First North Korean Longe-range Nuclear weapon?

[Boac]

OK - where will the first one (or more) go - and why?

[500N]

IMHO, a bit Irrelevant.

They fire or more importantly even look like firing one, the question is how long to the impact of the reply - multiple missiles - or the first strike because I really don't think they would get away with it launching a live Nuclear one.

And IMHO, the US and allies will possibly position stuff to take it out in flight of they can.


But in answer to your question, Japan.

[Clever and Cunning.]

Somehow I believe that if Trump was president, that missile would have just barely left North Korean airspace and it would have accidently blown up.

But never fear, as John Hill will be here soon justifying the ICBM firing even if it did have a nuclear devise.

[Boac]

Never mind 'justifying' it, can he tell us where it will go?

[boing]

And therein lies the tale. The Chinese do not want big ugly mushrooms on their border so this launch will increase the Chinese pressure on NK. The Chinese must be getting to the state where any support of NK provides no return. It has been useful to have NK as a buffer state from SK but this is no longer worth the risks involved. If someone could find a way to unify N and S and still guarantee the Chinese a neutral border zone Fat One would be on the streets.

[500N]

If someone could find a way to unify N and S and still guarantee the Chinese a neutral border zone Fat One would be on the streets.

Spot on.

Unify NK & SK and move the NK / China border or cut a bit off as a buffer zone that they control.

[boing]

China could, of course, squash NK. The trouble being that SK and NK are not separate countries, they only have a cease fire border not a national boarder, so any attack on NK would technically be an attack on SK too. What China would like to see is a unified Korea but with no military presence in the old north. With some bloodshed this could be arranged but the US would have to be completely out of the game as far as ground troops are concerned during and after the fighting.