Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[probes]

putin landed in Beijing, and the 'background info' is - tactical success for ruz accross the border from Belgorod and UKR highly possible strategic success in the Crimea, especially Belbek (reportedly 1 MIG-31 destroyed, 3 SU-27 and 2 S-400 components damaged, one radar destroyed + tonight a missile storage hit, BUT no clear confirmation yet). Videos indicate no activity of ruz air defence, probably temporary problems, no terminal wipe-out.
Well, the Chinese are anything but dumb.
Their situation is tough, of course - EU and US markets vs ruz... which shouldn't be totally defeated, just so-so to enable China gain ground far, far from Moscow: How Moscow Turned Its Far East into Beijing’s Raw Material Colony

Which is why a larger missile attack by ruz is expected. To get the pic rosier for them. Or bloodier. Btw, putin condemns shooting fico - killing thousands of hundreds himself and being after Zelenskyi et al every day.
Weird, weird world.

No success for ruz on the previous frontlines (which doesn't mean they haven't tried).

[probes]

a good one, beginning with the airfield strike analysis with some more confirmed images, and gives a general overview not hiding the drawbacks either:

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukrainian partisans have given an exact position for the fire at Belbek on the second night, here
https://www.google.com/maps/place/44%C2 ... ?entry=ttu
This is one of the two weapons storage bunkers in the weapons storage area, judging by the security arrangements and location.
It appears to be burning steadily on long range video.
No confirmation from other sources as yet.
It appears the military airfield outside Simferopol was also hit, as was the sub base at Balaklava.
All of these would have been unprotected if the SAM unit hit yesterday at Balbek had not been replaced.
I am not aware of any ATACMS being supplied to Ukraine which are bunker-busters, so I would guess the second Balbek strike on the bunker was by Storm Shadow/SCALP.
The destruction of the S-400 was therefore a necessary precursor.

[probes]

yep. More detailed sat view on the airfireld and missile range specified here:



Also, production facilities of the ruz defense complex Bazalt in Tula attacked. Drones.

[tango15]

I've been in the underground submarine pen at Balaklava. It was turned into a museum following glasnost but it sounds as though the ruz have used it for the storage of materiel if the Ukes have attacked it. Or have they refurbished it as a repair facility for their subs - or other vessels?

This is a photo of the area. I used it once in WOE. The submarine pen is on the left, about two-thirds of the way up.

[PHXPhlyer]

More about Juraj Cintula:

The man who shot the Slovak Prime Minister by Peter G Feher.

In light of all this, I think it is wrong to link the attack with Fico’s decision not to provide more assistance to Ukraine. Especially since Slovak society is quite pro-Russian. Let’s not forget that Bratislava still celebrates the occupation of the Slovak capital by Soviet troops during World War II.
There is no significant anti-Russian sentiment in deep society. On the other hand, the average Slovak is concerned about the possibility of the country being drawn into war. Slovakia practically has no army anymore, because the previous left-liberal government gave everything to the Ukrainians. A typical situation is that the defense of Slovak airspace is provided by the Hungarian Air Force.
However, according to indications, the attack can be linked to the fierce internal political struggle in Slovakia. A month ago, Fico posted a video on social media in which he talks about how the progressive media will shoot him and his government. The video was leaked to the Austrian daily Der Standard.

- and:

In a recording that was part of the political fight at that time, the Prime Minister criticized the texts of progressive media, which, in his opinion, could lead to violence against state officials. “I only expect that this frustration deepened by Denník N. Smečko or Aktualita (that it will happen) will turn into the murder of one of the government’s leading politicians, and I am not exaggerating even a millimeter,” Fico added.

The article refers to him as a killer but no one was killed.
It also refers to the crime as murder.
Just a few points about accuracy.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Nothing like local knowledge!
Did the museum look like it could be put back into use? Condition of quays? Still water-filled, etc?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Belbek - Sat image before/after.
Looks like 2 Mig-31 Foxhounds are toast!
The third burnt out area is, I think, the ready-use refueling tanks.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112452372356216291

[PHXPhlyer]

Ukrainian partisans have given an exact position for the fire at Belbek on the second night, here
https://www.google.com/maps/place/44%C2 ... m/data=!3m

Over 50 A/C on the flightline, in the open, in this view.
I wonder how many were there when the strike happened.
If there were A/C there, a few extra missiles might have been a worthwhile expenditure.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

This airfield is easy for Ukraine-friendly locals to oversee. Coupled with sat-int, I would expect the Ukrainians to have a good idea of what was where before the strike.
Quite a few of the aircraft are obviously parked in storage positions. There are 9 Mig-29s and 3 L39s which may not have moved since the end of the Cold War.
There are a lot of both types at many Russian air bases, many of which have clearly not flown in a long time.
It would be a waste to hit those.
Whilst there are about 32 Su-27/30 Flankers and my guess of 6 Mig-31 Foxhounds normally based there, some may be at other airfields for a variety of reasons.
The Russians may, for instance, only put the couple of Mig 31s which are due to fly shortly there, as the Khinzal missiles may be stored elsewhere.
This may explain why there are enough revetments for 6 but only two jets visible.
Or those jets may be in some of the 6 hardened shelters to the east of the control tower.
If some Flankers are unflyable for lack of spares, then it may or may not be worthwhile hitting them.
One would need detailed engineering knowledge of exactly which spares were lacking to decide that.
I count 10 which are not in ready use parking and lacking spares, 5 which are probably having Second Line servicing done (SW corner) and are normally flyable, and 23 ready for flight.
I think the SW-most slot by the water tank is probably the engine test facility. Looks like a deflector behind the jet sitting there, and it may have engine access panels off.
And from that I conclude that the hangar nearby is the servicing hangar, and the other 4 jets there are being serviced.

