Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[PHXPhlyer]

Ukraine uses long-range ATACMS against Russia for the first time
The U.S. provided Ukraine with the powerful ballistic missiles this month but did not reveal it publicly for operational security reasons, a National Security Council spokesperson said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukra ... rcna148309

The U.S. provided Ukraine with powerful long-range ballistic missiles for the first time earlier this month, and its military has already used them twice in the last week against Russian forces, according to three U.S. officials.

The first strike was about 100 miles inside Crimea’s border on the morning of April 17, targeting a Russian military airfield, according to the officials. The Ukrainian military used the U.S.-provided Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, for the second time Tuesday night, targeting Russian forces east of the southeastern Ukrainian town of Berdyansk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, officials said.

The Biden administration has not previously acknowledged sending ATACMS to Ukraine, but a National Security Council spokesperson confirmed that the U.S. has provided them. They were part of the $300 million military aid package unveiled March 12.

The NSC spokesperson said the administration did not reveal at the time that it was sending Ukraine the long-range missiles for operational security reasons. President Joe Biden directed his national security team to send the ATACMS to Ukraine secretly, the spokesperson said.

The powerful missiles have a range up to 300 kilometers (about 187 miles) and allow Ukraine to strike the Russian military throughout Crimea and in occupied parts of eastern Ukraine that had been difficult to reach. The U.S.-provided ATACMS included both warheads with cluster munitions and with unitary blast fragmentation.

The revelation that Ukraine has used the long-range ATACMS came as Biden signed into law a foreign aid package providing billions of dollars in weapons and support to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The measure, which will provide about $61 billion for Ukraine, was hung up for months due to opposition in the Republican-led House.

The Biden administration was already preparing a military aid package for Ukraine worth more than $1 billion, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the planning. It will include a range of equipment that the U.S. has already provided Ukraine, including ammunition, stinger missiles, artillery rounds, infantry fighting vehicles and other military equipment, the officials said.

NBC News was first to report in February that the Biden administration was planning to provide ATACMS to Ukraine.

Late last year, the U.S. began to supply Ukraine with the missiles, but until now they had limited the shipments to older medium-range models amid concerns that taking the longer-range ones from U.S. stockpiles could endanger military readiness. In early February, the U.S. Army presented a plan to buy new ATACMS directly from industry and send ones in storage to Ukraine, and the Biden administration approved.

The White House also concealed the decision to send the medium-range ATACMS in 2023, acknowledging it only after Ukraine used them in combat. Administration officials also cited operational security as the reason for its secrecy.

The Biden administration had resisted sending the long-range missiles over the past two years because officials worried Ukraine would use them to strike inside Crimea or Russia and prompt Russian President Vladimir Putin to escalate the conflict. White House and Pentagon officials have expressed similar concerns about other sophisticated weapons systems but have repeatedly decided to provide them to Ukraine.

But after multiple warnings to Russia not to use long-range weapons inside Ukraine and to stop attacking Ukrainian energy grids went unheeded, the White House decided to give Ukraine the same capabilities.

An NSC spokesperson said Biden directed his team to send the ATACMS after North Korea provided Russia with ballistic missiles that have now been used in Ukraine and after Russia has repeatedly attacked civilian infrastructure inside Ukraine.

The U.S. imposed limitations on the use of the long-range systems, including that they cannot be used to strike inside Russia and must be used within sovereign Ukrainian territory, which, according to the U.S. government, includes Crimea.

Testifying before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense last week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that without funding for more weapons to Ukraine, Russia is gaining the upper hand.

"We’re seeing the Ukrainians be challenged in terms of holding the line — they’re doing a very good job, a credible job — but in order to continue to do that, they’re going to need the right materials, the right munitions, the weapons to be able to do that," Austin said.

An NSC spokesperson said more military aid will provide a boost to Ukraine on the battlefield, but it cannot turn the tide of the war alone. Ukraine is running low on munitions and equipment, while Russia continues to launch waves of drones and missiles, the spokesperson said.

Speaking on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the new aid will give the country a chance at “victory” as it defends itself from Russia.

“I think this support will really strengthen the armed forces, I pray, and we will have a chance at victory if Ukraine really gets the weapons system, which we need so much, which thousands of soldiers need so much,” he said.

PP

[probes]

Not the brightest hours for putin - (defence minister) shoigu's deputy ivanov was commanded to court, which might mean several things, and probably indicates unrest in some circles. Either putin thinks someone's after him or someone actually is, but even if no-one is, the implication might give ideas that putin's power is getting weaker. Not good news for him.

