Chaos in USA

[G-CPTN]

It seems that Donald is being Trumped.

[GrumpyPilot]

For now California is contributing more to the feds than what it takes in. This will change sooner rather than later.

I think California contributes $1 for every $8 federal tax dollars. A bit over 12%. But California’s population is about 11% of the total US population. Really not something to brag about when you look at these ratios.

Also, more affluent Californians and businesses are leaving the state
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/leaving- ... 00441.html

“Analysis of the approximately 750,000 people who have bid farewell to California over the last three years has revealed that thousands more high-earning, well-educated workers have left the Golden State than have moved in.”

This is a problem — as Joel Kotkin, a fellow at Chapman University, told the Los Angeles Times — because: “People who are leaving are taking their tax dollars with them.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adammillsa ... 6218862327

So we may be faced with a vicious cycle in this state. As the tax base decreases, the state will be forced to raise taxes which will cause more folks to leave. Rinse. Repeat.

I believe there was talk of an exit tax by the State Assembly. Luckily that crazy idea was shelved. For now, at least. Just watch it rear its ugly head as more businesses and wealthy people leave the state and the tax base shrinks even further. Didn’t such progressive countries as East Germany and the USSR levy exit taxes on their citizens? I guess imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

I won’t even begin to start talking about the $250 billion in unfunded state pension liabilities. Nothing to see here..move along is the mantra…

https://www.ocregister.com/2023/10/17/j ... challenge/

“ It should surprise no one that California has the most pension debt – by far – compared to all other states, at nearly $250 billion. No other state even comes close.”

#winning

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I do get that, but a further problem is the distortion of the balance by Federal policy itself.
This would include where Federal facilities (and therefore jobs) are located, and trade deals which advantage some States over others.
The latter is a particular issue where I am in Canada.
There's also the question of the effect on particular States being different if some kind of subsidy 'war' got going.
The Feds could withdraw all support from, say, Wyoming, and I doubt most would notice, whereas New York City would be a hellhole in days.
And of course, we have to consider how any such conflict would affect government objectives, like Net Zero and immigration.
Canada also has the situation where just about every Province is vital in terms of communications, since transport is E-W and boundaries N-S.

Saskatchewan is, just, a net receiver in terms of Federal contributions, but has historically been a contributor.

I think the question has to be seen in terms of the reactions at both Federal and the personal level.
Sask's move has been met by zero reaction from the Feds so far, and the people of Sask seem to be behind their Provincial government on this one.

But the decisions in both countries will probably be made on how any actions or reactions will affect how people vote Federally, as ever.

p.s. and as Grumpypilot points out, Don't Mention Pensions! or Population movement.

Some useful data here

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... nor-states

We should also bear in mind that the voters themselves are not idiots.
Atlantic Canada has mostly Conservative Provincial Governments and yet almost exclusively Liberal Members of the Federal Parliament.
This gets us the most money off the Feds, which we then insist on being least wasted when it gets here.
My local Liberal MP's newsletters are 95% about the Federal money he is bringing into the area, and almost zero on any other policy. He knows what keeps him elected.

..and to complete the circle, the reason Sask has withheld the Carbon Tax is because the Federal Liberals just biased the system to try to keep the seats of the MPs in Atlantic Canada.

[probes]

Trump won't abandon NATO.

That's what they said about putin? That he won't? - And now Trump also expects bloodbath, unless...

We should also bear in mind that the voters themselves are not idiots.

No so sure about that either.
Sorry.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Some voters are not idiots, in the short term, at least.
However, the questions in any democracy are what proportion and where they are located.
And the percentage of people who will ignore long term consequences they don't like in favour of short term consequences they do is definitely over 50%.

[PHXPhlyer]

Spotted on neighbor's car's rear window.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Worth reminding people that the Ancient Greeks usually considered hope a negative, since it tended to lead to inaction in the face of troubles.

The only positive hope is one's own actions, and an optimistic view of their outcomes.

We should remember that false hope was kept locked up in Pandora's Box, so that the only true hope would enable us, through our own actions (not those of others), to take on all the other evils which were released.

[llondel]

May the farce be with you.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I already have him as my PM

[Dushan]

And now Trump also expects bloodbath, unless...

You have to consider his entire speech regarding "bloodbath":
What he said was if he is elected the Chicomm car factories in US will face stiff tariffs to favour American car manufactures, but if he doesn't get elected then there will be a bloodbath in the automotive sector.

But you keep listening to MSM and other lefty lackeys.

[probes]

But you keep listening to MSM and other lefty lackeys.

Ok, guilty as charged... or more, as I didn't even listen to the lefties, I just read the headlines and was kind-of baffled.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Which is why they write the headlines that way.

