Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Quite right k3k3
I have just read elsewhere that these tanks are for training only, and that the ones being donated to Ukraine are being prepped elsewhere.

There have been rumours from both sides of an attack on the Ivan Kurs, a Russian Navy armed research ship.
This appears to be the latest. The US Global Hawk has certainly been looking at something for more than a day now.

[Pinky the pilot]

So the Ukrainians will be operating two different Tanks then; The Abrams and the Leopard.

Question for those with the knowledge; How do they compare? ie, is one better than the other?

And how do either compare to the Ivan`s Tanks?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Well, 3 western MBTs, including the 14 Challenger 2s.
Exercise Iron Spear, held in Latvia annually, has a combat firing competition most recently won by the Chally 2, Leopard 2 was second, Abrams 3rd.
However, it's always close.
Chally 2 is heavier with better armour, and slower.
Leopard 2 is lighter, faster, and generally more reliable. Also cheaper, though that's not a factor for the Ukes as they are all pressies.
Abrams is well armoured and heavy, but still quick thanks to huge turbine engine, but obvs drinks fuel like it's going out of fashion. Least reliable.

The key points are that they are all better armoured than the Russian tanks, have great night vision, and can fire on the move for close to 100% hits.
Most Russian tanks still on the battlefield likely have none of the above.

When correctly supported by IFVs like the Bradleys with TOW, then we saw in the Gulf War that they can kill a thousand T-72s with little more than a scratch.

The main problem in Ukraine is that the Ukes are quite inexperienced in their use, and there are quite a few reports that too many Uke commanders still have a Russian tactics mindset.
On the other hand, the Rooskies seem to have very few ATGWs left, their tanks are also used badly, but there are millions of mines all over the place.

So, there's quite a range of possible outcomes:
1) The Ukes make clean, quick breakthroughs of the Russian front line and charge across the moonlit fields, with the Russian armour turned to toast with first-shot kills, and the troopskis surrendering in their thousands, like the Gulf War.
2) The breakthroughs take ages, the Uke tanks break down from inexperienced maintenance/use, get splatted by massed Russian artillery, and the remainder get bogged down in minefields.
or anything in between 1) and 2).

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Oh boy, is putin going to regret shooting down MH17 now!



Of course, the Brits have clearly got several balls rolling by being the first to start training pilots, sending long range weapons (Storm Shadow), supplying tanks, etc,
and I'm sure Salisbury had something to do with that.

Chickens coming home to roost.

[boing]

Whenever the discussion starts about Ukrainian pilot capability I can't help remembering this movie clip.



My first RAF flight instructor was a pole.

.

[OneHungLow]

Whenever the discussion starts about Ukrainian pilot capability I can't help remembering this movie clip.

My first RAF flight instructor was a pole.

Never underestimate the Poles (he says living with an Englishwoman born of a Polish father who survived those turbulent days)...

[Dushan]

OK, latest on the Swedish-equipped brigade. Passing through Fürth train station (Nuremberg, Bavaria), reportedly today, heading east. I've confirmed location and direction.
Looks like they've travelled by train all the way from Sweden.
I believe they enter Ukraine around Medyka (poland), west of Lviv.



So the main assault won't be going in for a week or two yet, assuming this is gen.

I call fake news! If it was truly coming from Sweden it would be in a flat pack with an Allen key attached.

[Dushan]

Oh yeah, pick any apartment, move right in.
Handyman special!
Penthouses now available on the first floor.

bakhmut.jpeg

First Floor Penthouses are now the latest "in" think in Russia due to low probability of being injured when falling out of the window.

[Boac]

I call fake news! If it was truly coming from Sweden it would be in a flat pack with an Allen key attached.

I liked that!

[Ex-Ascot]

I call fake news! If it was truly coming from Sweden it would be in a flat pack with an Allen key attached.

I liked that!

+ 2

[tango15]

So the Ukrainians will be operating two different Tanks then; The Abrams and the Leopard.

Question for those with the knowledge; How do they compare? ie, is one better than the other?

And how do either compare to the Ivan`s Tanks?

