as well as test benches for testing and fine-tuning modern rocket manufacturing technologies.

Use of new technologies in the manufacture of key structural elements with improved weight characteristics relative to the standard Angara-A5 design.

PP

[PHXPhlyer]

NASA says that, yes, an asteroid buzzing by in 2032 could hit Earth
But — importantly — the chances are still "extremely low," though they have ticked up since the object was first detected.

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/n ... rcna191951

An asteroid that measures up to 300 feet across could smack into Earth in 2032, and while NASA says the chances of a collision are “extremely low,” the probability has been increasing since the space rock was discovered weeks ago.

NASA said last week that there is currently a 2.3% (or 1 in 43) chance that the asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, will hit Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. While still tiny, that probability nearly doubled from the agency’s initial estimate of 1.2% in late January.

At that time, NASA said that “no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%.”

The agency is monitoring the asteroid’s orbit and said that the object’s “impact hazard” could be ruled out eventually. But in a blog post about the space rock, the agency said it is “also possible its impact probability will continue to rise” as more details become clear.

NASA estimates that the asteroid measures between 130 feet and 300 feet across. In the unlikely event that it did hit Earth, the asteroid would likely “impact at a high velocity” of roughly 38,000 mph, according to the Center for Near Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

A space rock of that size would likely cause local damage, but not threaten the entire planet or humanity, as might be the case if a much larger asteroid was on a collision course with Earth.

The asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile on Dec. 27, 2024. Since then, researchers have been studying the space rock using ground-based telescopes.

NASA said the asteroid will continue to be visible to ground-based observatories through April. After that, the space rock will be too faint to see until around June 2028.

The agency’s James Webb Space Telescope will train its eyes on the asteroid in March to better assess its size, according to NASA.

PP

[PHXPhlyer]

Soviet-era spacecraft is set to plunge to Earth a half-century after its failed launch to Venus
The Soviet Union launched the spacecraft known as Kosmos 482 in 1972, but it never made it out of Earth orbit because of a rocket malfunction.

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/s ... rcna204234

A Soviet-era spacecraft meant to land on Venus in the 1970s is expected to soon plunge uncontrolled back to Earth.

It’s too early to know where the half-ton mass of metal might come down or how much of it will survive reentry, according to space debris-tracking experts.

Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek predicts the failed spacecraft will reenter around May 10. He estimates it will come crashing in at 150 mph (242 kph), if it remains intact.

“While not without risk, we should not be too worried,” Langbroek said in an email.

The object is relatively small and, even if it doesn’t break apart, “the risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year. You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime,” he said.

The chance of the spacecraft actually hitting someone or something is small, he added. “But it cannot be completely excluded.”

The Soviet Union launched the spacecraft known as Kosmos 482 in 1972, one of a series of Venus missions. But it never made it out of Earth orbit because of a rocket malfunction.

Most of it came tumbling down within a decade. But Langbroek and others believe the landing capsule itself — a spherical object about 3 feet (1 meter) in diameter — has been circling the world in a highly elliptical orbit for the past 53 years, gradually dropping in altitude.

It’s quite possible that the 1,000-pound-plus (nearly 500-kilogram) spacecraft will survive reentry. It was built to withstand a descent through the carbon dioxide-thick atmosphere of Venus, said Langbroek of Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.

Experts doubt the parachute system would work after so many years. The heat shield may also be compromised after so long in orbit.

It would be better if the heat shield fails, which would cause the spacecraft to burn up during its dive through the atmosphere, the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics’ Jonathan McDowell said in an email. But if the heat shield holds, “it’ll reenter intact and you have a half-ton metal object falling from the sky.”

The spacecraft could reenter anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, or as far north as London and Edmonton in Alberta, Canada, almost all the way down to South America’s Cape Horn. But since most of the planet is water, “chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean,” Langbroek said.

PP

[Boac]

It has just whizzed over my head (yes, I heard the noise...) at its new perigee of 93 miles which is about 6m lower than yesterday, so not long to go! Starting on a slit trench just in case....

[Woody]

Anyone know of a spare Anderson shelter

[Boac]

You can have mine when I've finished with it.

[Boac]

Early hours of 10/6 GMT.

[PHXPhlyer]

Narrowed down to between 52^oN and 52^oS.

PP

[Boac]

47.7511° N, 120.7401° W ?

[PHXPhlyer]

47.7511° N, 120.7401° W ?

Is that a SWAG or do you have some extra insight?

PP

[Karearea]

Narrowed down to between 52^oN and 52^oS.

PP

Neat.

If I get something like a red-hot washing machine landing in my house I shall be very irked

[Boac]

Relax, Karearea - it appears to have landed in the Indian Ocean west of Jakarta at 0624 (Z)

[Woody]

You can keep your Anderson shelter for now

[Karearea]

... it appears to have landed in the Indian Ocean west of Jakarta at 0624 (Z)

Probably.

A failed Soviet Venus lander's long space odyssey has come to an end.

The Kosmos 482 probe crashed to Earth today (May 10) after circling our planet for more than five decades. Reentry occurred at 2:24 a.m. ET (0624 GMT or 9:24 a.m. Moscow time) over the Indian Ocean west of Jakarta, Indonesia, according to Russia's space agency Roscosmos. Kosmos 482 appears to have fallen harmlessly into the sea.

That's just one estimate, however; other space agencies and tracking organizations predicted different reentry locations, from the South Asian mainland to the eastern Pacific. It's unclear when or if we'll get a definitive answer to where Kosmos 482 came down. ...

space.com: Failed Soviet Venus lander Kosmos 482 crashes to Earth after 53 years in orbit