The US Hamster Wheel

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Jetex Jim
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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3301 Post by Jetex Jim » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:03 pm

And there's more.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/national-d ... fter-wwii/
Despite President Trump's declaration that he would eliminate the national debt over eight years, the debt-to-Gross Domestic Product ratio has reached its highest level since after World War II, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). And if current law and spending levels remain unchanged, national debt will be nearly the size of the economy by 2028.

"At 78 percent of gross domestic product, federal debt held by the public is now at its highest level since shortly after World War II," the CBO found. "If current laws generally remained unchanged, the Congressional Budget Office projects, growing budget deficits would boost that debt sharply over the next 30 years; it would approach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the next decade and 152 percent by 2048. That amount would be the highest in the nation's history by far."

The new report to Congress paints a grim fiscal outlook for the next three decades, blaming sharp increases in net interest costs, Social Security and Medicare spending, and generally flat revenues over the next few years. In a nutshell, according to the CBO, spending is growing rapidly year over year — and revenues and even the growth of the economy just aren't keeping up with the pace.

In April 2017, Mr. Trump told the Washington Post he intended to eliminate the national debt "over a period of eight years." But his administration's push for tax cuts, combined with significant spending increases passed by Congress and signed into law by the president on top of already increasing non-discretionary spending, have driven the debt up, not pulled it down. The national debt topped $21 trillion for the first time in U.S. history earlier this year.

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3302 Post by Undried Plum » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:26 pm

Jetex Jim wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:03 pm
his administration's push for tax cuts, combined with significant spending increases .... have driven the debt up, not pulled it down.

Who'da thunk that would happen?

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3303 Post by Cacophonix » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:39 pm

Trump will bankrupt America both financially and morally pretty much as he has left a snail trail of business failures and sleaze behind him in the past.

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3304 Post by Undried Plum » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:50 pm

His philosophy seems to be to grab everything by the piss-flaps and then boast about it.

That's all there is to him.

Other than that, he's what we in Scotland call a toom tabard (empty shirt).

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3305 Post by Seenenough » Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:16 pm

Cacophonix wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:39 pm
Trump will bankrupt America both financially and morally pretty much as he has left a snail trail of business failures and sleaze behind him in the past.

Caco
Caco-How should the USA fund its large trade deficits that its citizens generate each year with China,Japan, South Korea, and the EU?

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3306 Post by John Hill » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:36 pm

Seenenough wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:16 pm
Caco-How should the USA fund its large trade deficits that its citizens generate each year with China,Japan, South Korea, and the EU?
Oh, I see that the 'citizens' are to blame for state of affairs. :(
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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3307 Post by Seenenough » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:51 pm

John Hill wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:36 pm
Seenenough wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:16 pm
Caco-How should the USA fund its large trade deficits that its citizens generate each year with China,Japan, South Korea, and the EU?
Oh, I see that the 'citizens' are to blame for state of affairs. :(
The citizens are to ones who buy the "Made in China"goods.

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3308 Post by Seenenough » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:57 pm

Seenenough wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:51 pm
John Hill wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:36 pm
Seenenough wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:16 pm
Caco-How should the USA fund its large trade deficits that its citizens generate each year with China,Japan, South Korea, and the EU?
Oh, I see that the 'citizens' are to blame for state of affairs. :(
The citizens are to ones who buy the "Made in China"goods.
On their credit cards,I omitted to add.

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3309 Post by John Hill » Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:37 pm

I hope they are buying direct from China and avoiding the charges of any US 'middle man'.
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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3310 Post by John Hill » Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:43 pm

I hope they are buying direct from China and avoiding the charges of any US 'middle man'.
To answer your question, the USA fund its large trade deficit with China by imposing tariffs on imports.
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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3311 Post by Seenenough » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:39 am

John Hill wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:43 pm
I hope they are buying direct from China and avoiding the charges of any US 'middle man'.
To answer your question, the USA fund its large trade deficit with China by imposing tariffs on imports.
It still does not explain how the US fund the now +/- $350-$400 Billion trade deficit (previously over $500 Billion )with China each year.The Tariffs come nowhere close to this deficit amount.

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3312 Post by Seenenough » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:42 am

And tonight the Democrats and the media are arguing that Trump does not have the right to nominate the next AG for consideratin by the Senate.They are holding the position that Rosenstein should automatically become the next AG.