Many years ago, when we were trying to convince the Greeks to buy Chally 2, the Greeks held a run-off in northern Greece (where it's bloody cold in the winter!), with all the competitors. The results, broadly, were: Russian and Ukrainian tanks were eliminated from the competition quite early. The report cited unreliability, particularly with the firing systems and the fact that they were uncomfortable (!)
The French offering, the Leclerc, did not fare well. The Greeks felt it was 'light' for a main battle tank and not sufficiently well protected and was soon eliminated. That left the Abrams, Chally 2, and the Leopard. As you would expect, all three of them performed to spec, but the Abrams was eliminated because of its huge fuel usage. The Greeks felt that the problems with refuelling logistics outweighed its other assets. That left the Chally 2 and the Leopard. There was a firing competition, which the Chally 2 won hands down, with the Leopard also getting lost on its way to the firing area. (All tanks were driven by Greeks trained by the manufacturers). On the way back, the Leopard got stuck in soft ground, and we were treated to the sight of the Chally 2 overtaking it and carrying on
The army recommended that the Chally 2 be the one to buy, and this was rubber-stamped by the MoD. Mr Simitis (the Greek PM at the time) told Mr Blair that the order was ours, and the champagne was put on ice. Simitis went on TV the following evening and announced that the Leopard had won the competition. Draw your own conclusions...

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Beware Greeks bearing grifts

I recall being at RAF Leeming when the CFS were assessing the aircraft for the contract to replace the Jet Provost.
They'd flown the competitors and recommended the PC-9.
One chap had just been told to go refly the Tucano and reassess it, pretending the improvements they had proposed were included.
He made his coffee and told us he was still going to recommend the PC-9.
The Government announced the Tucano would be bought.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Covers some of the possible negatives I suggested yesterday for Ukraine.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Dushan

[Woody]

Drone attacks on Kyiv overnight

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-65736730

[barkingmad]

Another point of view;

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... rgues.html

so as the saying goes, be careful for what you wish…

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Big missile attacks by both sides.

Russia appears to be throwing everything it has left. Iskandr missiles are back in use, though only 11 as they have few left, and all were claimed shot down. Also some Kinzhal, as well as a total of 67 Kh-555 cruise missiles and Shahed drones claimed destroyed (number claimed launched not yet available Update: 75).

As always with ballistic missiles, some bigger bits of wreckage still impact at high speed and cause damage.




There's video of what is probably Storm Shadows heading up the seafront near Yurivka - N coast, Sea of Azov, between Berdyansk and Mariupol - to take out something in the centre of the city. Both the latter places are also being hit. Based on information from Russia about recent casualties, the targets would appear to be buildings being used as HQs and troop barracks. Ukrainian official sources claimed 6 HQs destroyed yesterday, much higher than usual. That seems to be a switch from artillery systems, which got a high count for several days until the day before yesterday. We would expect the Russian higher HQs to be in these places, as it's as far as they can get from the front line without getting their feet wet

The Ukrainian Defence Minister has claimed a 100% success rate for Storm Shadow. It has had success rates at or close to this claimed in previous uses by other air forces.
The Russians have claimed to have shot them all down, and again this is their usual claim

It would appear that the counterattack proper is just days away.

Weather is generally warm and dry, but with some intense thunderstorms causing local flooding. This is forecast to continue for the next couple more days, before it dries out again. Difficult to tell without local knowledge whether this will delay the counterattack or not.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Chalk up another success to Storm Shadow



I have confirmed the video location as here: 46.904935383764844, 37.11621920499315



Looks like there is only one five storey building in Yur'ivka; this one

https://www.google.com/maps/@46.9374929 ... ?entry=ttu

Timings from the first video of flash-to-bang times would seem to confirm it was the target.

It appears to be part of a resort complex, and typically what the Russian military (and indeed any military in a similar location) would commandeer.
I would guess this was a major command HQ - too smart to put the mobiks in it.
Use the theatre/gym as command centres, bung the comms aerials on top of what is the tallest building in the area, lots of accom, etc.
Couple of pools, handy for the beach...pity about the thousand pound warheads
And I'll bet the locals were able to let the Uke armed forces know which building and what time the daily briefings were.

I said in the last post that Russia has few Iskandrs left. They have a fair few left, but everyone reckons that almost all of them are earmarked for theatre nuclear use, and so therefore unavailable for the Ukraine war.