Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[tango15]

I see that the rouble has 'fallen out of bed', as the currency traders put it. There's been a serious decline in its value against major currencies, and Gazprombank (the country's third largest), is in the thick of it. This is the bank that handles all the oil and gas transactions, and thus the foreign currency. Anyone got a wheelbarrow to spare...?
For their part, the government spokespeople are saying that it will make their exports cheaper. Exports of what? Cars? (no), TV sets ? (no), machine tools? (no), domestic electrical goods? (no - all imported FOC from Ukraine).
I think this will prove to be a more serious problem for Putin than the ongoing war.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/busin ... ll-386491/I

[probes]

Fingers crossed! - it really looks worse than the war, especially considering the lack of workforce and the need to restructure the economy again, when the war is over.

UKR is said to have agreed to start negotiations (obviously not with putin, though, there has to be some kind of team or whatever) form the baseline of February 23, 2022 - meaning, ruz troops would have to withdraw to where they were then.
Reportedly the main relevance of that is to show UKR is flexible.

[probes]

Ukrainian defenders hit oil depot in Russia's Rostov Oblast and destroy radar for Buk air defence system

ruz losses 29.11.2024
Tanks — 9458 (+8)
Armored fighting vehicle — 19339 (+33)
Artillery systems — 20886 (+34)
Anti-aircraft warfare — 1006 (+1)
UAV — 19750 (+89)
Cruise missiles — 2851 (+86)
Cars and cisterns — 30272 (+86)
Special equipment — 3700 (+3)
Military personnel — aprx. 738660 people (+2030)

[PHXPhlyer]

Ukrainian defenders hit oil depot in Russia's Rostov Oblast and destroy radar for Buk air defence system

ruz losses 29.11.2024
Tanks — 9458 (+8)
Armored fighting vehicle — 19339 (+33)
Artillery systems — 20886 (+34)
Anti-aircraft warfare — 1006 (+1)
UAV — 19750 (+89)
Cruise missiles — 2851 (+86)
Cars and cisterns — 30272 (+86)
Special equipment — 3700 (+3)
Military personnel — aprx. 738660 people (+2030)

Probes:
Do you have a source for a score card detailing UKR loses?
Just wondering how the losses match up.

PP

[tango15]

The Ukes appear to have successfully scuppered a useful piece of Russian naval equipment.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/explosi ... 73197.html

Some are saying it's close to Georgia, but it isn't. I know that coastline very well and it's not even that close to Sochi, which is much nearer to Georgia, and the airport at Adler is nearer still, just a few Kms away, so not really sure why. Anyway, subject to updates, it appears that significant damage may have been done to the vessel.

[probes]

Probes:
Do you have a source for a score card detailing UKR loses?
Just wondering how the losses match up.
PP

I've used this one, corroborated by some non-English sites.
минфин
(btw, alphabets for typing are available online, e.g. UKR: Type Ukrainian letters)

- aa, sry, I misread to match my hopes! - No, UKR does not publish exact numbers. Some estimates are available now and then, but generally their score is expected to be at least one zero less than ruz at the end of the number - they just can't afford that much. Or maybe aren't crazy enough.

[probes]

Putin Is FURIOUS. North Koreans CAN’T EVEN THROW GRENADES! Reporting from UKR

and, Denys (incl on Simferopol airfireld he has taken off from):

[tango15]

I see that there are the beginnings of a disagreement between Putin and Erdogan over the Syrian unpleasantness. Putin is going to have to tread very carefully, otherwise those tankers full of oil that pass through that narrow strait in Istanbul may become a rare sight.
It seems that the damage inflicted on the port at Tuapse may not have included a Russian navy vessel.
Daily troop losses in the Russian army are still north of 1500.

[probes]

Yeah, the anti-Assad forces' present to UKR (unintended, but then, they did see their window of opportunity?) seems to develop to more directions than one .