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3313 Post by John Hill » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:56 am

Seenenough wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:39 am
It still does not explain how the US fund the now +/- $350-$400 Billion trade deficit (previously over $500 Billion )with China each year.The Tariffs come nowhere close to this deficit amount.
Fake talk!
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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3314 Post by Jetex Jim » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:25 am

And this is pertinent to Trump's vote buying strategy in the coal belt.
https://www.ft.com/content/af6915c8-e2e ... 2428919cee
The cost of new wind and solar power generation has fallen below the cost of running existing coal-fired plants in many parts of the US, threatening to wreck President Donald Trump’s hopes of reviving the mining industry.

New estimates published on Thursday by Lazard, the investment bank, show that it can often be profitable for US generation companies to shut working coal plants and replace their output with wind and solar power.

The calculations suggest that closures of coal-fired plants are likely to continue, eroding US demand for coal and jeopardising Mr Trump’s ambition to “put our coal miners back to work”.

The falling cost of renewable energy is adding to the pressure from cheap gas and stagnant demand for electricity, which have cut US coal power output by more than 40 per cent since 2007.

Retirements of US coal-fired plants are expected to hit a record high this year, and companies including FirstEnergy and American Electric Power have in the past few months announced further closures. Many of the plants being shuttered are reaching the end of their working lives, but even some relatively new capacity is being shut because it is no longer economically viable.

Vistra Energy said last year it was shutting coal plants in Texas including one that had brought its latest unit into service only in 2009.

According to Lazard, the all-in levelised cost of electricity from a new wind farm in the US is $29-$56 per megawatt hour before any subsidies — such as the federal Production Tax Credit, which is being phased out by 2024. The marginal cost of operating a coal plant is $27-$45 per MWh. So there are often times and places where building a wind farm even without any subsidy would make sense. Add in the PTC, which can cut the cost of wind power to as little as $14 per MWh, and the case becomes even stronger.

George Bilicic, head of power, energy and infrastructure at Lazard, said utilities could often make the case to regulators that it would be cheaper to shut coal-fired plants and replace them with renewables and energy efficiency improvements, delivering both higher returns for the companies and lower bills for customers.

Xcel Energy, the Minneapolis-based utility group, is one of the pioneers of this model, In August, the regulator in Colorado approved its plan to shut 660 megawatts of coal-fired capacity and replace it with 1,100MW of wind, 700MW of solar and 275MW of battery storage. The company said the plan would save about $200m for customers.

Ben Fowke, Xcel’s chief executive, said in a speech at the annual convention of the Edison Electric Institute, the industry group, in June: “I will tell you, it's not a matter of if we're going to retire our coal fleet in this nation, it's just a matter of when.”

Other companies are putting more emphasis on energy efficiency. Public Service Enterprise Group, the New Jersey utility, in September proposed to its state regulator a $4bn six-year investment plan based principally on energy efficiency improvements, including financial incentives to buy more efficient appliances, smart thermostats and other equipment. The company closed its last two coal-fired plants in New Jersey last year.

Ralph Izzo, PSEG’s chief executive, told the Financial Times that its customers’ bills had dropped 30 per cent over the past 10 years, principally because of the plunge in the cost of gas caused by the shale revolution. Now gas prices had levelled off, he saw curbing power use would be the best way to reduce customers’ bills, and to “decouple” the company’s revenues from the number of megawatt hours it sold. “It really is a no-brainer,” he said. 

US coal production picked up last year, helped by strong exports. The industry employs about 2,100 more people than it did when Mr Trump took office, an increase of about 4 per cent.


Output has been falling back again, however, and is expected to drop next year to close to its level in 2016, which was the lowest since the early 1980s. Westmoreland Coal, a Colorado-based mining company, last month filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection with debts of about $1.4bn.

The Trump administration has been looking at ideas for subsidising coal and nuclear plants, on the grounds that the increasing reliance of US grids on gas and renewable energy exposes them to risks of blackouts in extreme conditions such as a period of severe cold weather. A first attempt launched last year was rejected by federal regulators, however, and although Mr Trump has alluded to a new plan, the administration has not yet published any formal proposals.

“There is a lot of smoke and not much fire,” said Seth Feaster of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a think-tank that supports renewables. 


“Policy is not easy to turn on a dime, even if you want to.”

