Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Undried Plum]

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Ukes have hit an ammo dump or ammo train in Andriivka, north of Mariupol

I have geolocated the video to here
47.46225413431379, 37.64852768584607

Looks like either a train in the sidings, or the industrial area SW of the station is being used as storage.



This is on the line to Mariupol, and therefore likely cuts the rail link.

p.s. Many thanks for the OWALW link, UP!

[boing]

Traffic on the bridge.
Now I would guess that there are more than a few cars hoping to leave Crimea so my guess is that there is a long queue at the Crimea end.
If I was a crafty Russian I would set up a video where cars travel along the bridge one way then turn around at the closed section and return in the other lane. Traffic normal see!

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[Woody]

I wonder if Putin is watching the evening film on Channel 5, it’s A Bridge Too Far

[boing]

The initial fuel tank fires were to the Russian end of the fuel tanker line. Assuming they are also full of fuel there are more fuel tanks to burn yet sitting over about 4 more spans of the rail bridge so if the Russians cannot control the fires a much greater length of the rail bridge will be damaged. The wind seems to be moderate from the north-east but that's just a guess based on the videos.

Subjecting steel beams to this amount of heat followed by slow cooling will reduce the design strength of the structure considerably so this is not going to be a quick and simple repair.

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[boing]

Here is an interesting viewpoint.

Note something burning on the surface to the right of the main fire. What could that be? On an enlarged photo it seems to be on the surface and it is emitting the same black smoke as the main fire.

The train consists of several tanker trucks near the original fire then ten or so hopper trucks to the right followed by more fuel tanks. The fire may not get past the hopper trucks, depending on what they are carrying, which is a shame.

As a matter of interest, based on the original blast photos, the explosion seemed to start below the roadway.

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Fire burned out, most tanker wagons towed away, remaining few cooled with heli-dropped water, tests on repaired track being done now

[Woody]

[boing]

Track is easy to repair. What they have to worry about is the strength of the support structure and will it support a loaded train. The markings on the carriages have been blanked out.

That looks like a real section of the railway line but remember the line is 12 miles long and we are only being shown 100 yards. That section of rail shows no heat or flame/smoke evidence whatsoever. I can bet you a tank full of diesel never burned out at that point. Look at the photo in #2306 above and imagine how that could be anywhere near the same point on the line.
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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I agree.
Looks like they are running their smallest loco and empty trucks
Great for the cameras.
Wonder if/when they will dare increase the load?
Time will tell.

And if it was a truck bomb, how did it get past inspection?



Top security = 200 Rubles

High security = 100 Rubles, etc

Meanwhile, there seems to have been an increased tempo of attacks on Russian rail infrastructure in occupied Ukraine.
Kick a man when he's down, etc.

No definite news from the front lines today (again), so I shall sign off for the evening. But......

Al Bebak.jpeg (30.24 KiB) Viewed 487 times

[boing]

Recent photos in broad daylight show the bridge still burning at the original location so the photo claiming repairs is a pure fantasy for local consumption. It will take the Russians days to clear the damage site even if they just shove the damaged components into the water.

Big bridges are not built from Meccano (Erector Set for americans), it is likely that some structures need to be produced in a factory to precise engineering drawings. The only simple part is the actual track.

I think the clues about how this was done are right there but I'm not saying anything in case I'm right.

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

This just in.
I see no smoke-blackening or explosive damage under the bridge deck.
So, a truck bomb it is then...?

[Boac]

If so, how much did the driver hate Pooh-tin??

[boing]

Fox,

I've seen figures that suggest a well-placed 1,000 pounder would be needed to do any significant damage on the bridge. Of course, with a thin target over water it could be tricky to place it correctly and who knows the definition of "significant" damage. A truck would be a good way of delivering if there were no security checks - pity about the driver. We can't tell which direction our imaginary truck would have been going, might be bit awkward explaining to a security guard why you were taking a whole load of explosives into Russia. On the other hand it might be quite reasonable to be taking it out. Better to avoid those explanations.

Still, sometimes you have to do what you have to do. As they say "Time and tide waits for no man".

