Ops-Normal.org

If you are wondering where the counter-opinion man has gone, it's due to all the Russian news sources not having published anything about what's happening on the fronts for two days.
To be fair, they probably haven't got a clue how much they've actually lost.

But it must be....

Since the Russians are sending in guys with no training, the Ukrainian forces have decided to do it for them
Lesson #1 - How to surrender, and what to expect when surrendering

This completes your course!

There are a lot of videos like this one.
Large groups of mobilized Russian men, dumped at various places for days at a time with NO:
idea when they will move again
officers
food
training
shelter

..but most of them appear to have been issued weapons.
An AK and 4 magazines appears to be the standard issue.

..and they all have vodka.
Lots of vodka.

1917, anyone?

Video taken during an attack by Uke mounted infantry, just going for it to cover the open ground and close the target as fast as possible.
One is taken out crossing the small berm, I am guessing by landmine from the explosion pattern and that the tracks converge at that point (so it would be a good place to put one).
Then more insane footage. IFV gets hit by an RPG (maybe two), I think. One guy's on fire but they roll him around and put it out

Daily summary:
There have been no reliable reports on specific operations or liberation of settlements, other than those in areas behind where liberations were announced yesterday.
Russian media remains silent on the battle situation.
The Ukrainians are likely attempting multi-pronged attacks, and have several options as to where they might go, and what the next objectives may be. They are therefore practising OPSEC, and this is effective.
Based on my own assessments of where they may be going next, it's possible we may hear little to nothing confirmed, possibly for up to 5 days but likely at least tomorrow as well, unless there's a major collapse on either front, or a third front opens up.
About the only thing we can be sure of is that this is not going Russia's way.
The Russian bloggers are describing their situation in all areas as "Difficult"
Unfortunately, they don't have Ethan Hunt on their side

This video may be part of the same attack shown earlier. It's definitely not the same berm crossing point, but the clouds are very similar.
FAST is the only way to cross the big open fields. They dump the infantry off at the treeline, then presumably back off until they have fought their way through an enemy position.
Then maybe back for the next sprint. On the Kherson front, the Ukes advanced 42km in the previous two days.

General Ben Hodges' plan as to how Ukraine can win, as printed in yesterday's DM

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... perts.html

You will note it's the same as my plan.
Except I have the 2nd echelon going east of Luhansk. I think Ben Hodges would too, and the DM has just done a representative arrow that looks neater.
That doesn't mean I should be commanding US forces in Europe, it just means any experienced junior officer with half a brain can work this out.
So there's a 50% chance the Russians can
The questions are:
1) Can Russia do anything about it?
And I think the answer is No.They don't have the organisation, the logistics, or the quality of manpower or equipment.
The Russians' best troops are currently engaged around Kherson. When that's over, largely they will be replaced by border guards and unwilling mobilized guys.

2) Can the Ukes launch a third front shortly?
I don't know either. It will have to be soon to show benefit by winter.

3) Will this be all over by winter?
No
But depending on how the equipment situation works out for both sides, it could be over by the Spring rasputitsa.
A winter war consisting of a few lightning strikes by much better equipped Ukrainian forces could work.
Not much will be moving in November, however. Once things harden up with frozen ground, and as long as there isn't too much snow, things get easier for movement.

4) Can the Kerch Bridge be taken out?
Don't know. Would be really great if it could.

Early news on Day 225 of putin's 3 day war.
Russian media and proxies publish no news from the front for the third day running.
Comprehensive analysis online of how Russia will conduct its final defence in Kherson....and is matched by the list of targets the Ukes hit last night and this morning!
Another couple of Russian-occupied buildings in the middle of Kherson get hit during the night - no sleep for the bad guys, wondering if they will be next.

Russian assaults intensify around Bakhmut, with minimal progress. Obviously the Russian generals are desperate for their daily "We are making gains" report to putin.

Yet more ammo kindly provided by the Russians, so that it can be fired straight back at them in their new positions.



This is a new level of stupid, like pan-galactic stupid.

I mean, not only are the Russians doing 99% of the logistics work for the Ukes, AND reducing their own ability to attack, but it's the calibre of ammo the Ukes are most in need of because NATO can't supply it!!

More on that. This Russians are providing the artillery also!!

I found the above interview from al Jazeera an interesting insight to the Russian perspective.

I gave up 3/4 of the way through.
Both interviewer and pundit meet the definition of IYI

They avoid all discussion of any reality on the ground.
"It doesn't bring the results that the Russian leadership was anticipating"
WTAF? Sounds exactly like Hirohito's
"The war has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage" shortly after getting nuked twice.
Zero evidence is provided to justify opinions.

All the pundit does is repeat the Russian party line when asked what he thinks.
Now obviously, he has the prospect of falling out of high windows or drinking bad cups of tea to consider, but what then is the point of having him on?

And, with respect, I don't think we discover anything of the Russian perspective, just what the official Russian perspective is, and we know that, and we know it's completely out of touch with reality.
The bit around 12 minutes was ridiculous - Ukraine would have lost without help?
What, nations aren't "allowed" allies any more, unlike the rest of human history?And Russia didn't anticipate that??
He offers zero evidence, either on his own part or from the official line, that Ukraine has its options restricted by its allies. It is, therefore, de facto independent.

For clarity, that's an assassination job on the piece, not you LSP

The greatest imbalance presently is that Russia is capable of hitting Ukrainian cities well outside of any combat area with long range missiles. The US should get some guts and supply the Ukrainians with ATACMS missiles on the declared restriction that they may be used against military targets inside Russia in direct retaliation for attacks made on Ukrainian cities outside of the combat zone.

.

I think in the next few weeks the need for ATACMS missiles will disappear. The range of the currently supplied weapons is enough to make the necessary attacks for the next combat phase.
So far, the Ukrainians haven't used one of them to attack the Russian nation pre-2014 (though they may have used other means, e.g. that oil depot in Belgorod that keeps mysteriously blowing up)
Furthermore, operating without restrictions emphasises the point I made above about Ukraine being a genuinely independent nation.

Still be great to take out the Kerch bridge though!

School's Out...for ever!!



Russified school, that is.

Speaking of which.....

Daily summary:
As expected, no clear, verifiable, captures or decisive combats today.
About the best sign of what's happening is that the Russian media and proxies remained silent the entire day.

I think in the next few weeks the need for ATACMS missiles will disappear.

Not going to happen Fox. We have seen how brutal Putin can be with the attacks on Lviv, Odessa and Zap. Every time he has taken a loss or sees behaviour he is trying to discourage, Snake Island, Kiev, Kharkiv, he has gone back to pounding civilians and I see no change that will make him stop, in fact failure to kick him back will only make things worse. The Iraqi drones have very long range and we can expect them to be launched against many cities as Putin sees further losses.

Putin is reaching his critical point, collapse like a deflated balloon or spit like a trapped rattlesnake, and since he passed any logical consideration for Russia itself long ago we have a maniac defending his ego.

Re: my criticism of the unrealistic View from Moscow

I'm saying, it's not the same here as they think in Russia

Another teaser from the Zaporozhian area...
Pologi (aka Polohy) is on the road to Tokmak.