Utilities are making investment decisions that could last for decades, he added, and are unlikely to change course based on a policy that could be abandoned if Mr Trump fails to win re-election in two years’ time.
Note also the bold text,

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3315 Post by Seenenough » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:53 am

John Hill wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:56 am
Seenenough wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:39 am
It still does not explain how the US fund the now +/- $350-$400 Billion trade deficit (previously over $500 Billion )with China each year.The Tariffs come nowhere close to this deficit amount.
Fake talk!
Go and check a web site called the balance.com which deals with, trade balances and deficits and many issues related to the trading between the US and other countries.

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3316 Post by Seenenough » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:58 am

and search for - US Trade deficit.

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3317 Post by BenThere » Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:42 pm

Jetex Jim,

I'm neutral on the renewables vs. coal debate. The article you posted is clearly on the side of renewables and makes a few good points. On the other hand, solar and wind have drawbacks that the article didn't address, such as the killing of rare species, the esthetic degradation of the landscape, and the cost without subsidies. The advantages of coal are that the US has centuries of supply, the coal plants and infrastructure are in place, having operated for a long time, clean air technology continues to advance with regard to burning coal, and most importantly, coal-fired energy is available on demand and not subject to the vagaries of sun and wind power.

As of now, coal, if unfettered by adversaries of the industry, remains the most efficient fuel for the production of electric power from a cost per BTU standpoint. And the use of it is not going away. China and India alone guarantee that. I would point to the enormous cost Germany has experienced converting from coal and nuclear to solar and wind. Maybe it's worth it to do that, but so far I think it put a real dent into Germany's economy and the energy costs of everyday Germans, with very little payoff.

Convince me otherwise and I'll go along. I do like the idea of the clean perpetual motion machine solar and wind advocates promise us. But so far, they haven't delivered and remain dependent on extensive government subsidies to survive in the marketplace. And they're killing billions of birds while scarring the landscape. We can talk later about the reported physiological detriments many have reported who live near the twirling blades of wind towers.

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3318 Post by Cacophonix » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:54 pm

The Chinese (for example) will only be prepared to prop up their economy and that of the USA by buying US Treasury Bonds as long as the US continues to play ball by trading. The use of overly harsh US tariffs and concerns about the crippling debt and deficit in the US ultimately will result in a bond fire sale and the emperor will be revealed to have no clothes and a small penis to boot. The whole rotten house of cards will collapse, wars will ensure, famine will stalk the land I will be hard pressed to fund my aviation addiction and I will personally blame BenThere in his role as Mr Norman Muller, the typical example of the perfectly average short-sighted Trump supporter!

I suspect that Seenenough, will have lived up to his name and got out of the game before it all collapses.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story)

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3319 Post by Seenenough » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:00 pm

Cacophonix wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:54 pm
The Chinese (for example) will only be prepared to prop up their economy and that of the USA by buying US Treasury Bonds as long as the US continues to play ball by trading. The use of overly harsh US tariffs and concerns about the crippling debt and deficit in the US ultimately will result in a bond fire sale and the emperor will be revealed to have no clothes and a small penis to boot. The whole rotten house of cards will collapse, wars will ensure, famine will stalk the land I will be hard pressed to fund my aviation addiction and I will personally blame BenThere in his role as Mr George Abnego, the typical example of the perfectly average short-sighted Trump supporter!

I suspect the seenenough, will have lived up to his name and got out of the game before it all collapses.

Caco
All the us are asking is that tarriffs be applied equally on both sides and that the Chinese government stop subsiding their counties exports.

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Re: The US Hamster Wheel

#3320 Post by Cacophonix » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:09 pm

Seenenough wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:00 pm
Cacophonix wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:54 pm
The Chinese (for example) will only be prepared to prop up their economy and that of the USA by buying US Treasury Bonds as long as the US continues to play ball by trading. The use of overly harsh US tariffs and concerns about the crippling debt and deficit in the US ultimately will result in a bond fire sale and the emperor will be revealed to have no clothes and a small penis to boot. The whole rotten house of cards will collapse, wars will ensure, famine will stalk the land I will be hard pressed to fund my aviation addiction and I will personally blame BenThere in his role as Mr George Abnego Norman Muller, the typical example of the perfectly average short-sighted Trump supporter!

I suspect the seenenough, will have lived up to his name and got out of the game before it all collapses.

Caco
All the us are asking is that tarriffs be applied equally on both sides and that the Chinese government stop subsiding their counties exports.

One just has to look at how the US leverages the use of the dollar world wide and indirect subsidies (vide. the US aircraft industry for example ) to see that the USA is hardly innocent of using subsidies and or other nefarious activities, including destabilising competitors by whatever means possible, up to and including war.

Caco
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