Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[probes]

updates:


(sry for the typos in the previous post!)

[probes]

quite interesting issues - as the Novorossisk mazut storage was hit, problems arise: ruz does not use mazut massively, meaning they need storage, meaning if they produce and there's not enough storage...
Then, the mine sweeper reported to have been hit. Some analysts believe it is too insignificant a target, and another one (Kinzhal-capable Cyclon or Tsiklon) was actually hit:


And ruz mil bloggers are complaining about not only the shells from friendly countries, but also the ruz-produced ones have developed problems with the explosive stuff in there - not exploding while still in the gun, but totally off the target. Problem is, of course, that if you shoot in large numbers, something will be hit. ruz double-taps are especially nasty.
The bloggers are reportedly pissed off by the propaganda-puppet anecdotes about all ATACMS having been shot down as soon as fired (if that's the word?) by UKR.
No reports on the latest drone results. Yet, probably.
About 1400 ruz troops lost.

One of my favorite pieces of music. [Karelia suite]

my favorite

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Of course, there's always the traditional way of disposing of Blyatmobiles...
just rely on Russian stupidity
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports

my favorite

I helmed a yacht out of Bergen harbour one morning, Tall Ships Race. Had to have this playing on the stereo

[probes]

Zelenskyi has asked the West to at least destroy the missiles in UKR airspace intended by ruz to kill UKR civilians. Which is what I haven't understood - Poland's fighters are alerted and up there, but do not take the missiles down, how's that normal or human - somewhere it was said UKR needs to express the 'wish' for them to do so. OK, now Zelenskyi has.
Analysis incl. about the helicopter crash and the ban on US missiles on ruz soil and air here: Update from Ukraine | SCALP targets Ruzzian Base in Luhansk | Iranian President Kaputted by Denys Davydov (I've posted it before and in my mind it's really reasonable, but the opening screen does not reflect the sensible content at all, so just a link for you to open if you also think it's been reasonable.)

UKR - a large air strike in the occupied Luhansk on the former Ministry of Internal Affairs academy building.
More intel on the Tsiklon submarine, which might have been in Sevastopol (while it wasn't the 'sub' yet) because it is the main base for loading the Kinzhal cruise missiles onto ships, which in turn would mean that Novorossiisk has not yet managed to get the capability.

The big pic on the frontline has not changed much. ruz is in Vovchansk - on the other hand, ruz can't bomb it into a carpet then. The US repeating again their ban on their equipment surely encourages ruz to spread on their border - UKR is not allowed (HOW crazy can that be??) to destroy ruz on their ground.

The moment to watch this one, I guess (March 2024):
A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

India announced they will participate in the peace summmit in Switzerland in June. Good news.
Elections in Iran scheduled for June 28 - probably good for preventing anything 'bigger', even though an influential leader dead means a lot symbolically.

P.S and a ruz official has said that of course there's no need for general mobilization, but IF (which will definitely not happen), so IF the situation would officially be set as 'war' (which will never happen as everything is going by plans of the emperor) then of course everyone is expected to go, especially the faraway regions, where fathers have several children (up to now those with 3 or more kids were not taken).

[probes]

Quite a detailed one from CNN:

‘Code 9.2’: The secretive Ukrainian drone unit tasked with dropping mines into Russia

The “Code 9.2” drone unit, from the 92nd assault brigade, are moving into a new launch position from where they are about to conduct a rare and potent mission: flying drones into Russia and dropping mines onto key roads inside enemy territory.

Twilight provides a moment of opportunity to set up new equipment and unload their Humvee before dark makes these complex tasks impossible. They can only hope the grey, fading light shields them from the endless stream of Russian drones that fly overhead, looking for something to strike.

[probes]

As the frontline is quite static in the wider pic (despite advances to Kharkiv and in Donbas) and some analysts say ruz is already past their momentum due to losses of men and machines, ruz has started tactical nuclear drills (Southern Military District forces) to scare off supporters of UKR who have grown more resilient to threats.
Especially as the F-16 are to arrive soon and the main advantage of glide bombs might come to an end.
The Black Sea fleet currently has only ten ships capable of launching Kalibr-class missiles, and even so there's problem with loading the missiles - shore infrastructure deficit.
The question is - are the UKR allies actually ok with ruz losing? FRA and the UK are, but...

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 21.05.24 were approximately:
personnel ‒ about 495070 (+1380) persons,
tanks ‒ 7605 (+15),
APV ‒ 14699 (+34),
artillery systems – 12779 (+42),
MLRS – 1077 (+1),
Anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 811 (+4),
aircraft – 354 (+0),
helicopters – 326 (+0),
UAV operational-tactical level – 10290 (+54),
cruise missiles ‒ 2207 (+2),
warships / boats ‒ 27 (+0),
submarines - 1 (+0),
vehicles and fuel tanks – 17383 (+72),
special equipment ‒ 2085 (+6)
Data are being updated. MoD of UKR

[probes]

More about the now-sub Tsiklon: it had the capability of 8 Kalibr missiles and (unconfirmed) 4 on board when went down (per ruz bloggers).
The airfields in the Crimea have a 'reduced' force as well, so... neither is the air defence up to the task.
ruz troops not happy about it.
The situation around Belgorod and the Kharkiv direction is quite a mess, as the 'buffer zone' is tricky to establish without more mess in Belgorod (e.g around 50 'friendly' glide bombs in May on ruz or ruz-occupied territory). It's not so easy to know which settlement is which from high above, as you know , especially with quite similar bends of some river here and there.
Nothing much left of Vovchansk and Chasiv Yar, but ruz has not totally got them. Krynky was 'occupied' for the 5th time as per ruz media - the reality is ongoing hard fighting and heavy losses for ruz.
Lancet drones are the worst for UKR, on average 20 a day and no real good means for downing these.

