Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The linked map shows how the Ukrainian counterattack east of Kharkiv may have been conducted. There's a lot of interesting detail. It should be seen as techno fiction.
I have no idea as to its authenticity.
However, it's how I outlined doing it back in May, and the plan described fits with what we know happened on the ground.
I would specifically question how much stuff the Russians managed to withdraw with NE of Izyum.
It's a big image, hence the link.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcVE8FYXoAE ... =4096x4096

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Always worth a regular repost!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcV0TnSXoAY ... name=small

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

From a strategic point of view, the last rail line from the north, supplying Luhansk and Donetsk from Russia, runs through Starobil's'k.
This is about 65 miles SE of Kupyansk, with Svatove about halfway there.
There are likely no major forces based there, though Russian troops retreating from Kupyansk/Svatove may have been sent there to defend it.

Once Starobil's'k falls, all supplies to the Luhansk and Donetsk Republics have to come from the east, with a much longer route.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

At least 4 Kalibr cruise missile carriers sortied from Sevastopol naval base, 3 corvettes and a sub.
It would seem Russia may retaliate for the Khakiv front debacle with a large missile attack on Ukraine

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukrainian flag displayed on a statue, geolocated by me in central Vovchansk.
No further confirmation.
Russian border, north of Kharkiv. Village of Kozacha Lopan.
Russian Ministry of Defence making various bogus claims about Ukrainians using human shields in Kazachya Lopan (sic), which infers that the Ukes must now occupy it.
A nice lady with a bicycle appears to have just raised a Ukrainian flag outside the village's government office.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Russians literally getting their @sses kicked, but the Uke medics are kindly treating them for their wounds afterwards



Chinese social media is highly controlled by the CCP. As of yesterday they appear to have stopped censoring negative comments/jokes on Russian military performance.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Lyptsi, 17 miles north of Kharkiv, now confirmed liberated.
It would appear that the Russians have completed their withdrawal from the whole area north of Kharkiv - no more shelling of the city!

The nearest Russian-occupied areas would now be NE of a line from Vovchansk to Kupyansk. However, there is no strategic point in attempting to hold this land, so I suspect all Russian forces west of the Oskil river have been withdrawn over the Russian border. There have been no reports from this area.

East of the Oskil river, the only point in holding the land north of Severodonetsk would be the cities of Svatove and Starobil's'k, and the N-S rail line through the latter previously mentioned. These may already have fallen to the Ukes (but there's nothing confirmed).

I would thus expect the Russians to form an E-W defensive line between Severodonetsk and the Russian border, to protect Luhansk and Donetsk, and the supply lines to same.

Key factors in defending the Luhansk and Donetsk republics in the coming days include:
1)How strongly the Russians can defend the cities around Severodonetsk, including Lysychansk, Kreminna, and Rubizhne.
2)The reaction of the civilian population of the Republics to the total collapse of the Kharkiv front. Partisan activity may increase rapidly, and the Russian-leaning inhabitants might decide they are better off running for Russia or siding with the Uke government.
3)How quickly the Ukes can shift the forces that have pushed the Russians north to their border down to the SE cities, and or into a big sweep around along the Russian border eastwards.
4)What proportion of forces the Ukes will leave to protect the northern border (a few teens with water pistols would be my vote - "he who defends everything, defends nothing" Frederick the Great)
5)The logistics situation for both sides.

I am assuming the Ukes will make no attempt to cross the Russian border.
I am also assuming the Russians have no readily-deployable reserves, based on yesterday's expletive-laden moan from the Russian MoD official, and the fact that they should already have been using them in the last week.

Fingers crossed.

Update: in the last 10 minutes, a Ukrainian official has said there is a queue 12km long for the border crossing from Luhansk to Russia, which I think answers point 2 above.

Update 2: Uke flag seen flying in Varvarivka, NE of Vovchansk up by the border, so it would seem the Russians have indeed abandoned the area mentioned in the second para.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

We know you love them.....

...so, by popular demand,.....

The Tractors are back !!!



I would think every Ukrainian farmer could have a T-72 of his own after the number the Rooskies have left behind. BMPs for the kids!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Official vid of use of drone-corrected M777 arty in Kherson region



I have geolocated it is here:
47.4321156,33.4181453

As of yesterday, this was just behind the front line in the area, so looks like very recent video

[TheGreenAnger]

Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin-appointed leader of Chechnya, has criticised the Russian army’s leadership after it appeared to be caught off guard by Ukraine’s fightback against the Russian invasion in the north-east.

In a sign that the Kremlin may face serious fallout over the loss of territory that the Russian occupation administrations had repeatedly stated they planned to keep “for ever”, Kadyrov also suggested that Vladimir Putin might not be aware of the real state of affairs.

