Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[prospector]

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the ... pipelines/

And who are the only people to have hinted months ago that such a thing was possible, none other than Joe Biden and Victoria Nuland, on a TV interview that is still available.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=tu ... tail&FORM=

[Boac]

Sadly quiet here while we wait for good news from Fox3, but the latest news is that following Poo-Tins annexation, Ukraine has applied for 'fast-track' NATO membership.

If they get that and there is a shot fired by Russia.................

[Seenenough]

Ya'alls wanted Trump ,who was for low energy costs and low inflation ,gone and this is what you got instead.

Biden: “There will be no longer a North Stream II. We will bring an end to it.”

Reuters: “But how will you do that exactly, since the control of this project is within Germany’s control?”

Biden: “I promise you, we’ll be able to do it.”

The result the "silent society behind the curtain benefactors" are raking it in because of the high energy prices cause by the Green Energy blindfold that has been forced onto all of us all.

[boing]

Oh what a mess.

Putin has annexed areas of the Ukraine to the hysteria of the press. The only people that don't care are the Ukrainian forces who still seem to be doing quite well thank you. Russia is talking about recruiting residents of the annexed areas to fight other Ukrainians, we will see how effective that ploy is in the long term.

So Russia is threatening nuclear weapons. If they mean against Ukrainian forces then this would be on the territory he has just annexed which he threatened to protect -- dah dah --- by the use of nuclear weapons. If he means against strategic areas he is now attacking civilian populations which will not go down well with anybody including the Russian and Chinese areas that will receive the nuclear fallout. Under winter high pressure conditions the fallout could also move south to Turkey, Iran and India.

I think Russians are sometimes a surly bunch, I did not see many smiles in the audience during Putin's recent speech but I think I saw a lot of doubt.

.

[Seenenough]

So Russia is threatening nuclear weapons.

.

It is no surprise -War goes on, oil prices get absurdly high ,profits used to buy more weapons so that war continues so oil prices remain high and around and around is goes.

[boing]

In this case the threat of nukes is all the Russians have. They are being beaten by equipment and tactics, Putin's internal support is getting a bit iffy, masses of people are leaving and we don't know how much of this is likely to be an intellectual brain drain but, looking at the profile ie own cars, money enough to leave, objection to draft, if not war, he could be loosing many technical people.

Our best hope now, as it always has been, is a coup. The climate is right because not many in the government will want to follow Putin down this path and risk their own positions. If someone removes him he will be loaded with all of the blame and his replacement will have the excuse for a fresh start and, possibly, even some support from the west.

.

[larsssnowpharter]

I'm beginning to feel slightly sorry for the average Russian grunt who is caught between a rock and a hard place. (Not too sorry , mind you but I do have sympathy for his situation). The cream of the Russian forces received a mauling during the attack on Kylv. In February Ukraine mobilised. They called up experienced soldiers from the war in the East. Their ranks swelled up to an estimated 600,000 to 750,000. They got some good kit. In the East they displayed exceptional skill in being able to conduct an effective withdrawal, one of the most difficult manoeuvres in ground warfare. Add to that, an ability to coordinate ground forces with elan and imagination and, despite huge casualties, a morale that is huge and indefatigable.

In the last few weeks the Russians have shown an inability to conduct an organized withdrawal while maintaining any form of combat effectiveness. Meanwhile, they are being reinforced by ill trained troops that will only consume stores without contributing to the effort.

In short, the Russians are outnumbered by better equipped, better motivated, better skilled better led troops.

It can only go one way.

Meanwhile, Putin doubles down again and again with his threats. Will he use TNWs? Quite possibly.NATO has already promised a response to TNWs (likely massive conventional) as well as a response to any attack on a NATO member under the 'flexible response' doctrine.

We live in dangerous times.

[John Hill]

We live in dangerous times.

Yeabut don't feel so bad about it and just console yourself that at least the rich folks are getting richer.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Back online.
Can't say the week off caused any surprises. I will get back up to speed and start contributing again tomorrow.
Any requests for areas of emphasis, and criticisms, are welcome.
Immediate impressions:
Putin's annexations are less surprising than politicians lying. Precedents have already been set that mean any escalation by Putin, e.g. nuclear, has no basic justification. Indeed, the Russians have stated they are unable to define at least two of the areas they have just annexed, still less provided any evidence that the votes were anything other than totally fake.
I have no idea who blew the Nordstream pipeline. Could have been an insurance job, given it won't be used again!
Rumour is that Lyman is now surrounded. Don't know how many Russians are left in the pocket.
Still waiting for the next Ukrainian attack. I would guess in must come within three weeks to have any chance of completion before the winter.
Russian mobilization continues to fail, and will make no difference on the front lines for months anyway.

[boing]

Denys Davidov is relatively conservative and he shows Ukrainian forces hooking around to both the north and south of Lyman but not having completed their circle. Another organisation shows the encirclement complete. Regardless, the distance between the two Ukrainian groups puts them both within heavy machine gun range of the only highway so it looks as though the Russian options are not good. Video shows groups of people running through the light woodland to the east of Lyman, sans equipment of course. I wonder if it is turkey shooting season.