The first actual facts normally appear in paragraph four.
The most relevant facts, however, don't appear at all.
And there is no longer a single study or survey that is worth the electrons moved to form the pixels.
Government statistics? "It's all total b#llocks". The quote is from a recently retired professor of statistics I spoke to.
I don't normally get that kind of language from senior Canadian ladies.

[probes]

Interesting.
CNN:
"In many ways, Kennedy’s eccentric anti-system populism echoes Trump’s 2016 campaign. Like Trump 2016’s posturing, Kennedy 2024 also taps the under-represented “populist” quadrant of the electorate. Trump, however, has drifted into pure partisan warfare and narcissism, leaving a populist opening.

Because Kennedy’s support coalition is so unusual, and heavy with otherwise unlikely voters, his support numbers vary quite a bit across polls (it’s harder for pollsters to reach and properly weight his likely supporters). This especially makes his campaign a wildcard. He is not so much drawing from Democrats and Republicans as he is drawing from voters who are deeply dissatisfied with their choices.

Typically, third-party candidates fade as the election approaches, and traditional partisan loyalties kick back in. But in an election with so many “double-haters” who can’t stomach another term for either Trump or Biden, a third-party candidate with high name recognition and money has a meaningful shot at double-digit support.

If so, Kennedy might genuinely play spoiler — though for which candidate is not entirely clear yet. Who knows — he could even win a state like Alaska, where nearly a third of voters are genuinely independent (unlike most self-declared independents, who are actually reluctant partisans). But in a close race between the two unpopular frontrunners, Kennedy will almost certainly be a chaos factor."

Opinion: RFK Jr. is poised to be a chaos factor in November

Any other opinions?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I have been following
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Kennedy seems to be the topic of the week.
Every side seems to think Kennedy will hurt Biden more than Trump. Indeed, any Third party candidates in any elections will hurt the Dems more than the Republicans.
There are assorted attempts across the country to stop third party candidates being recognised. They are all being done by lefties.

[llondel]

I have been following
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Kennedy seems to be the topic of the week.
Every side seems to think Kennedy will hurt Biden more than Trump. Indeed, any Third party candidates in any elections will hurt the Dems more than the Republicans.
There are assorted attempts across the country to stop third party candidates being recognised. They are all being done by lefties.

That comes down to a broken election system, which requires an amendment to the Constitution to fix. Change it to a requirement to win the popular vote, and if no one makes 50%, have a run-off between the top two. Perversely that would give third-party candidates more of a chance, and remove the concept of battleground states that get all the attention because suddenly every vote matters, not just a few of them. the existing system might have made sense back then, but is obsolete now.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The basic problem is that the average Joe, not just in America, will vote for the big party candidates rather than pick an independent.
Thus the money men put all their effort into ensuring they have corrupt idiots as big party candidates who will do as they are told.

I am a fan of republican (or here, provincial) government, not one big popular vote. Subsidiarity.
And the problem is solved best by ensuring the Federal government has a lot less power. Then it will really matter less who gets picked.
And that was how it was back when the US Republic was formed.

I have been able to choose my preferred government...none at all.
I live outside any municipality, most of the locals just ignore any regulations they don't like (but do respect the sensibilities of their neighbours), the provincial government in practice never shows up here, and the Federal government is just a rumour.

[Dushan]

Four MPs for 180,000 people is hardly a rumour.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Is if you never see them, and they never reply to correspondence, and your senators really live in Ottawa, and have people plow their yards in winter to pretend they are (as they are legally required to be) actually residents.

[llondel]

Is if you never see them, and they never reply to correspondence, and your senators really live in Ottawa, and have people plow their yards in winter to pretend they are (as they are legally required to be) actually residents.

How do you manage that in winter in Canada? With a pneumatic drill or explosives?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

You are correct that there are some conditions which would require that.
They did used to use explosives to clear the railroad when that was extant.
Mostly, the trick is to get out there as the snow stops, and clear the bulk of it immediately with a normal snowblower.
A snowblower, coupled with a ramming technique on the drifts, does operate like a pneumatic drill.
I have kept my old, rusted truck, and will be getting a big plow fitted. Having one's own plow truck is not uncommon.
In extremis, the guy with the nearby breaker's yard has a huge Caterpillar bulldozer he uses for shifting cars about his yard, and he clears for everyone along the road for a nominal sum or free.
But sometime you can't win. We had a one off big snowfall in November one year, then it rained, then the soaked snow immediately froze and stayed that way for 5 months. My yard had 6 inches of ice on it all winter as a result.

This year, almost no snow...however my dirt basement currently has 5 inches of water in it.
Things like my water heater are on 12" blocks, as this is expected.

End of snow, and thread, drift