“They have made mistakes and I think they will draw the necessary conclusions,” Kadyrov said in an audio message posted to his Telegram channel on Sunday.

“If today or tomorrow no changes in strategy are made, I will be forced to speak with the leadership of the defence ministry and the leadership of the country to explain the real situation on the ground to them. It’s a very interesting situation. It’s astounding, I would say,” said Kadyrov, a former rebel turned Kremlin ally who rules Chechnya – a Russian republic in the Caucasus – with an iron fist and has a paramilitary force at his command.

Since the invasion in February, the Kremlin has focused on silencing liberal voices critical of the war, but as things go sour on the battlefield, Putin faces a headache with what to do with former cheerleaders who want Russia to commit more forces to the war to turn the tide.

Many units from Chechnya have taken part in Russia’s war effort, and while Kadyrov is ostensibly hyper-loyal to Moscow, he is one of the few Russian political figures whose messaging the Kremlin does not fully control.

All eyes will be on how Putin responds to the retreat. He has previously glossed over claims that he made a terrible miscalculation in February when he thought the Russian army could overrun Ukraine in a matter of days. In a recent appearance he said Russia had “lost nothing” during the war, but the major losses of recent days could be a harder sell to the Russian population.

On Saturday, as the disastrous news from the front trickled through, Putin was busy opening a huge observation wheel in a Moscow park as part of celebrations for Moscow Day. Military bloggers sharply criticised him for going ahead with the celebrations.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ne-retreat

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Interesting how far behind the war the MSM reporters are.
The Guardian reckons the Uke armed forces are within 30 miles of the border - they are AT the border now.
They seem to be relying on official communiques only, no research at all. Journalists, my @rse.
I haven't even bothered looking at the MSM to find out what is going on.

Most of my sources - people who are obviously in contact with people in occupied towns, are specifically not reporting on what is happening east of Kupyansk-Izyum.
Part of the reason is that, for at least 3 weeks after Kyiv was relieved, they were still finding groups of Rooskie soldiers in basements and woods who hadn't a clue what was going on.
Another reason is that they don't want Ukes returning to their villages till they've done some mine/boobytrap clearing. There have been some tragic incidents.

However, since the retreat from Kharkiv west of Kupyansk-Izyum is both complete and rapid, reporting is still happening.
One presumes the rout was so rapid that there was neither the time nor the inclination to plant boobytraps.
I have tried to outline the strategy which will be involved, but like my sources will not be giving anything away about tactical progress at the front lines, wherever they now may be.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

So, until I can tell you some stuff that won't get Ukes killed, I will be filling in with some interesting side stories



You can in fact plug 287 phone chargers into a standard 15A, 230V supply without overloading it. I used to teach this to my physics students, along with all the "useless" stuff like Momentum and Quantum Mechanics.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

If you don't have some decent booze in the house for celebrations, and have time to pop down the Offie, now would be the time to do it.
There may well be remarkable news in the next day, possibly the next 3 hours.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Most of you will know that the purpose of Kadyrov's units was, like the NKVD in WW2, to shoot any of their "own side" who decided retreat was better than charging at the enemy.
I am reading reports that fighting has broken out between frontline units and the Kadyrovski. I cannot say where yet.

[boing]

Love what appears to be an electric razor being charged in the photo. What's the point of a stiff upper lip if people can't see it.

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Putin has just fired the Lt Gen in charge of the entire Western Military District. 15 days in post.

Moscow city councilors have just called for Putin's resignation. The St Petersburg Duma did that earlier in the week and were all arrested, but there's obviously a bit of a wave started.

Love what appears to be an electric razor being charged in the photo. What's the point of a stiff upper lip if people can't see it.

...probably doesn't want tomorrow's champagne or beer froth getting stuck in his 'tache.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Complete blackout in Kharkiv.
Also at least partial blackouts recorded in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava.
Maybe missile strikes on power infrastructure, maybe cyber or physical sabotage.
Looks like Putin's last chuck of the dice.

[boing]

I think Kadyrov's speech could be removing the rock which starts the landslide. The Russian Generals are not going to want to accept blame for the mistakes so it is going to become a case of "all of us" sticking together versus "him" and once that starts it will snowball throughout the hierarchy.. The Russian population is so conditioned that Russia is supreme they will not believe the system is inherently flawed, someone must have made a mistake so when the war falls apart they will look for the sacrificial lamb.

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[larsssnowpharter]

Many, many interesting developments. A personal thanks to Fox 3 for his regular updates.

Now that the Ukes are at the Russian border they are within artillery range of Belgorod, reportedly the major Russian logistics hub supporting their war and thus, in my view, making its infrastructure and vehicle, ammo parks etc a legitimate target in a military sense. Previous attacks have been denied by the Ukes.

But now? Too politically risky?

[G-CPTN]

A personal thanks to Fox 3 for his regular updates.

+1