MOSCOW, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Friday it wanted the Syrian government to restore constitutional order in the Aleppo region as soon as possible after an insurgent offensive there that captured territory for the first time in years.
Russia, a staunch ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, intervened militarily on Assad's side against insurgents in 2015 in its biggest foray in the Middle East since the Soviet Union's collapse, and maintains an airbase and naval facility in Syria.

It wanted, sure.
Interesting, very interesting.
Also, putin visited Kazakhstan, "to discuss strengthening energy and industrial ties. Ahead of his visit, Astana announced plans to reduce oil exports via Russia by more than 80% and enhance protection of key infrastructure. Many experts view this as a response to the Kremlin’s recent hypersonic missile strike on Ukraine." And it is planning to increase its crude oil production, quite a lot at that, as far as I understand. Which will lower the cost down to to 'unbearable for ruz', it is said.
Btw, putin could pronounce Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's name flawlessly this time. One is never too old to learn!



Interesting, on Bradleys.

Kanal 13 has several more, interesting videos.

[probes]

[tango15]

Kazakhstan will no doubt get a better price for its oil from China, which is only next door. (Russia is too, but being the world's 9th largest country, Kazakhstan is quite close to a few others, as well. The chickens are coming home to roost now. All those years when Moscow took the oil, sold it for dollars and paid the suppliers in roubles, (at significantly lower prices than the OPEC prices at the time), are long-remembered.
Re the Bradley. The US can boast all it likes, but the Challenger 2 is also giving good account of itself, but being British, we don't boast about it!

[probes]

and putin struggling with the President's name (video incl):
Putin Struggling to Pronounce Ally Leader's Name Raises Eyebrows

[probes]

Has it been mentioned that the UKR ground forces commander was replaced with Mykhailo Drapatyi? Reportedly it's a welcome change by Zelenskyi.

Drapatyi is recognized as one of the commanders who played a key role in the liberation of the right-bank Kherson region. In February 2024, he was appointed Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces. In May of the same year, he became the commander of the Kharkiv operational and tactical group.

Kanal 13 has several interesting ones again, just one here:



riz losses 01.12.2024
Tanks — 9469 (+6)
Armored fighting vehicles — 19369 (+14)
Artillery systems — 20923 (+14)
UAV — 19803 (+11)
Cruise missiles — 2852 (+1)
Cars and cisterns — 30507 (+76)
Special equipment — 3619 (+2)
Military personnel — aprx. 742130 people (+1730)

putin's in trouble 'in the flanks', so to say, with Syria's tensions flaring up again, urgent need to tighten the grip in Georgia (unrest in Thbilisi) and neverending need to support the hezbollah and houthis.
God, what a mess.

[probes]

P.S having vague memories from my history classes at school about the grand battle at Kursk (WW II), I looked up what it actually was. Interesting [not quite what the soviet history books told us, of course ]. Took a look at the comments, seems to be an ok source.

[probes]

[probes]

OK, Jake Broe sums it up nicely again.
Israeli analyst Sergei Auslender is reported to have said - instead of Kiyv in 3 days, putin got Aleppo in 3 days. Lost, that is - not even sure about the pun .
Fighting for Aleppo took years, btw.

[probes]

The fall of Aleppo in 2016 was a grim prelude to Bucha, Mariupol, and Bakhmut in 2022. It was in Syria that Russian pilots learned how to raze Ukrainian cities to the ground. The world’s failure to stand up to Putin and Assad back then became an open invitation for Putin to invade Ukraine.

Today’s rebel success in Aleppo is promising. With Putin’s army being decimated in Ukraine, he likely can’t spare sufficient forces to save Assad. But the lesson remains: 2016 and 2022 could’ve been avoided if from the very beginning democracies had fought tyrants instead of just shaking the air with words.

