Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[OFSO]

So NATO, supposedly having an Exit Plan, by implication started the war, did it? Amazing.

[boing]

The Russians started the war by amassing troops on the Ukrainian border and then moving towards Kiev. Simple, no other explanation required. NATO did not force Russia to enter Ukraine, everyone would have rather Russia did not enter Ukraine because the effect was predictable. If the Russians had simply said "Whoops our mistake" after the Kiev fiasco we would not be where we are now, but no, they doubled down to save face and have been doing the same thing ever since leading to a deeper and deeper quagmire.

No matter what anyone claims about Ukraine's hopes to join NATO we know that Ukraine was never a threat to Russia except to its expansionism, NATO was never an offensive threat to Russia. The whole "we are under threat" scenario was a creation of the fevered Russian mentality which gave Putin the green light to proceed with his imperial fantasies.

.

[PHXPhlyer]

^ +1

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

It is always worth remembering that it is difficult for Russians to avoid paranoia, as we might call it. Their experience is that every other country does invade them, given time and opportunity, and this has been going on for hundreds of years.
The Poles have a similar experience. Belgium likewise, but it is too small to resist, so they've just got very good at running cafes and restaurants, and will serve whoever happens to be passing through in any particular week.
So, to all of them, it's not paranoia but realism. Britain last chucked in its lot about a hundred years ago, during the Russian Civil War, which gets conveniently forgotten in most British histories, but not Russian ones.

This is not to excuse or even explain putin's approach. He's just a megalomaniac gangster. But he is astute enough to appeal to the realism of the average Russian mentality.

[Undried Plum]

The Western war against Russia is much much older than Putin.

More potent, too.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

More evidence suggesting that the Belgorod airport attack was on Russian military aircraft. 7xMi-8/17s

Hip Hip hooray!

Possibly even Hip Hip Hip Hip Hip Hip Hip hooray!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

What is reportable today.
Ukraine General Staff says Russia is evacuating all "state institutions" out of Kherson to Crimea. Run away! (bravely)
Explosion in Berdyansk just now (port on the Zaporozhian front).
Strikes of some sort in Valuyski district, Russia. You may remember me mentioning this is where the rail line to Starobilsk goes through, the only remaining northern rail link with Luhansk region.
I would guess that the rail facilities have been hit, maybe also oil and ammo.

This week's Sesemovitch Street was brought to you by the words Terrorism and Kerch

I think I mentioned that putin has a lot more options for raising troops and committing them to Ukraine, under Russian Law, if it's to defeat "Terrorism".
This would include the normal conscripts.

[boing]

It was Russia that was trying to find a path into India to remove British influence not the other way around.
It was Russia that expanded into the 'stans for no obvious reason.
It was Russia that invaded Kazakhstan.
It was Russia that invaded Georgia.
It was Russia that invaded Azerbaijan.
It was Russia that invaded Armenia.
It was Russia that entered Afghanistan.
It was Russia that invaded the Baltic States.
It was Russia that signed a non-aggression pact with Hitler.
It was Russia that annexed Crimea.
It was Russia that violently assembled the communist block post WW2.
It was Russia that carried out the Katyn massacre.
It was Russia that invaded Finland.
It was Russia that instigated the Russo-Japanese War.
It was Russia that crushed the East German revolt.
It was Russia that invaded Chechnya.

Not only does Russia own a series of past wars they are presently involved in Syria and Africa.

They are such nice people, I am sure the Russian speakers in Ukraine appreciate the efforts the Russians made and don't mind a little bit of destruction and conscription to be saved. You can try to justify Russian actions through historical references but for every slight you see from the "west" there are many more you see committed on other peoples by Russia it is simply that they are less remembered because they did not make the western press at the time, so forget the smokescreens.

.

[llondel]

To be fair, they're not the only ones doing such things, it's just they're the current high-profile actor and so are attracting all the hostile comments.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I refer the Honourable gentlemen to the answer I gave some moments before

He's running out of options.

Full mobilization will likely trigger mass civil disobedience.

I think that kinda leaves only:

Starting another war somewhere else (for which I don't think he has the forces)
Mass sabotage of Ukraine's supporters (e.g. cyber warfare, triggering market crashes, etc)
Use of WMD
Lose.

Let's hope he opts for the latter.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I have no idea about the veracity of this, but it certainly sounds like the sort of thing that might cause a mass shooting



n.b. Lt Col Lapin IS the son of Col Gen Lapin about whom this was recently said

Following the Second Battle of Lyman, which saw a Ukrainian victory, Lapin was heavily criticized by the head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov.
Kadyrov blamed Lapin for the Russian retreat, saying he would demote Lapin to the rank of private, strip him of his medals,
and send him to the front line barefoot with a light machine gun to "wipe away his shame with blood".

So, no source of animosity between the Lapins and Islam there, then

[Undried Plum]

Isn't Lapin the ffrench word for rabbit?

They should know.

[boing]

Son, I'm finding you a nice safe slot in Training Command.

.

[boing]

Apparently found dead in his garden. Possibility that he accidentally hung himself while tying up plants.

.

[larsssnowpharter]

For any of you interested in AD side of the conflict, and who can withstand a one hour plus slideshow analysis, this link may be of interest:



The author also has other videos which are worth watching.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The feeds from people with contacts at the front, and those with access to satellite images, have dried up completely.
Everyone is respecting the request by the Ukrainian command for OPSEC.
There's nothing useful on the NASA Fire Satellite feed.
There appears to be around 25 Iranian suicide drones being launched by Russia per day against infrastructure targets, but they don't seem to be accurate enough to affect infrastructure much.
More Russian troops being sent to Belarus. More Belarussian equipment, tanks and SPGs especially, being sent to Russia.
My guess is that the Russian troops are there in case they are needed to prop up Lukashenko's regime, not to launch an attack on Ukraine.

More fun with the mobiks. Looks like, after the recent red-on-red, all the officers are now disappearing when the mobiks are handed live weapons.

Can't say I blame them, but it means the idea of using the mobiks at the front line is now a non-starter.
putin has called a special council meeting today, according to RT, then the announcement got pulled half an hour later - don't know what's going on there, but something important may be announced today by putin.

So, we sit on our hands, and we wait.....

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Retd Gen Ben Hodges was interviewed by the Frankfurter Zeitung over the weekend. He's saying basically the same as I have.
Ukraine is winning because of the lack of willpower and logistics on the Russian side
Acts of sabotage by Russia will increase
Crimea will be reoccupied by Ukraine by next summer.

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-ukraine-up ... a-63454800

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

International politics: How it works
Oct-12 Pakistan abstains in UN vote condemning Russian annexation of parts of Ukraine
Oct-17 RT announces Pakistan negotiating new grain deal with Russia

Day 11 of no mention in Russian media and proxies about the situation on the front lines.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Apparently, two Russian mobiks captured (or surrendered, more like) after only two days in Ukraine.



Unlike all previous scenes like this, note that the Russians have not been blindfolded or restrained.
One would presume this is because they do not present the slightest threat.
All more for the PoW swap fund..to be used for......

108 Ukrainian females released in a prisoner swap today

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Chinese government has just ordered the cessation of LNG supplies to Europe.
As many will know, these were resales of Russian gas, and blatant sanctions dodging which western governments were desperate to avoid talking about.
The Chinese made a pretty penny, as due to their lockdowns their own usage was down.
Now they need to replenish their own stocks for winter.
The effect may well be minimal. European stocks are at 92% of capacity, and US/Norwegian LNG should be sufficient for the rest of this winter.