Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Boac]

From the Telegraph
"Russia's only aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov catches fire

Currently under repair, carrier which is due to return to action in a couple of months, has been beset by incidents and accidents."

[limeygal]

Good!

[Pontius Navigator]

In our club we had a WO off the Ark Royal, the one laid down during WW2, laid down in 1943 but not launched until 1950 and commissioned in 1955. She was strichen in 1979. 36 years from keel to scrap and 24 years in service.

In contrast Kuznetsov was laid down in 1982 and launched in 1985 and commissioned in 1991. Technically she is already 40 years old and in service 31 years.

Admittedly much of the Ark was built to wartime standards and frequently 'refitted' while under construction. We lived about a mile up hill from Csmel Lairds and it was said a worker, knocking off on a Friday night, could often find the route to his job changed as bulkheads were altered and hatches moved.

Never the less by RN standards she is well past her sell by date. I know the USN carriers can be much older, the Nimitz for instance was commissioned in 1975 but the US has the ability to keep them modernised.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Boing,
To my thinking, he's already lost face domestically by how long the war has gone on.
This is what the permitted 'opposition' commentators say.
If he blames the Poles, it validates his claim (with his domestic audience) that he has been up against NATO all along.
It also gives him carte blanche to increase mobilization, shift industry to war footings, etc.
Whether he takes specific action or not is not immediately important.

Kuznetsov.
The carrier has caught fire several times over the years, so we should not suppose this was due to anything other than an industrial accident.

[tango15]

Back in the 90's, I met a guy who had been a pilot on the Yak 38 Forger, which looked as much like a Harrier as was possible, but there the semblance ended. They were apparently trying to mimic the viffing movement used during the Falklands unpleasantness, whilst on manoeuvres in the Black Sea, Apparently they lost four aircraft in several days, principally because the two types of engines which were fitted to it simply weren't up to the job. The carrier returned to Sebastopol with a smaller complement of equipment than which it left.

[Pontius Navigator]

Tango, apparently a Forger from the Minsk made a successful interception in the Indian Ocean at 115 miles.

One day we pissed the Kiev off and she sent a Forger to chase us away. It did not go far from Mother, nevertheless Buchan scrambled an F4 for 'your protection'. We were about 400 miles west.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Weather in Ukraine
Svatove, in the North
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ua/14 ... from7day=1

Melitopol, in the South
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ua/14 ... /melitopol

I have had no direct evidence of conditions on the ground for a week since, but based on these forecasts I think the conditions in the north remain marginal, and those in the south remain muddy.
It may be 2-3 weeks before any assaults can start.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Someone in Plans has been at the Christmas Cheer a little early....

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russian civilian administration moved from Svatove to Luhansk.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/24/7382192/

This is a usual Russian precursor to an expected attack/loss of a settlement.
It is also notable because they've moved it to Luhansk, not the regional military centre at Starobilsk, which would be logical from an organisational point of view.
This may mean the Russians expect Starobilsk to come under attack.
A reminder that many, including me, think a Ukrainian assault aimed at either capturing or isolating both these cities may be coming soon.

[boing]

The humerous toss bombing idea must be loosely based on the old B47 toss bomb manoeuvre which was quite genuine. I have sat in the cockpit of a B47 which was actually fitted with a type of cross-wire flight director that directed the aircraft through the pull-up and roll out. I doubt the B47 was actually a very strong airframe. PN may have the facts but I think the Canberra also used this manoeuvre at some time, in this case it was not so much to extend the bomb's range but to get the aircraft out of the blast zone ASAP. Fortunately, with cruise missiles and the Rapid Dragon system the crew need not spill their coffee.

.

[PHXPhlyer]

Imagine doing an Immelmann turn in a 130 while shedding , according to Wikipedia, 16,250 kg (35,800 lb).

PP

[boing]

It is a certainty that the Ukrainians have a plan, or more likely several plans, that they can activate fairly quickly. They are certainly not telegraphing any punches. They are being very clever with the tiny dribble of information that is being released suggesting that their next attack could come from almost anywhere. The location of preparatory strikes, the tiny news articles showing activity in various areas, the push at several critical points on the front line, all very cleverly orchestrated to keep the Russians guessing. I would not be surprised to see initial advances on three or four fronts and we would not know which is the serious operation for several days.

.

[Pontius Navigator]

The humerous toss bombing idea must be loosely based on the old B47 toss bomb manoeuvre which was quite genuine. I have sat in the cockpit of a B47 which was actually fitted with a type of cross-wire flight director that directed the aircraft through the pull-up and roll out. I doubt the B47 was actually a very strong airframe. PN may have the facts but I think the Canberra also used this manoeuvre at some time, in this case it was not so much to extend the bomb's range but to get the aircraft out of the blast zone ASAP. Fortunately, with cruise missiles and the Rapid Dragon system the crew need not spill their coffee.

.

Only flew one sortie in a Canberra but they did indeed plan a LABS attack as did the B47. The purpose was to give the bomb sufficient altitude to function after a low level penetration.

The RAF weapon was Red Beard with a normal minimum release altitude of 27,000ft. In the Vs it was a 2D attack.

Once saw a Buccaneer do a practice LABS with a Red Beard shape. Watched with mouth open as it shot across the airfield at Cranwell before the pull up. Prior to that we only ever saw a Red Beard in the SSA or covered in a tarp.

I can't remember the g loading for a B47 over the shoulder but it was rather higher than a Vulcan limit.

[boing]

When were you at Sleaford Tech?

.

[Pontius Navigator]

When I was standing on the ORP, Exercise Unison, 1966.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Note the Russian

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

[boing]

Good, they are worried and dividing their resources. Building fortifications is not the action of a force preparing to attack. Watch Bakhmut in the next few days because the Russians are going to have to decide whether to continue the dumb attacks or fortify what they have gained so far. They have enough resources for one big push, Kiev, Kharkiv, Izyum/Lyman, Bakhmut, Donetsk but not all of them and reinforcing the main attack will leave other areas vulnerable.

Geometry is important here. Ukraine reserves are in the centre of a semi circle, their travel distance is the radius. Russians are outside the circumference and their travel time for reinforcements depends on the length of circumference involved. Now throw in the complication that they really need railway lines.

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

..indeed.
This is why my suggested Ukrainian attack axes concentrate on cutting key rail lines, specifically at Starobilsk and Tokmak.
And not only is the Russian command structure far less flexible, but the important Ukrainian precision strike artillery is very mobile, in addition to the interior lines of communication you point out..
They can pound somewhere for a couple of days, move overnight, and then pound the real main attack area pre-dawn the next day.