Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[PHXPhlyer]

(P.S: I'll be mostly in read-only mode for a week, so, guys, keep it interesting!)

Doing something fun hopefully.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The long range drone strikes continue.
Looks like the Ukes got an Su-57 stealth fighter this time
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112585628434125655
Akhtubinsk air base is about 600 km east from the contact line, on the east bank of the lower Volga.

From the concrete repairs, the SU-57 is on this parking slot, about the middle of the main flight line.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/48%C2 ... ?entry=ttu

A Russian source confirms damage, degree unknown,
however both impact points are less than 6m from the airframe, so this one is probably going to the Fire Section for practice!
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112585631551935726

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Happy Ending

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1799826150107283956

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Three SAM sites claimed hit by Ukraine in Crimea last night, One S-400 and two S-300.
Pics of two sites emerging
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112592705255397333
These are 'before' pics. Seems to be S-300/S-400

NASA fire map shows non-usual heat sources at the following locations
45.5967917,34.4362581, S of Dzhankoi.
45.1009668,35.3427961, NW of Feodosia
45.4474117,32.7422231, S of Chornomors'ke

These would all be reasonable locations for area SAM units.
It's possible the lefthand pic in the link is one of the two S-300 sites, near either Feodosia or Chornomors'ke,
and the righthand pic is the S-400 near Dzhankoi.
12 ATACMS may have been used.

Ukrainian official sources claim a site NW of Yevpatoria attacked, but there's no fire there from the NASA data.

The attacks were probably between 1am and 2am local, based on the Kerch Bridge closure.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russians look to move more air defence to Belgorod from Crimea.

Russia finally making an attempt to increase air defence against drones.
Mobile units are to be equipped with ZSU 23-2 towed AAA.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112592595454549762
These are 1960's vintage, and they probably have a hundred thousand of them in storage. Some have been upgraded with laser rangefinders and a couple of slaved ManPADs.
So, why not earlier?
Possibilities include:
They are in a terrible state
they have no trained crews
Almost none have been upgraded
They will be useless at night
The troops firing them will be more of a danger to their own side than the drones.
Or, of course, the usual All Of The Above.
I doubt this will make much difference.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

New image out of the claimed S-400 destruction near Dzhankoi.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112593140597247451
This isn't where the NASA fire was.
I have geolocated it to here, at the southern edge of the main rail marshalling yard in Dzhankoi itself.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/45%C2 ... ?entry=ttu
This could be a radar, probably the surveillance radar - which is less likely to burn - with the missile launchers in the field to the south
Looks like we will have to wait for better imagery to assess the strike locations and effects accurately. 2-4 days from now, probably.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The giveaway.
Not sure if this is accidental or not; I have a slight bias to thinking this is accidental.

Looks like Patriot was used at kinematic max range to shootdown at least one of the A-50 Mainstays, and possibly all of them.
A modified SA-5 was claimed by the Ukrainians. Seems they took the liberty of bullsh!tting us.
https://x.com/AirPowerNEW1/status/1799830592902795371

It's possible that they used PAC-2 missiles, but maybe David's Sling was needed.
The major difficulty was probably getting the Patriot system close enough to the front line to engage the A-50s without losing the system to Russian attacks, like Lancet, or just straightforward artillery.
They were probably within a very few km of the contact line.

[Boac]

I assume the odd person in Ukraine has noticed that choo-choo trains seem to be running on the bridge again now the ferries are having 'trouble'...................

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Are they fuel and ammo trains, which were the ones going by ferry?
Non-flammable trains have been running normally for a while.

Higher res pic of the Su-57 damaged - likely a write-off.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112593928279106941
Russian source indicates minor damage to a second Su-57
I would imagine that was in the now-empty adjacent slot, and is in the hangar for 'buffing out'.

[Boac]

Fuel, I believe. I hear they burn quite well.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Oh, goody!

I wonder if they close the bridge to road traffic whilst a train crosses?
Maybe that's the reason for the 1am-2am closure yesterday night.
It would remove the truck bomb repeat.

Update: The bridge was closed for a little under an hour. If the fuel train moves at typically western heavy train speeds, about 15mph/25 kph, that would be a possible explanation.

