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Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3901 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Thu Mar 23, 2023 8:56 pm

Here is Prigozhin (Boss of Wagner) with his views on the upcoming Uke Spring Offensive



Short version
1. They'll attack Belgorod.
2. They'll attack from Kupyiansk to Valuyky (in Russia again).
3. They'll strike around Bakhmut to relieve it.
4. They'll attack south from Zaporizhzhia to take Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Mariupol.
Goodness only knows where he thinks the Ukes will get the forces for 7 assault directions.

Very short version: The man appears to be a strategic idiot.


Most commentators seem to think this is all just BS to try to get more funds out of putin, which I think is probably the truth.
The plan outlined would require the Russian MoD to move considerable forces to the northern Russia-Ukraine border, leaving Wagner as top dog around Bakhmut, then provide further funds for Wagner to defend Bakhmut against his proposed Uke attack. It's just Sales BS, not strategy at all.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3902 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Fri Mar 24, 2023 10:00 pm



Music to bomb Russian AFVs by....


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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3903 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Fri Mar 24, 2023 10:15 pm

Starts getting better in a week, but until then....



For those of you with no experience of these conditions, which we have here also, a single vehicle at the wrong time can completely trash an unmade road. It takes quite a while with a grader later to fix it. If it isn't graded promptly, the ruts set hard as the summer comes rapidly, and the road is useless without major work by bulldozers.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3904 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Fri Mar 24, 2023 10:28 pm


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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3905 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sat Mar 25, 2023 11:26 am



When the counteroffensive comes, the Ukes need to target the blocking units, then the rest will run or surrender.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3906 Post by Boac » Sat Mar 25, 2023 4:30 pm

I find myself wondering if Pooh Tin has worked out, following the formation of the 'Nordic Air Command', that things are not exactly going his way?

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3907 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sat Mar 25, 2023 4:56 pm

Well, neither you nor I have any idea what goes on in the heads of losers, do we? ;)))

Reports in the last 24 hours of at least two strikes on Russian fuel truck depots, both in the Kupyansk area.
e.g.

This area is not well served by rail.
The trucks appear to be using the biggest farmyard in each area. This is because they will have a big diesel tank for the farm equipment, plus heavy vehicle maintenance gear.
I would guess they are doing trunk runs of bigger tankers from the Russian border to the north, or from the railhead at Starobilsk.
It's notable that they hit the smaller fuel trucks that do the tactical distribution to the AFVs at the front line.
The Russians have very limited numbers of such smaller trucks.

There have been several reports of strikes on EW and recon units in the previous couple of days, all the way along the FEBA.

Could be just these are randomly being reported now, but I can't recall any strikes reported on these kinds of assets for months.

These are the targets I would expect to be hit in the 2-3 weeks before a counteroffensive, as they can't be replaced in that length of time.
We should expect the targeting to shift to stuff like rail depots and ammo dumps about a week before, then all the command posts and units that will be attacked just a few hours before the counterattack goes in.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3908 Post by PHXPhlyer » Sat Mar 25, 2023 5:02 pm

'Nordic Air Command'
Hadn't seen this reported in MSM here.

Nordic Air Defense Pact Combines Forces Of Hundreds Of Fighter Aircraft
Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden are working to combine air defense forces in the face of the Russian threat.


https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/n ... r-aircraft

To better cope with threats emanating from Russia, the countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden have created a unified Nordic air defense alliance, pooling the resources of their air forces. They have upwards of 300 fighter jets between them as well as training, transport and surveillance fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters.

Those four nations on Friday announced they signed the first Nordic Air Commanders' Intent last week during a meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.


“The declaration of intent strengthens Nordic cooperation and paves the way for further strengthening of the Nordic air forces,” the four nations said Friday in a joint statement. “The ultimate goal is to be able to operate seamlessly together as one force by developing a Nordic concept for joint air operations based on already-known NATO methodology.”

To achieve that goal, this intent directs the development of a “Nordic Warfighting Concept for Joint Air Operations,” pursuing four lines of effort:

integrated command and control, operational planning and execution
flexible and resilient deployment of our air forces
joint airspace surveillance
joint education, training and exercises.
The publicly released plan does not provide specific timelines for achieving any of the goals. However, a separate jointly released document gives an overview.