UKR got the ATACMS they've wanted for a long time, and now it appears they already had them - some suggest it's a quid pro quo for not targeting refineries. Indeed, the last ones hit were the storages, not facilities.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Yes, I see that as the trade-off also.
They will keep hitting Russian domestic/military storage, but not refineries.
And with ATACMS now available, more than 100 already according to a US official today, I think the Ukes did the right thing in attacking the refineries when they did.

There are a couple of other points.
It seems there will now be no restrictions on ATACMS use.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112324953610943309

..and that the Russians are expecting this also - see the graphics in the background now including Russian territory.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112327345409492454

[probes]

Oh, Skabeyeva...
(the last link). She never ceases to ... dunno even, what word it should be. This time she's irate - can you imagine, the UKR has the capability to strike ruz territory!! Unheard of!!! It had to be them (=ruz) bombing quietly and gently... only mil targets... for the good of the humankind to free everyone of UKR nazis. [after the !!! it's not a translation, more like a compilation and essence of what she has been saying previously.]

But the graphics is suggestive, as it's said, right.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Thanks for the translation, it was pretty much what the tone and graphics had already told me.
I am curious, since the Ukrainians having been hitting places up to 1,500 km into Russia already, why this should be a big thing.
Is it because ATACMS is more accurate, or because the Russians have been pretending all the Uke UAVs launched previously were shot down?

[probes]

Probably for their 'domestic market' to say: see, it's the Americans, they hate us, and the whole world hates us, and now they gave UKR the missiles to destroy our cities! It's russofobia! It's bad NATO! It's bad collective West!!

Not a peep about the UKR cities they have carpeted, of course. Also, somehow the Belgorod residents didn't hurry to evacuate, being fairly sure UKR won't bomb residential quarters. Same elsewhere, people watching drones and sharing the videos - no-one is rushing to shelters in panic, expecting UKR attacks.
Or about the threats to nuke European capitals and the US.

It's not even outrageous any more, it's just pathetic. To be paid for b*****t like that. In official state TV. She's not the only one, of course.
BTW, it was mentioned somewhere that the young people in ruz are idolising Vladimir Lenin again. Possible reason - he started it [ruz: all the glorious things; outside ruz: all the s**t, sorry for being emotional for the second time] and didn't live long enough to see how sour it turned. And inhuman.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I have noticed on a few videos that Russian citizens do start heading to cover if their side starts firing at the drones.
There has been some evidence that the missiles and shells fired by their own side DO end up in civilian areas, including Russian SAMs sticking out of house walls, plus of course the risk of a drone crashing off target if the Russians do manage a hit.

I can't say my opinion of Russian media is any worse than my opinion of western media. On the plus side, all of my local newspapers have just gone bust, and the local TV and weather is now weekdays only, even with one third of wages coming from the government. Let's hope the Russian media goes bust too!

[probes]

I can't say my opinion of Russian media is any worse than my opinion of western media. On the plus side, all of my local newspapers have just gone bust, and the local TV and weather is now weekdays only, even with one third of wages coming from the government. Let's hope the Russian media goes bust too!

Oh no, you don't mean that!
As mentioned before, my Russian is so-so, but my partner is fairly fluent (not a native speaker, though), so I can ask about the words that one won't find in any dictionary (or maybe they have their version of an 'Urban' already, dunno). The things said in the state TV are just beyond pale and worse. PM, if you want to, I'd be arrested for hate speech if I reported a fraction of it here - and I've even seen only a fraction, so...
Which doesn't mean the tabloids are any better, whipping up fears of nuclear war and cheerfully picking up most of the threats intended to be picked up. Like who ruz is going to attack next and nuke if and unless.
Anything may happen, but why encourage the likes of medvedyev to get drunk and post whatever? And then good people get scared - well, putin may attack whoever, but definitely not now, he's too busy in UKR.
But their media won't go bust. The propaganda-people (like skabeyeva) are payed well and told which specific emphasis is needed at a particular time. So, yes, there must be serious concern about the new boost of equipment, especially ATACMS.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Russians have left their worst troops on the Left Bank of the Dnipro.
Yesterday they decided to send some ordinary troops out to move some anti-tank mines the Ukrainians had left.
That the Ukes might have left grenades under some of the anti-tank mines, with the lever of the grenade held down only by the weight of the mine, clearly did not occur to them.
In fact, the last thing to go through their heads were their a-holes.
18+ dead.

[GrumpyPilot]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 9725e84e64

“ This weekend, Russian drones and scouts surveilling the front line just west of the ruins of Avdiivka, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, observed something strange. Ukrainian trenches just east of the village of Ocheretyne, previously manned by soldiers from the Ukrainian army’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade, were empty.