[tango15]

For reasons that I have never fully understood, Russian trains of all persuasions seem to move slowly. I was told many years ago, that all timetables in Russia are predicated on the trains running at 50km/hr. This is because the signalling systems and the tracks were in poor condition, and could not cope with higher speeds, so this would be a rational explanation. I have done the Moscow-St Petersburg train journey a few times, on what is described as an экспресс, but in fact travels at the same speed as normal trains and stops at a few stations along the way. The journey took seven hours, which suggests an average speed of about 100km/hr, and is, one assumes, considered fast enough to be called an express. I understand that this line has now been completely re-laid and the journey can be completed in about 3.5 hours, but the regular train service still exists.
The poor signalling means that freight trains are continuously delayed. I was told that they can spend hours sitting on a loop line waiting for a 'path'. It will come as no surprise to learn that the locomotives frequently break down, meaning the line is blocked for a considerable time.
I would say that 25kph would be a typical speed for a freight train. As in North America, they tend to be very long and thus very heavy, so speed is not an option.

[John Hill]

A single track network, or areas where there is only a single track all trains are effectively limited to the speed of the slowest train. Consider for example a 100 mile single track line with a single layby at about midpoint. Train A leaves going north and train B leaves going south. No matter how fast train A goes it must wait at the layby for train B to go by.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Nearly 9 minute video by a Ukrainian drone unit, helping to defeat a Russian advance which got as far as partly occupying Ukrainian trenches before being beaten back.

Stuff I found interesting
Information coming in by phone, radio, multiple drones (one always surveillance), and possibly satellite also.
They appear to be in direct contact with the Ukrainian front line troops.
Data streams dropping out are a problem.
They have a selection of weapons and drones, and cobble together an appropriate drone for each mission, with a very short cycle time.
The level of surveillance is very high, noticing whether doors are open or closed at a property on different days.
Clearly the Russian habit of leaving doors (and tank hatches) open is killing them.
A lot of the stuff they use is western-supplied.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russia appears to have backed off the nuclear threats stuff in the last week, following a clear statement by putin that he did not foresee a situation where they would be used.
Nothing has changed for the better operationally, so why the change?
1. To avoid threat fatigue, and nukes will reappear later?
2. Russia has been warned off such threats, possibly by Xi?
3. To avoid using such threats whilst assorted talks about peace are in progress?
4. Something to do with the US election?
5. Any or All of the Above?

Opinions or other suggestions welsome.

[tango15]

My take would be all of items 1-3. It's probably too early for them to be thinking seriously about item 4, given recent events.
Putin seems to have wound his neck in a little, more recently, and I am beginning to wonder if even he is getting war-weary. I had an email from one of my Russian correspondents today, who was complaining that their laptop is dying, but owing to the sanctions, new ones are not easily available and of course more expensive. They are cautious in what they say for obvious reasons, but reading between the lines, so to speak, the impression I have is that you can still pick up a new Lada easily enough, but a new Merc might be more problematic.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I understand Lamborghinis are selling spectacularly well in Belarus - sales have increased by the amount that were lost when the Russian dealerships stopped getting supplies.

[llondel]

Reports of Russian warships being shadowed by US Navy ships near Key Largo in Florida.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-navy-shadow ... ta-1911106

I guess they figure that the US has sent all its missiles to Ukraine, so by parking their fleet near Florida, they'll be out of range. Most likely off to Cuba for a holiday.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I've found a pic of a Russian fuel train crossing the Kerch Bridge 3 days ago, obviously taken from someone's car window, so they don't shut it to road traffic.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Updates on the strikes on SAM sites in Crimea
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112602724620234847
About 10km north of Yevpatoriya. Not one of the NASA fire sites I listed earlier, and there are no big scorch marks.
There are tractors without trailers. This would imply the original tractors AND trailers were damaged, and the original trailers have been hauled away by new tractors for repair/concealment, with the original tractors unable to move.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112603009572214008
About 10 km south of Dzhankoi. This is the first of the NASA fire sources I listed.
The spacing of the three scorch marks to the south is consistent with the normal 90m spacing of launchers that the Russians have been using at Dzhankoi, so I would guess they lost 3 launchers as well as the radar here.