Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Russians have picked more deliveries from China this month so far than in the last 3 months combined.
I think it's worth speculating on this.
Firstly, this is in contrast to the Chinese banks apparently supporting western sanctions against Russia.
Xi wants to have his cake and eat it.
Second, what can the Chinese actually be supplying?
I'm guessing at winter equipment, and artillery ammo. China has a lot of both, and Russia appears to be almost out of both.
And most importantly, it's mostly deniable later.
Thirdly, the Chinese are making the Russians collect it, and it's being moved by air, not rail.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

More on Tokmak.


All of which is largely pointless.
The Ukes have already demonstrated the technique of cutting the supply routes to a Russian fortress, starving it of supplies then gradually using precision artillery and sudden attacks to 'crack the nut', Izyum for example.

[boing]

Fox,

Are they drawing in troops from other areas to help in Tokmak or are they just relying on fortifications?
If they are drawing in troops from other areas where are those troops coming from considering the options they have to move troops around?
Pulling them from the north of Donetsk not very convenient.
South from Zap., no point.
Pulling them from Melitopol tactically interesting.
Crimea, I don't think so.
Do they have reserves around Rostov?
Nova Kakhovka, sounds like a retreat.

Of course, we do have to remember that the Russians have a strange habit of building pointless defense system in retrospect whenever anyone pokes their bee hive.

Taking this move at face value and looking at the disposition of forces the Russians can only be imagining the push down from Zap. to Melitopol that everyone has been talking about.

I feel in my bones the hammer is shortly about to fall but it won't be on Tokmak.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Don't know.
But you raise all the pertinent questions - a fine summary.
I think the first push will not be on Tokmak, but that will be the important second push.
And I hope the Russians also think it won't be.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

More careless cigarette dropping at the Engels bomber base near Saratov, Russia, in the last hour
There were some indications today (Dec 25th) that the Russians were preparing for a major missile strike tomorrow.
The explosion(s) seem to be large, and timed at 0752 local Dec 26th

[Pontius Navigator]

Second, what can the Chinese actually be supplying?
......
And most importantly, it's mostly deniable later.
Thirdly, the Chinese are making the Russians collect it, and it's being moved by air, not rail.

As in most things are 'Made in China'.

Whilst they are using aircraft made in Ukraine.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Engels air base strike:

Russians are officially claiming a drone was shot down by air defence, but the debris killed 3 technical staff and damaged no aircraft.

Several reports indicate 2 explosions.

One report allegedly from locals says 8 personnel were killed by the damage to two strategic bombers, with drones firing missiles.

Another report says 5 bombers damaged, 2 slightly damaged, 17 dead, 26 wounded.

Take your pick.

We will probably have to wait quite a while for some satellite photos of what happened, as the weather for Engels is solid low cloud for the next week at least.

Next Russian missile attack, based on the recent schedule, would be 70+ missiles tomorrow (27th).

Some more possible detail here


Wild speculation by me is 2 Tu-141 drones, both impacting the flight line, with one bomber destroyed and 2 damaged (one severely), and 5-10 dead.
Speculation based on video explosion and rocket noises, one subsequent fire, and a SWAG at how much the Russians usually lie.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Reports from Kreminna that the Ukes have surrounded it on 3 sides. The Russians have apparently started mass looting, and the forced evacuation of civilians.
From what I can piece together, the main area of the city on the west bank of the Krasna River is now isolated from supply routes, as there are only 2 major and one minor crossings of the river (a bit like Kupyiansk).

Svatove is likewise dominated by high ground to the east, and divided by the Krasna River.
However, the high ground is not wooded (unlike Kreminna - the Ukes are particularly good at forest combat, it seems), and almost all the city is on the east bank of the river.

So, the Uke tactics at Kreminna are not likely to be so successful at Svatove.

[OFSO]

A slight thread drift. We walked to Bushy Park this morning as it's less than ten minutes away from the flat. There's a star set in the ground where Eisenhower had his HQ in WW-II. An American airforce base was located there. Not a trace left today, of course.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

minor oligarchs continue to fall out of windows...

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

But wait! There's more!



Christmas has always been a good time to bury bad news people

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Reported that Russia has transferred 4-6 Tu95s to the Far East - Ukrainka 51.16873924510896, 128.44523420517305

I would speculate that this won't affect Russian offensive ops much - these were likely ready-use spares that had been deployed forward for convenience, and will now only be deployed on need to reduce the number of targets at the Engels air base.

To the best of my knowledge, the only Tu-160 Blackjack squadron normally operates from Engels, so they are unlikely to be able to move these without compromising serviceability.
Any 'spare' Backfires would likely be moved to Olenegorsk, Murmansk, to be out of range of Uke Tu-141s

[Pontius Navigator]

The TU-95 has sufficient range to operate from Ukrainka at the expense of additional flight time. I once did a planning exercise, the Bear at Ukrainka could attack St Mawgan from the south west and recover to North Fleet.

[tango15]

My lady contact from Ukraine was finally able to leave Ukraine after borrowing enough from her BFFs to pay the bribe to the border guards. She is now in Warsaw, awaiting her UK visa. (The visa-issuing departments of the British embassy are no longer open, so it's necessary to go to a neighbouring country in order to get one). Apparently, there are still long queues at the border points, (the guards must be making a fortune), though the one she used, Krakovets, is the busiest because it's nearest to Rzezsov, which is the busiest town in Poland for transit to and from Ukraine.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

PN - you are a fount of knowledge, many thanks!

T15 - great that she's made it so far - is that both sets of guards that needed bribing, or what?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

More pointless, highly ineffective anyway, straight trenches around a settlement in Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia.


I am beginning to think this is simply busy-work, ordered by the officers to keep the men's minds off what's coming.
This would be the only 'purpose' I can think of.

[tango15]

PN - you are a fount of knowledge, many thanks!

T15 - great that she's made it so far - is that both sets of guards that needed bribing, or what?

No, the Polish side were friendly and helpful, apparently. |It was the Ukrainian side who were greedy.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Another one.


This appears to be more than just a score being settled. There may be some kind of power shift going on in Russia.

[Pontius Navigator]

PN - you are a fount of knowledge, many thanks!

T15 - great that she's made it so far - is that both sets of guards that needed bribing, or what?

No, the Polish side were friendly and helpful, apparently. |It was the Ukrainian side who were greedy.

Just twigged you used the same name on the other forum. Have you identified mine?

[Pontius Navigator]

PN - you are a fount of knowledge, many thanks!

T15 - great that she's made it so far - is that both sets of guards that needed bribing, or what?

We also did some calculations on Backfire and Badgers too. The GIntO at the time was a Wally but subsequent deployments proved we (SIntO and my colleague the SEWO) were probably correct.

At one time I told him that one of the data books had a position error for Starokonstantinov. He asked how I knew but I could not tell him