The village was undefended.

Seizing the opportunity, the Russian army’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade raced several miles along the railroad threading west from Avdiivka and captured most of Ocheretyne—and potentially also Novobakhmutivka, the village south of Ocheretyne.

It’s the fastest penetration into Ukrainian territory by Russian forces in months—and it threatens to collapse Ukraine’s defensive line west of Avdiivka. A line that has held for months, but now has a deep and widening gap in it. “Pandora's box is open,” Ukrainian analysis group Deep State commented.

To get a sense of how frightened Ukrainian commanders are right now, consider the brigade they rushed into the breach north and west of Ocheretyne: the 100th Mechanized Brigade. The brigade is one of the newest and most lightly-equipped brigades in the Ukrainian army—and seemingly unsuited for the kind of front-line triage commanders are asking of it.

The collapse in Ocheretyne reportedly isn’t the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s fault. That brigade—the main operator of Ukraine’s American-made armored vehicles—was following orders to withdraw from Ocheretyne in order to redeploy to the rear for a much-needed period of rest after spending nearly a year in combat.

The 115th Mechanized Brigade was supposed to take the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s place in Ocheretyne, seamlessly filling the same fighting positions with enough troops to maintain the integrity of the defensive line west of Avdiivka.”

[probes]

yep, they blundered there. Around Avdiivka it's bad, too. Real bad.
ruz is trying hardest around Bakhmut as well, no progress there - yet, at least.

Speech by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the Atlantik-Brücke event

And then, we have to be honest. The reality is that, in recent months, NATO Allies have not provided the support we have promised.
For months, the US was not able to agree a package.
And in Europe, the delivery of ammunition is far below the levels we said we would provide.
These delays have consequences.

ruz has lost most of its market for mil equipment in India. Which was remarkable. Used to be. As per Politico.

“How come the Patriots took down the Kinzhal missiles that were touted as invincible? How come Russian ships are becoming such easy targets from a country that doesn’t have a navy? Its spy planes such as A-50s, and fighter jets such as Sukhois have been downed so effectively,” Rao told POLITICO.

Problems for UKR with ruz drones:

Admiral Christopher Grady, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and another defence official said that [Abrams] tanks had now been withdrawn from the front line and the US would work with the Ukrainians to rethink tactics.

P.S As for the poor arrested deputy to shoigu, ivanov - he's said to have been responsible for funds into infrastructure on occupied territories (=lots of money). Probably some 'balancing' of rivalling 'clans' needed, business as usual.

[probes]

More on tanks and cheap drones, NYTimes:
The drone combat in Ukraine that is transforming modern warfare has begun taking a deadly toll on one of the most powerful symbols of American military might — the tank — and threatening to rewrite how it will be used in future conflicts.
Over the last two months, Russian forces have taken out five of the 31 American-made M1 Abrams tanks that the Pentagon sent to Ukraine last fall, a senior U.S. official said. At least another three have been moderately damaged since the tanks were sent to front lines early this year, said Col. Markus Reisner, an Austrian military trainer who closely follows how weapons are being used — and lost — in the war in Ukraine.
That is a sliver of the 796 of Ukraine’s main battle tanks that have been destroyed, captured or abandoned since the war began in February 2022, according to Oryx, a military analysis site that counts losses based on visual evidence. A vast majority of those are Soviet-era, Russian or Ukrainian-made tanks; only about 140 of those taken out in battle were given to Ukraine by NATO states. And Russia has so far lost more than 2,900 tanks, the Oryx data show, although Ukraine claims that the number exceeds 7,000.
German Leopard tanks have also been targeted in Ukraine, with at least 30 having been destroyed, Oryx says. But the Abrams is widely viewed as one of the world’s mightiest. That it is being more easily taken out by exploding drones than some officials and experts had initially assumed shows “yet another way the conflict in Ukraine is reshaping the very nature of modern warfare,” said Can Kasapoglu, a defense analyst at the Hudson Institute in Washington.
This weekend, the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine that will include desperately needed defensive weapons. Here is a look at why it matters for tanks.
Despite their power, tanks are not impenetrable, and they are most vulnerable where their heavy plated armor is the thinnest: on the top, the rear engine block and the space between the hull and the turret. For years they were mainly targeted with land mines, improvised explosive devices, rocket-propelled grenades and anti-tank guided missiles, like “shoot and scoot” shoulder-fired systems. These were widely used early in the Ukraine war because they could strike tanks from above and hit them up to 90 percent of the time.