UKR drones have been successful, too - the 4th BUK destroyed. Development of sea drones has been extra fast and efficient, attempts to have air defence on drones in progress.



And the West is guilty of another mortal sin - their movies are demotivating ruz population to have as many children as needed. Nothing to do with young men killed en masse, of course.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

It's not so easy to know which settlement is which from high above, as you know , especially with quite similar bends of some river here and there.

Number of static targets misidentified by any operational NATO aircrew I've ever met/seen film of: Zero*
And that was before GPS/GLONASS, etc.
What may be happening is that the Russian GPS jamming to suppress Ukrainian drones, is, of course, jamming their own aircraft (and drones) too,
and they've forgotten how to do it the old way.
That said, the only Russian bombing runs I've seen, of last year's Russian Volunteer Corps incursions, were just dire. Couldn't hit a cow's backside with a shovel.

*The Yanks have a habit of misidentifying moving things, like AFVs, unfortunately.

[probes]

- yeah, if it were soviet times, no pilot would be spatially disoriented... not the smokers, that is! The old joke said they were never without a map to navigate by:



The brand was so wide-spread it's even in Wikipedia

[tango15]

Strewth - it's been a long time since I last saw a packet of those. Yes, the word ubiquitous was coined to describe them, On sale wherever you went, and very cheap they were, too. Had a very distinct aroma, apparently made from Georgian and Turkish tobacco. They were not very well packed, and the strands frequently dropped out and onto people's clothing and elsewhere, with predictable results.

[llondel]

Look! Squirrel!

There have been calls for calm in Finland and the Baltic states after a draft Russian decree proposed revising its borders in the Baltic Sea.

Latvia said it was trying to clarify the situation, but Lithuania warned that the Kremlin was aiming to intimidate its neighbours with a "deliberate, targeted escalatory provocation".

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said political leaders were watching the situation closely and Helsinki "acts as always: calmly and based on facts".

The draft Russian defence ministry decree suggested moving the sea borders around Russian islands in the Gulf of Finland and around the exclave of Kaliningrad.

Distraction tactics to make NATO look elsewhere, perhaps?

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6ppl5v1lwzo

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Highly likely.

[probes]

Success on the front of 'strategic information'. The Western press, of course, eagerly laps up everything meant to be lapped up.

SU-25 down (the 5th in May).
Yamal Airlines twice in trouble, one with Suhkoi Superjet.. Technical issues, youknow.
Sweden is going to give mil aid to UKR - 7 billion in 3 years, which hints at very capable equipment.
Blinken is 'preparing papers' for Biden to allow US missiles on ruz territory. The idea struck him after visiting Kiyv.
Speaker Johnson, believe it or not, supports the idea.
China suspected to have given ruz lethal equipment.
As for the frontline - Bakhmut and Krasnohorivka not doing well, elsewhere as usual (ruz is trying, UKR is not letting them to).

More in the video-update by Denys Davydov.

P.S and Norway restricts ruz tourists entering the country.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Speaker Johnson, and others in Congress, have pointed out that it is not Congress putting restrictions on the use of US weaponry supplied to Ukraine.
This is not, of course, the first US President to put idiotic restrictions on weapon use, nor is Biden the only western leader currently doing it.
Still, that's what you get with corrupt, stupid cowards in charge - just ask the Roman Empire....oh, wait...

[probes]

As for the long-gone empires, there's a doc investigating into 'climate change' (drought and famine due to the Mediterranean cooling = less evaporation, less rain) that pushed the people into move, which resulted in fighting etc.

OK, from the NYT (extracts):

After a sobering trip to Kyiv, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is urging the president to lift restrictions on how Ukraine can use American arms.

Since the first American shipments of sophisticated weapons to Ukraine, President Biden has never wavered on one prohibition: President Volodymyr Zelensky had to agree to never fire them into Russian territory, insisting that would violate Mr. Biden’s mandate to “avoid World War III.”
But the consensus around that policy is fraying. Propelled by the State Department, there is now a vigorous debate inside the administration over relaxing the ban to allow the Ukrainians to hit missile and artillery launch sites just over the border in Russia — targets that Mr. Zelensky says have enabled Moscow’s recent territorial gains.

But officials involved in the deliberations said Mr. Blinken’s position had changed because the Russians had opened a new front in the war, with devastating results. Moscow’s forces have placed weapons right across the border from northeastern Ukraine, and aimed them at Kharkiv — knowing the Ukrainians would only be able to use non-American drones and other weaponry to target them in response.