Dmytro Kuleba

An analyst said the biggest mistake was not giving UKR the NATO road map (2008? I'm really bad at numbers), instead declaring that UKR (and Georgia) will be NATO members - some time in the future - which was a clear message to putin that the West is scared of annoying him, and there's no unity (the discussions being remarkable during the summit).



ruz losses 02.12.2024
Tanks — 9478 (+9)
Armored fighting vehicles — 19397 (+28)
Artillery systems — 20953 (+30)
UAV — 19886 (+83)
Cars and cisterns — 30606 (+99)
Military personnel — aprx. 743920 people (+1790)

Ukrainian drones struck a gas station where Russian equipment were located in Zaporizhzhia. (Kanal 13)

[probes]

Two more, looking promising -

Denys latest, Ruzzian breakthrough Failed in Kharkiv Region | Trump's plan is delulu

and with a brief recap, if you need one: NORTH Koreans Had Enough - They Want To Go Home

[probes]

Interesting developments.
As we know, ruz has 'regions' with heads of the regions. Reportedly the heads and deputies have been briefed to prepare for the time when the war is... sry! the special military operation is over, the goals have been achieved - no nazis et al in UKR - and the brave warriors return home. "Problem" is, they have been paid very well (the ones that did get anything, that is) and there aren't many jobs on the same salary level most probably; so, they have to be provided with meaningful activities plus respect and reverence has to be guaranteed (from the locals and general public).
Everybody has to understand that ruz won, of course.
(Meduza)
Then, the soviet 'glavlit' to censor written word has emerged again. Children's books have to be targeted, unsuitable themes have to be avoided. Youknow, the usual western vice of quadroplegs or tin soldiers preferring peace to warring. Something like the fairy tale by H. Ch. Andresen.

In Paris and London, there is growing discussion about an international peacekeeping mission that would ensure the maintenance of the current front line in case of an agreement with Putin. According to former BBN Chief Gen. Stanisław Koziej, such a mission makes sense. Still, it should be under the auspices of an international organization and must have the consent of both Ukraine and Russia.

[probes]

Frontlines: volatile (troops moving back and forth on both sides) and fierce (ruz attacking relentlessly - Pokrovsk and Kursk mainly).
ruz losses 03.12.2024
Tanks — 9486 (+8)
Armored fighting vehicles — 19419 (+22)
Artillery systems — 20976 (+23)
UAV — 19917 (+31)
Cruise missiles — 2855 (+3)
Cars and cisterns — 30666 (+60)
Special equipment — 3627 (+8)
Military personnel — aprx. 745700 people (+1780)

You'll notice that the numbers of armoured stuff destroyed have gone down, and an analyst said that ruz has reversed the regular 'tanks first, troops behind' - possibly or obviously not enough tanks and plenty of warriors to send where-ever. ruz aviation (=glide bombs) is somewhat less active, one would hope UKR hard work on ammo dumps and air bases has finally had some effect.
Frontline videos indicate ruz armoured vehicles just breaking down (UKR drone is there mostly to finish them off). The gear and kit of ruz soldiers is getting 'varied' again - models and year of production wise.

ruz railways are deep in trouble: lack of workforce, abandoned cargo units, speed going down (around 35 per hour for passenger trains).
Saudis are taking over ruz oil market in the West. Well, not all of it, but more and more.
Troubles with paying even to and from China seem to be there to stay and increase.

Syria: govt troops seem to have recovered from their shock and the variety in the region of opposition forces starts to show, with Turkey not liking the Kurds. Nevertheless, Assad is probably not going to fall tomorrow. Depending on ruz air capabilities (even though it's nothing like what they did in Aleppo previously) and iranian troops on the ground.

Zelenskyi has spoken an unexpected lot about possible negotiations. Lavrov says 'possible when they're sincerely into it' (read: surrender). putin is trying to keep up the narrative any negotiations being mainly the thing between him and the US.

No signs of people in Georgia getting less unhappy with the proposed thaw towards ruz. Protests are growing, police is trying hard.