- Do Tanks Have a Place in 21st-Century Warfare? - an interesting one. War does accelerate invention.

P.S.

[probes]

As for innovation... netted motobikes

and this turtle-tank seems to be a bit broken. Another one is reported to be good and well.

[PHXPhlyer]

US announces $6 billion long-term military aid package for Ukraine

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/26/politics ... index.html

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced on Friday a $6 billion long-term military aid package for Ukraine — the largest to date — which will allow the US to purchase new equipment produced by the American defense industry for the Ukrainian military.

“This is the largest security assistance package that we’ve committed to date. It will include critical interceptors for Ukraine’s patriot and NASAMS air defense systems, more counter drone systems and support equipment, significant amounts of artillery ammunition, and air to ground munitions and maintenance and sustainment support,” Austin said during a press conference on Friday.

The announcement comes just days after the US announced a $1 billion package that would quickly provide equipment to Ukraine to help its fight against Russia from US stocks.

Unlike drawdown packages which pull military equipment directly from US stocks, Friday’s aid announcement falls under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which contracts with industry to procure the equipment.

The USAI is intended to provide Ukraine with a long-term supply of weapons and equipment.

PP

[probes]

The collapse in Ocheretyne reportedly isn’t the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s fault. That brigade—the main operator of Ukraine’s American-made armored vehicles—was following orders to withdraw from Ocheretyne in order to redeploy to the rear for a much-needed period of rest after spending nearly a year in combat.

The 115th Mechanized Brigade was supposed to take the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s place in Ocheretyne, seamlessly filling the same fighting positions with enough troops to maintain the integrity of the defensive line west of Avdiivka.”

President Zelenskiy has said that they'd prefer men to come voluntarily, so UKR set up a system where men can choose what kind of tasks they want to do. Actually there are women, too, of course. Given the horrid reality of ruz war, no wonder people are reluctant now after the initial surge. Especially as there seems to be no end to putin's greed and ambition. But, as UKR does not have firing squads to keep troops moving to the right direction (used to be the chechenyis for ruz, maybe still are), the ruz idea that the troops are 'motivated' somehow by the 'Collective West' (=dragged into russofobic fighting) seems absurd.
Nothing much seems to be known of the motivation of the 115.
Not yet.
But we know that something ruz is really efficient with is telling absurd lies ('strategic information', they say). Was it Hitler or Goering who said a lie has to be outrageously gross for people to believe it? Well, going to the UN Security Council to claim that ruz has suffered terrorist attacks by UKR certainly is, and as we see, there are some who seem to believe it. Mrs Taylor Greene, to name one waving posters in Congress to prove ruz is destroying nazis in UKR, for one.

And something I've been waiting to happen - OPINION: Environment: No Longer a Silent Victim — Ukraine Leads the Charge in Prosecuting Environmental War Crimes

Obviously, crimes that cause severe human suffering are the utmost priority for Ukrainian prosecutors and investigators. When viewed alongside the aggressor’s atrocities that we sadly witness daily, investigating harm to nature may seem untimely. However, historical precedents show impacts that affect people for decades. A century after World War I, the Red Zone in northeastern France remains tainted by munitions and chemicals. Thirty years after the Gulf War, Kuwait's lands still suffer from oil contamination.
The war’s toll on Ukraine’s environment is already colossal. Damages to ecosystems are estimated at over $60 billion, 25 percent of Ukraine’s territory is laden with mines, and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, under Russian occupation, poses ongoing risks. In response to these challenges, eighteen months ago, our team began to address war-related environmental damage and raise international awareness of these issues.
Today, Ukraine is the first country in the world to investigate war crimes against the environment and ensure accountability for them within its national jurisdiction. Ukraine is one of just 15 countries that have the crime of ecocide in their national legislation.

It seems absurd to 'cut down emissions' and rally for environment around Europe, when Russia commits deliberate massive contamination and destruction with loss of lives each day in UKR. Were they not doing that, they might have time and attention for their own troubles:

...the Dobrovolnoye uranium mine, located in the village of Uksyanskoye in Kurgan's Zverinogolovsky district, was submerged by the flooding. It is operated by a subsidiary of state nuclear agency Rosatom.There was no mention in the RBC report that Putin had specifically referred to the uranium mine during the meeting, and state nuclear agency Rosatom has denied that the mine was affected by the flooding.