Update: More Here
https://www.twz.com/news-features/damag ... an-strikes
Looks like a Flanker destroyed as well - this position will be the Quick Reaction Alert jets, every air force normally has two, and I think the Ukes got one.

[Dushan]

Even if someone's a Saint, their Great(x20)grandfather probably stabbed someone else's Great(x20) grandfather, and there's a score to settle.

Oh, you have us Slavs figured out 100%. Serbs still carry a grudge against Turks because of the 500-year old lost battle of Kosovo.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The 20x was not randomly chosen

[probes]

yep, old grudges are hard to die.

Belbek damage confirmed, and tnx Fox for the thorough post! Tonight 'developments' in Dzhankoi.
No specific data about the massive night-attack on Novorossiisk naval base and oil facility (Tuapse). Yet.
Some events in Simferopol as well.

ruz sent Iran drones to Kharkiv. About 20.
Situation 'on the field' (troops) is somewhat unclear (who's where and vv).

No ruz advances elsewhere. Not that they haven't tried.

[tango15]

Nothing like local knowledge!
Did the museum look like it could be put back into use? Condition of quays? Still water-filled, etc?

In typical style, everything of value, including the pumps and electrical systems had been removed. However, it was lit by a new system and there was clear water in the pen to a substantial level. We walked along the quays, which were clean and unobstructed. There were storage areas built into the rock on either side of the quays, which were clearly of a considerable size. They were unlit, but they had mounted photos on the doors, which appeared to be made of steel grating, no doubt to help air circulation. The tunnel goes a long way underground and has a (deliberate?) curve in it. You cannot access it all the way, but someone asked how far it went and they said about 1.5 km!
Strangely, there was none of the 'underground' smell and dampness that you associate with such places, perhaps helped by the constant breeze down the inlet, bitter in the winter, hence the naming of the head garment after it.
Not my photo, but an example of the storage areas. (These were not open when I visited, and a lot of reparations were taking place). The museum had only been open for a few months when I visited in 2002.



The Ruz could certainly get a lot of kit inside this area, away from prying eyes and impregnable, though it would have to be brought in by sea. My guess is, that given the close proximity of Sebastopol, which is completely open, anything of use will have been moved to the tunnel. One imagines the museum is now closed!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Very interesting.
Looks usable to me.

Meanwhile; go to sleep Russians, your air defence already has!
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112455214341204862

and

"For the first time since the start of the war, none of the brigades complain that there are no artillery projectiles. And this has been happening for the last 2 months. However, we still have to work a lot. The Czech initiative will go ahead. We are negotiating with all partners about money,"

Zelenskyi said.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Hi-res satellite of Belbek:
Hit List
2 MiG-31
1 Su-27
1 MiG-29
1 Fuel dump
1/2 S-400 battery
A good night's work. About $530m of Russian hardware up in smoke.
Cost of missiles: $18m
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112454934090309139
No image of the weapons bunker yet. That will be a Brucie Bonus to the damage count.

[probes]

more intel from Belbek [as Fox specified while I was typing ] - the hit precision has reportedly caused panic (for ruz) - as far as known, no ATACMS has been grounded and all of them have been ruthlessly precise. So, if and when UKR actually sends the 'regular' 6 ATACMS towards airfields in ruz... the ruz mil bloggers seem to suddenly have realised which territories are 'theirs' and which ones are occupied. Temporarily .
Hence another round of nuke-threats to the West and big headlines about ruz and China being the civilization's saviours and a pair of peace doves.
As ruz has advanced almost solely due to their glide bombs - should the airfields be hit, and they will, what then?

Of course UKR has their problem with ruz ballistic missiles as well, as the Patriot + PAC-3 do not (and probably never can) cover the whole huge territory.

Anyway, the air defence in the Crimea is nothing to write home about at the moment.
Good news from the 'drone front' Drones with “machine vision” are being mass-produced in Ukraine

Tuapse, Lyutyi, no air defence:
https://x.com/mhmck/status/1791325072126288006

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Machine vision is very difficult. I did a bit on it in my physics degree, and have made an attempt to keep up with it since.
Essentially, spotting objects from a background is a massive operation in parallel processing, and we are still not sure just how our own brains do it.
It can be made easier by, as the article (thanks again, Probes) says, looking in more than one EM spectrum.
Find a hot green thing is a good way to hit a tank, rather than a tree or a schoolbus, and the drone doesn't need to learn what a tank looks like from every angle.
When you add in precise position information, it can get a lot easier than the problem might at first appear.
It's also relatively easy to get the drone to reject decoys, once the details of the decoy are known.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

and more drone strike video, from Novorossiysk this time
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112455782919483383

putin will be doing his nut this morning.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Welcome to 21st Century warfare.
Ground drones position themselves over Russian bunkers, and blow the roof off.
Air drones then dive inside.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112456259280123063