For months, Mr. Zelensky has been mounting attacks on Russian ships, oil facilities and electricity plants, but he has been doing so largely with Ukrainian-made drones, which don’t pack the power and speed of the American weapons. And increasingly, the Russians are shooting down the Ukrainian drones and missiles or sending them astray, thanks to improved electronic warfare techniques.
Now, the pressure is mounting on the United States to help Ukraine target Russian military sites, even if Washington wants to maintain its ban on attacking oil refineries and other Russian infrastructure with American-provided arms. Britain, usually in lockstep with Washington on war strategy, has quietly lifted its own restrictions, so that its “Storm Shadow” cruise systems can be used to target Russia more broadly.

Another hint of a shift came in recent days. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, in repeating the usual administration position — “our expectation is that they continue to use the weapons that we’ve provided on targets inside of Ukraine” — seemed to suggest that there may be exceptions made for Russian aircraft operating in the safety of Russian territory, just over the border, enabling pilots to release glide bombs into eastern Ukraine.
“The aerial dynamic’s a little bit different,” Mr. Austin allowed, but he struggled to articulate the new standard. “And so — but again, don’t — don’t want to speculate on any — any one or — or any type of engagement here at the podium, so.”
When a reporter followed up by asking whether such aerial operations by the Russians were “off-limits or not off-limits?” Mr. Austin did not respond.

In a notable break from the administration’s public position, Victoria Nuland, who left her position as No. 3 official in the State Department this spring, is now making a public argument that the administration needs to drop its ban on the use of its weapons against targets inside Russia.

“I think if the attacks are coming directly from over the line in Russia, that those bases ought to be fair game,” she said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”

“I think it’s time for that because Russia has obviously escalated this war,” she added, noting that Russia’s attack on Kharkiv is an effort “to decimate it without ever having to put a boot on the ground. So I think it is time to give the Ukrainians more help hitting these bases inside Russia.”

Inside the White House, a Debate Over Letting Ukraine Shoot U.S. Weapons Into Russia

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Find me an article these days that doesn't blame 'climate change' for something major.
Although they aren't doing their argument for Anthropogenic Climate Change any good.
In any case, the pre-modern 'changes' to climate were just normal climate variation, not a thousand year change.
And what causes the collapse is not climate as such, it's an unstable system that can self destruct under any significant negative event.
And the evidence is all there from a succession of prior negative events which weren't dealt with, and each made the system less stable.
You know all the things that contributed to the collapse of the Roman Empire; stuff like poorly handled pandemics, and mass devaluation of the currency by excessive government spending, and reduced productivity from the destruction of a meritocracy, and mass immigration, and senile patriarchs or spoilt children in charge, and wars dragging on for ages because of crap strategies......

[probes]

Right, that's what I was thinking - the Anthropogenic issue - even though the Homo not-so-sapiens has been inconsiderate to nature, and greedy.

OK, to the developments of the homo malus activities.
The number of ruz attacks has decreased significantly, even though they took two villages (Donetsk and Southern front). The wish to get rid of UKR troops on the banks of the Dnepr is remarkable (glide bombs), no success though. Kharkiv advance has been stopped, Syrskyiu says, ruz retreated from Vovchansk.
The 6th SU-25 down (in May, counting).
Some data that ruz has lost 25 SU-34 (since Feb 2022), and probably 25 more, but no confirmation for these. ruz can produce 1 per month.
Poland has announced they could cover some of UKR skies - probably not any time soon, but that's better than nothing, at least it's being considered.
15 ruz missiles to Kharkiv area. Zelenskiy wants to use Western missiles on ruz, no permission yet.
Red hot showers in the Crimea (Belbek, Novofedorovka AD, Saki, more information during the day).
Donetsk - Components of a second S-300 and more AD destroyed - preparations for F-16 arrival are on.

ruz has reduced petrol production and officials admit it's impossible to protect 'all facilities'. More arrests in the MoD, probably the nuclear drills are meant to distract media, as the higher mil removed from the ministery had significant roles (and trust) and it's sure to cause confusion - for a while at least.

[probes]

More from Denys Davydov Update from Ukraine | ATACMS Time! Important radar in Crimea and many S-400s were Hit

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Thanks.
Looks like a satellite comms Earth station, but others here know more about this than me.
Suchominus has more on the Tsiklon maybe going down in Sevastopol harbour

I agree with him that it's on the bottom.
The clearout in the Russian MoD is just a consequence of Shoigu getting the boot. The new guy will want all his cronies in their places.
I doubt very much it will create anything but a bit more inefficiency.

Another S300/S400 system bites the dust, this time in Donetsk. Probably the one you mentioned.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112494873797357340

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I think the success of ATACMS will be worrying putin mightily, especially against S400.
Unlike the delays with other systems, I think the US Army had good grounds for delaying ATACMS transfer, as they had very limited stocks and needed to get the latest ATACMS missiles made in sufficient numbers to send Ukraine the old ones.
As I mentioned a long while before, I think they only had 1 per launcher.
Obviously this initial batch has done very well. The question now is whether more can be sent soon, and at what rate. It depends on the production rate of new ones in the US.