“In the medium term, efforts shall revolve around preparing for, conducting, and assessing Nordic Response 24 from an air perspective, putting emphasis on the Nordic digital and semi-distributed [Air Operations Center] AOC development steps,” according to that document. “On the horizon, long-term permanent solutions to fulfill this intent’s aim shall be determined and established.”

While none of the documents mention Russia, the move to integrate the air forces was triggered by Moscow’s full-on invasion of Ukraine, the commander of the Danish Air Force, Major General Jan Dam, told Reuters.

"Our combined fleet can be compared to a large European country," Dam said.

Norway has at least 52 F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters, according to Janes. The Norwegian Air Force says it is phased out its F-16 fleet.

Finland has 62 F/A-18C/D multirole fighter jets and 64 F-35s on order, according to Reuters.

Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen on Thursday expressed his opposition to a request by Ukraine for a portion of his country’s Hornet fleet.

“My view as Finland's defense minister is that we need these Hornets to secure our own country,” Kaikkonen told a news conference in Helsinki, as reported by Reuters. “I view negatively the idea that they would be donated during the next few years. And if we look even further, my understanding is that they begin to be worn out and will have little use value left, he added.”

Denmark has 58 F-16s and 27 F-35s on order, according to Reuters.

Sweden has around 70 JAS-39C/D Gripen jets and will be converting over to the enhanced Gipen-E in the coming years.

How soon this gets off the ground and exactly how it will works remains to be seen. And while all four nations have agreed to work within NATO frameworks, Finland and Sweden have yet to gain membership.

But clearly this is all of interest to the U.S. and NATO as well.

U.S. Air Force Gen. James Hecker, head of U.S. Air Forces in Europe (USAFE), as well as NATO's Allied Air Command and U.S. Air Forces Africa (AFAFRICA), attending the document signing at Ramstein last week.

Overall, this landmark agreement could be a boon for all involved when it comes to deterring, and if need be, fighting off Russian aggression. Each air arm brings something to the table, while they also have much in common beyond just geographical proximity. By combining forces, air defense taskings, as well as aerial surveillance in general, can become more efficient and more potent, while war plans can be far more flexible and unpredictable.

There have been glimmers of a similar air defense agreement between regional Arab countries and Israel. But the prospects of such an agreement being put into practice may have declined as of late due to Saudi Arabia's detente with Iran via China.

Regardless, the idea is the same. In an age of multi-layered aerial threats, from typical fixed-wing aircraft — such as fighters and bombers — all the way down to low-flying cruise missiles and swarms of drones and up to hypersonic weapons, combining forces for air defense, even to some degree, makes far more sense than going it alone. This is true both strategically and economically. And this is especially true when a common foe is involved.

In this case, Russia.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3909 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sat Mar 25, 2023 5:12 pm

Not much point whilst Sweden, right in the middle, remained neutral.
Now Sweden has decided to join NATO, it makes perfect sense.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3910 Post by Boac » Sun Mar 26, 2023 2:43 pm

Reports today that the Russian cannon fodder in Ukraine is being offered a payment of around £530 for each Km they advance. (You can see that getting to their pockets......!)

What is not clear is whether they have pay back the same for each Km retreat.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3911 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Mar 26, 2023 4:32 pm

From all the complaint videos I've seen, this will make no difference to recruitment.
It is not the amount per km that's the problem. As you point out, it's that they'll get scammed out of it by their commanders or the admin system.
And there's no fixing that, since Russia in its entirety is a corrupt gangster economy.

The good news is that only total idiots will be filling the ranks of the Russian army from now on, and they will be easier to beat.

I think we have to look back in history to see what happens with armies made up of some reasonably competent mercenaries and large numbers of coerced peasants.
They will collapse as soon as they start losing significantly.

The aim of the Ukrainian counterattack(s) has to be to precipitate that collapse somewhere on the front. For that reason, I expect to see one or two at most attacks, with maximum shock-and-awe.
I think they have to do a deep drive, with its attendant risks of weakly protected flanks, to get the REMFs and mercenaries running. Cut the main supply lines (railroads), then the peasants (who will not be doing any attacks since they won't have any direction) can be offered surrender terms.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3912 Post by Pinky the pilot » Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:25 pm

then the peasants (who will not be doing any attacks since they won't have any direction) can be offered surrender terms.
Terms such as '..surrender or die' one would expect. :-?
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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3913 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Mar 26, 2023 9:58 pm

They are simple guys. Give them simple choices.