It may be that the Ukrainians managed another trick. News reports stated that Yampi would be a tough nut and forecast heavy fighting, it looks as though the Ukrainians treated it as a Sunday stroll. Meanwhile, incredibly, Putin is holding an annexation celebration in Moscow.

Estimated Russian soldiers in Lyman between 1500 and 5000.

Correction. There are 3 brigades, or whatever they are called, in Lyman. One brigade from the LPR, one brigade from the DPR and one Russian brigade. This produces a nice paradox, does the Ukrainian army wipe out all of them as a lesson or just the Russians?

.

[TheGreenAnger]

Denys Davidov is relatively conservative and he shows Ukrainian forces hooking around to both the north and south of Lyman but not having completed their circle. Another organisation shows the encirclement complete. Regardless, the distance between the two Ukrainian groups puts them both within heavy machine gun range of the only highway so it looks as though the Russian options are not good. Video shows groups of people running through the light woodland to the east of Lyman, sans equipment of course. I wonder if it is turkey ***** season.

It may be that the Ukrainians managed another trick. News reports stated that Yampi would be a tough nut and forecast heavy fighting, it looks as though the Ukrainians treated it as a Sunday stroll. Meanwhile, incredibly, Putin is holding an annexation celebration in Moscow.

Estimated Russian soldiers in Lyman between 1500 and 5000.

Correction. There are 3 brigades, or whatever they are called, in Lyman. One brigade from the LPR, one brigade from the DPR and one Russian brigade. This produces a nice paradox, does the Ukrainian army wipe out all of them as a lesson or just the Russians?

.

You are right but they are so wrong that any lunacy might pertain!

We must prepare to hyper kill and destroy the Russians! edited

I expect om15 (now that he is back) to rush in and deny my hate speech!

Admin2 has (hopefully) removed that need. Be warned, TGA.

It is going to happen!

The cool calm calculus of mathematics...

[prospector]

https://www.rt.com/russia/563831-ukrain ... aign=Email

Zelensky and his cabinet sign up for NATO

[Boac]

I have only watched the first 10 minutes of the NATO response but sadly it appears to be a masterclass in not answering the question. UN next?

Quite depressing.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukrainian troops entering Lyman from the NW, location 49.01209523926155, 37.77210562123348
Status/location of Russian troops unknown, but they ain't defending this bit any more.

[Seenenough]

Fox3-Thanks for your updates.They are very much more informative than the web.

I would appreciate hearing your views on the mysterious Baltic pipeline explosions.

[Seenenough]

Quite depressing.

Well he has to waffle on because he is just a puppet of what is decided at the Pentagon.

Von der Leyen and her delusion still somehow thinks the EU (Germany) is in the driving seat.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Nord Stream
As best I can tell, there have been 4 ruptures, which occurred 17 hours apart on 26 September. One of the twin NS2 pipes blew first, SE of Bornholm, then 3 together NE of Bornholm, near where the NS1 and NS2 pipes start running parallel.
It is reported that both the twin pipes of NS1 were ruptured in the second incident, and one of the NS2 pipes. It is not clear whether both pipes of NS2 are blown, or just one in two places.
The pipes were full of gas but not running.
Reported depth is 54m (177 ft)
The incidents were recorded on seismographs, and each equate to an explosive force in the range of 1-10 tons of TNT.

Other relevant factors.
The Baltic Pipe supplying Poland from the Norwegian gas fields in the North Sea opened next day
The SwePol electrical supply line runs between Sweden and Poland across the NS pipes between ruptures caused by the second incident. I believe power is still running, but the wires need checking for damage.
Russian Naval Support ships and submarines, and Swedish Navy ships, were observed in the area the week before. However, it could have been done unobserved by a submarine.
All the ruptures are in International waters, which avoids political complications.
I can say from my Cold War intelligence background that lots of secret squirrel stuff has been going on around Bornholm, by all players, for over 50 years. I can't tell you what.

Qui Bono?
Just about everybody.

The size, location and number of the explosions would appear to rule out accidental damage, and hostile action by non-state actors.
It would only be in the Russian interest to damage the SwePol electrical feed also. However, minor damage could be repaired quite easily, so could be part of a false flag operation.

I'd be interested to know if the pipes were insured, if so who by, and whether they were covered for sabotage.

I could not speculate who did it on the current evidence. The smart money would be either the Americans or the Russians.
Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Norway, Poland, and the UK also have the capability to have done it. Economically and/or politically, only the last two would have possible reasons for doing so.

[Boac]

From the BBC on Twatter, 14:07(Z):

"Russian troops withdraw from strategic town of Lyman where Ukraine's forces threatened to encircle them, Russia's defence ministry says https://bbc.in/3E5N1aD"

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Stills from drone footage yesterday, showing Russian troops leaving Lyman in convoy via Zarichne
Appears to be no attempts by the Ukes to stop them, though doubtless they have the capability to do so.

Geolocation of images by me (n.b. North is Down on these images)
Top: mint green roofed house at centre of image; 49.02092419657853, 37.94644994922119
Middle: continuation of top picture, to its left. Note last 2 houses on right of top image matches first 2 houses on left of middle image.
Bottom: bridge centre; 49.02153553634312, 37.95260355594421

Headed east, presumably to Kreminna.

[Boac]

Perhaps they just haven't got the capacity to handle 5000 prisoners right here and now and the alternatives would be unthinkable?