"Reports of production wells entering the flooding zone are deliberate misinformation," the division of the state nuclear agency which operates the mine told state-run news agency Tass on Tuesday. The mine is estimated to hold approximately 7,077 tonnes of uranium at a grade value ranging from 0.01 percent to 0.05 percent uranium, according to NS Energy Business.
Environmentalists told Agentstvo that they fear the nearby Tobol River could become contaminated with uranium. The river is used to source drinking water for Kurgan residents.
Andrei Ozharovsky, an expert in the Radioactive Waste Safety program of the Russian Social-Ecological Union, told the investigative site that a leak of uranium from the Dobrovolnoye mine would lead to an increase in the concentration of uranium salts in the Tobol River, and this may contaminate drinking water for residents.
He also told German broadcaster Deutsche Welle (DW) in an interview published on Thursday that parts of the uranium mine are "already underwater."
"Part of this uranium reserve which is already underwater, they started extraction in the 1980s, during the Soviet times. A lot of old uranium wells are just left out," said Ozharovsky. "The underground pressure bumps up uranium solutions, and I measured it myself several years ago, that around these wells, there is an increasing level of radiation."
Agentstvo said that environmental activists in Kurgan have for years been urging authorities to ban uranium mining in the area over fears that the radioactive solution would contaminate groundwater and the Tobol River.
On Wednesday, Alexander Kurenkov, head of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, said the worst of the flooding had hit the Kurgan region, and that floodwaters were approaching the nearby Tyumen region.

Putin Seeks Answers as Radioactive Leak Fears Grow, Newsweek

[probes]

New unwelcome developments around Kupyansk and in Donetsk - several villages lost.
UKR has problems with training more troops.
Same for ruz, of course, but they have plenty to be 'sacrificed', according to their mil doctrine.
putin has been 'happy and confident' lately (sources say) due to UKR running out of ammunition and delays in aid.
shoigu, on the other hand, is unhappy - the bloody UKR terror acts on ruz soil... and damned ungrounded ruzzofobic 'western help'...

[probes]

Last night: 34 missiles from ruz, 21 destroyed by UKR air defence. According to Mykola Olechuk, the destroyed ones: 6 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles; 8 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided aviation missiles; 1 Iskander-K cruise missile; 6 Kalibr cruise missiles.
Full patch specified here: Iskanders, Kalibrs, and beyond: Russian strikes on Ukraine and air defense's success.
UKR thermal power plants hit, also gas facilities. And railways, targeting Western aid.

UKR drones hit facilities in Krasnodar region, incl mil air base.


Southern front comparatively uneventful, but the situation around Avdiivka is worsening considerably for UKR. Shortage of ammo, and ruz mil bloggers hope to get advantage of the shortage. Obviously they are. At the cost of more than a thousand soldiers lost - that's the daily count when ruz is attacking.
Another guy from shoigu team arrested for bribes. Interesting. [meaning: why this guy, as bribes are normal in the system]
Regulations for bigger enterprises on selling the foreign currency to ruz banks extended for another year.

Oh, and peskov has announced once again that 'unfortunately' there's no hope for negotiations, as UKR has no wish for that.
ruz is very willing, but of course the pre-condition is that ruz will keep all territories putin has occupied. Well, isn't it generous?

Positive for UKR - ruz isn't attacking on the whole frontline, meaning they aren't able to, and the success so far is tactical, not strategic.

edited: floods in Moscow (these will be dealt with, though)

[probes]

KAMAZ factory - the main supplier of automotive equipment to the Russian army.


Also, $5M Russian 'K-1 Podlyot' System Wiped Out in Strike (video included). That's a big thing.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Ukes have now started on the Russian railways.
Two diesel locomotives destroyed. One in Orenburg (of the floods), and one in Vladikavkaz (Caucasus)
Both a long way from Ukraine and each other.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/28/7453383/

However, Russian railways do have about 20,000 locomotives, so the Ukes will have to up the loco-burning pace quite a lot to have much effect.
There are other ways they could take the system down more quickly and with a lot less strikes, so I am looking for some sign they've wised up.

[probes]

Kupyansk direction: ruz is concentrating troops (tanks etc included), a considerable offensive expected.
Around Bakhmut glide bombing and no remarkable movement.
Massive waves of armoured forces in Avdiivka direction, no remarkable progress so far. The skies are humming - full of drones from both sides.
Britain estimates 450,000 Russian troops killed or wounded, excl Wagner (who had tens of thousands of convicts thrown into the 'grinder'). Vehicle etc numbers in the article by ukdj. They do have about an estimated 470 thousand in UKR now. Which is not enough for putin's ambitions.
An islet in Dnipro delta taken by UKR.
ruz mil bloggers are convinced an attack to the Crimea is being prepared, starting with airfields and the Bridge. The ATACMS, youknow.