V11V11 Ukraine

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[boing]

If you watch the classic video from the CCTV system in slow motion you will see that there are two trucks and two cars proceeding away from the camera in the right-hand traffic lanes. At the point of the explosion, after the white flash clears, the car and truck nearest the camera are still in view. Later in the video as the smoke swirls away you can again see the first truck and motor car. These were the only trucks in the right hand lanes before the ramp of the bridge and both of them were intact after the explosion. At the same time we see what appears to be a large amount of debris rising from the right hand side and below the road level, I suspect this is water. You will also note bright areas below the level of the roadway which is where I think the explosion took place.

The explosives could have got to that location in many ways, one report claims to have video of a rocket impacting the area.

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[Undried Plum]

p.s. Many thanks for the OWALW link, UP!

"Sir Douglas Haig. That name's familiar. Trade? "

"I'm afraid so, dear".



Classic!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Woody: Here's your answer!



Boing:
A thousand pounder is indeed your starting point for taking out bridges. And in fact most things, which is why many air forces have standardised on it.
Hitting long, thin things (like bridges and runways) usually ends up with 30 degree approach off the long axis and dropping a string of weapons.
It can be quite straightforward when not being shot at, and impossible when being shot at. Have a read about the Thanh Hoa Bridge during the Vietnam War.
Some form of guidance head on the bomb is the way to go.

front line situation.
Still no clear, verified indications of what's been going on. As I said 3 days ago, this may continue for another couple of days due to the likely multi-pronged attacks of the Ukrainian forces, and the desire not to give away which attacks are the main ones and which feints.
I have a strong suspicion that the Uke control of what info does get out is now good enough that it may be part of their maskirovka.
Only a general collapse of a Russian defensive line, or the isolation of a particular large settlement, is going to mean we will get accurate news. Patience, Grasshopper.
The best indication that things are going well is the continued complete silence of the Russian media and proxies on how things are going. If the Ukes had suffered a major setback, we'd know about it!

RT has published an article today about allegedly large numbers of mercenaries in Zaporozhia. This is an area where many, myself included, think a Ukrainian attack may happen.
https://www.rt.com/russia/564320-mercen ... ne-terror/

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Kerch bridge status
Difficult to be sure what's going on.
This video matches today's weather forecast, different from yesterday.

The burned out fuel tankers are still being removed.
The rail track is double over the bridge. I do not know the status of the second track. It's possible it's in use.
The Russians claim it is, for passenger trains.

I have seen video of very long queues of cars to leave Crimea this morning. The road bridge is usable for one lane out of four, cars only.
Trucks are using the old ferry across the straits, which was the primary means of crossing before the bridge was built.
There is a train ferry also, covering a distance of under 3 miles. I do not know its status.

[larsssnowpharter]

On the damage caused to the Kerch Bridge.

I am surprised that UUVs (Unmanned Underwater Vehicles) have not been mentioned as a possibility.

The Remus for UUVs family manufactures by hii , has been in RN service for many years as well as being sold around the World in various forms in the civilian market. The smaller versions are two man portable, the larger versions can carry upwards of 1000 kg and have an autonomy of between 10 for the small ones and 50 hours for larger ones. They are often used in mine clearance and can be equipped with side scan sonar. Possibly some already in the Uke inventory for this very role.

It would seem fairly straightforward for the drone savvy Ukes to replace a part of the modular structure with a suitably adapted warhead, drive it under the bridge ( with the amount of traffic, a small vehicle, underwater travelling at less than 5 knots would stand a good chance of getting through) and equipped with sonar for accurate positioning is a more likely hero than a surface vessel or missile or even a Russian truck!. It could also have held position waiting for the train to pass before being detonated remotely.

Or perhaps I am being wildly fantastical?

[Undried Plum]

I think I saw somewhere that there's a mod to the JDAM which fits an electro-optical gizmo to the nose to steer the freefall bomb into pre-surveyed and even moving targets.

An ideal weapon to take out a bridge, I'da thunk.

I suspect that the Ukes may be getting some pretty serious 'assistance' in delivering such weaponry. Those tankers which you can see on FR24 pretty much 24*7 are feeding something or other.