Seen a couple of recent videos where individual Russian soldiers are about to be grenaded by a drone, after they or their mates already have been once, and are attempting to surrender to the drone. This kind of thing happened back in the Gulf War. The videos didn't run on any longer, so I was unable to see the consequences.

Two more vids of bits of Russian EW hit in the last 24 hours I have not seen anything like this number of vids attacking EW previously.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3914 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Mar 27, 2023 3:36 pm

Ukrainian troops have completed training on Challenger 2.
No statement on deployment of the tanks themselves, but it should be pretty soon if it hasn't already happened.
All 18 Leopard 2s and 40 Marders from Germany were announced as delivered to Ukraine today.
Batch 1 of Bradley AFV crews have completed training, enough to man a battalion (112 units). Batch 2 have commenced training.
Bradleys should be delivered shortly, if they haven't been already, based on observed transport within USA of units.
All Canadian Leopard 2s and Bergepanzers have been delivered.
Spanish-trained Leopard 2 crews are back in Ukraine.
All other status unknown to me, contributions welcome.

The Ukrainians will want to practice integrating their new crews and field-prepping the AFVs, but I see no immediate reason why the Ukrainians shouldn't be ready to go with a counteroffensive in 3 weeks, which is likely the earliest rasputitsa will be over.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3915 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:41 pm

Latest from Ukrainian Defence Ministry
ukraine armour.jpg
ukraine armour.jpg (201.34 KiB) Viewed 297 times
Cougar, Stryker, Challenger 2, Marder and Senator all pictured in Ukraine.
Senator is Canadian - guess they couldn't find the right flag fast enough.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/27/7395300/

Scholz has just announced that the first of the 100 Leopard 1s promised by Denmark, Germany, and The Netherlands will be delivered soon. Training status of Ukrainian crews unknown, but no AFVs have yet been delivered without the crews having been trained first.

Meanwhile, Russia loses 5 new vehicles, at least temporarily, through simple indiscipline.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/27/7395313/

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3916 Post by PHXPhlyer » Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:53 pm

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote:
Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:41 pm
Meanwhile, Russia loses 5 new vehicles, at least temporarily, through simple indiscipline.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/27/7395313/
I'm sure that they had full coverage insurance on them. =))

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3917 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Mar 27, 2023 8:07 pm

I'd be interested in a survey of views:
1. When will the Ukrainian counterattack come?
2. Will there be a feint attack, either before or simultaneously?
3. Where will it come?
4. What will the result be?

My own for starters
1. End of Rasputitsa, say 21st April.
2. Yes, near simultaneous
3. Main, one or both of Melitopol and north of Svatove. Feint, towards Mariupol, and/or either of the first two.
4. Initial large gains of 50km+ deep, 20 km wide within 4 days. 30% chance of local Russian collapse.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3918 Post by Dushan » Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:24 pm

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote:
Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:41 pm
Cougar, Stryker, Challenger 2, Marder and Senator all pictured in Ukraine.
Senator is Canadian - guess they couldn't find the right flag fast enough.
Or maybe Skippy asked then not to display Canadian flag on a “war machine” lest he offends his base.
Because they stand on the wall and say "nothing's gonna hurt you tonight, not on my watch".

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3919 Post by PHXPhlyer » Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:35 pm

Did the French contribute anything?
If so, which flag was/will be used?
Trois-couleurs oe une couleur(Blanche)?

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3920 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:48 pm

French have donated the AMX-10RC tank killers, the first were delivered 12 days ago, probably a company of 14, with twice that number still to come, and are apparently now going to provide AMX-10P IFVs.
They upped the number of Caesar SPGs a while back. Ukes are extremely happy with those.
Le Clerc MBTs are still being discussed, but it's the same situation as the US M1 Abrams - difficult to support a small number.
The French have donated several Crotale SAM systems. It's a good system, I'm familiar with it, and there's been video of it doing well in combat. Again, Ukes happy.
They have trained over a thousand Ukes in the operation of the above.
Mirage 2000 and Rafale have been discussed, but there appears to be a US Double Secret Probation ban on anyone providing western fighters, confirmed by Biden saying there wasn't :))

So, a fair response, I feel. Definitely Tricoleur, rather than Tablecloth, cheese and monkeys.
Or maybe Skippy asked then not to display Canadian flag on a “war machine” lest he offends his base.
Canadian Defence Minister has been tweeting all the details of the Leopard 2 shipments, videos etc, so probably the flag thing.
p.s. Turdeau still has a base ??? =))

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