Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Dushan]

putin finishes his election pitch by again denying he has body doubles, and launching 6 Kinzhal missiles at Ukraine.

He proved it by personally doing the 6 launches simultaneously.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

More on Russian airfields.

There was a Ukrainian drone strike on Morozovsk airfield, about 180 miles east of the front line near Luhansk.
The targets appear to be bomb-carrying Su-24s and Su-34s.
Russia claims all drones were shot down.
35 in total were claimed on strikes on at least three airfields yesterday.

Certainly appears to be some damage here.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111595435979347494

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Reports of combat on Russian territory last night, Belgorod Oblast.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/17/7433458/
Fits the usual M.O.
Terebreno is just over a mile over the border from Ukraine, there is only forest between the border and the Russian settlement, and the forest has multiple entry/exit points.
No indication of who, or confirmation of damage yet.
I would guess it will be attributed to Russian anti-putin forces again, and the local police station/army HQ will have been damaged or destroyed.
This village is about 65 miles west of Shebekino, which was the town attacked by the Freedom of Russia Legion/Russian Volunteer Corps/Belarussian Terror Battalion/Judean People's Front( ) back in May.
Naturally the Ukes will "Deny Everything, Baldrick!"

[tango15]

I was chatting by keyboard to one of my contacts in Lviv last night. She was saying that the Ukes are no longer welcome in Poland and that they will not admit them through the usual border points. It seems that a few Ukes who have fled to Poland have caused some problems, and the Poles have used this as an excuse to close the border. One of the other borders is with Hungary, and Orban is one of Putin's poodles, so good luck with trying to get through there!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The situation on the Left Bank continues to deteriorate for the Russians.
The Ukrainian UAVs are hitting targets along a much broader front than the troops occupy, and longer range UAVs are now striking beyond the Oleshky Sands area.
This may not be all good news, as the Ukes are known to be short of artillery ammo, especially the ex-Russian calibres which they are likely concentrating in areas other than Zaporozhzhia and Donetsk.
The Russians are having to bring in heavier weapons, like T-80s and TOS-1As, but the Ukes are knocking them down.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111620674403561719

I have noted several strikes on Russian surveillance systems outside the areas currently occupied by Uke troops. I don't know whether this is a precursor to further Uke raids, or just that they want the Russians to stretch their troops even thinner in case of such. I expect the Ukes will do at least a couple more SF nuisance raids to add validity to the threat.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukes are claiming to have shot down three Su-34s in southern Kherson this morning.
The kills appear to be in the Chaplinka area.
My guess this is a repeat of the trick that was successful on May 13th in the NE. They have shifted a Patriot battery overnight right up to the front line on the right bank of the Dnipro, and hit Russian aircraft that thought they were in a safe zone.
The distance from the line of contact is similar to May, about 40 miles.
SAMP/T is also a possible Uke system used, if they have the Aster 30 missile (unknown by me if they do)
Russian official sources have acknowledged one loss, cause not given.
Russian media isn't mentioning the incidents at all.
Photos are available of one crash site showing a rescue helicopter, and a parachute and harness with blood on the oxygen mask. Russian sources state the crew survived this one.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111624213616257485
Unofficial Russian sources have just changed "loss" to "losses" on their blogs.

The Russians had significantly increased the use of aircraft for bombing missions on the Left Bank, presumably to avoid having to transfer many artillery systems from Zaporozhzhia.
This will give them pause.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Mission accomplished.

"After the downing of three Su-34s, the Russians suspended the use of tactical aircraft and guided air bombs,"

spokeswoman for the Operational Command center South, Nataliya Humenyuk said.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111634877748982753

"F-16 in connection with Patriot will be able to strike at Russian jets without entering the zone covered by Russian air defense," aviation expert Bohdan Dolyntse said.
"If Russian jets try to overtake/intercept the F-16, a Patriot or SAMP-T will effectively land it," he adds.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111634597630823953

Which means, I think, that Ukrainian F-16s with AMRAAM can shootdown Russian Ground Attack aircraft attempting to attack the front line.
Any Russian AD aircraft attempting to take out the F-16s would themselves be intercepted by Uke SAMs before getting into the No Escape Zone for their AA-13s
One presumes this applies to Russian Ground Attack aircraft at standoff range for their glide bombs.
I don't have current missile envelopes, so can't confirm, but it sounds reasonable.

Such AD ops would of course be greatly assisted by the Ukes getting access to NATO AWACS downlinks in real time, if that were 'available'. In turn, this would be a huge escalation if proven.
Two very big 'IF's.
I expect the Ukes would 'somehow' manage to hack the AWACS downlink, despite NATO's 'best efforts' at encryption.

Today's Sesame Street was brought to you by the numbers -104 and -120, and the words Plausible Deniability

[Boac]

Apparently a SU30 down as well, and reported as 'well outside ground AD assets'. Noting the recent multiple SU34 hits and this, I wonder if Santa had a few early pressies in his sack? Bring it on!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Yes, the SU-30 was reportedly about to launch a missile against Odesa. No exact position, but there is the possibility, from one report, that Snake Island has some medium range AD.
Also, another Su-34 downed near Mariupol yesterday.
Assorted Russian Air Force Generals will be wondering whether it's Polonium Pudding or a long walk off a short apartment balcony for Christmas.

I'd be very interested in what naval assets the Russians currently have in the western Black Sea, given they have moved their main base back to Novorossiysk from Sevastopol. It might just be b#gger all.

The Russians, of course, balanced the Su-34 losses by shooting down 6 Uke F-16s yesterday. Which is an awesome capability, since they are still in their hangers in Holland and Denmark

[Boac]

Makes you wonder?: From the BBC - mis-reporting?

"Russia has confirmed that one of its warships has been damaged in the Black Sea during an attack by Ukraine.

The strike took place in the port of Feodosiya in Russian-occupied Crimea overnight on Monday.

The Ministry of Defence said the large landing ship Novocherkassk was struck by Ukrainian aircraft carrying guided missiles."

Feodosiya is well to the east in southern Crimea.

[tango15]

It's some years now since I was last in Novorossiysk, but unless the port area has been significantly extended, there would not be much room for naval vessels. It is of course a principal oil port and one of the few warm-water ports Russia possesses, so it's also used for other types of cargo. There were various large vessels anchored off the port whenever I passed, so I imagine it must be busy all the time.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Special offer!: Pieces of the Novocherkassk can now be collected from a local supermarket!
Buy Two, Get One Free

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... on-crimea/

Reports that the landing ship in Feodosia harbour was loaded with Shahed drones when it went bang.
The pieces would appear to be over a third of a mile away.

Naturally the Russians have claimed the ship was only damaged, and both Uke launch aircraft were destroyed.
As Jim Royle would say "My Ar$e!"

How's this for "damaged"?

395b13d-novocherkassk690.jpg (104.42 KiB) Viewed 1268 times

Exploded, burned out, and sunk would appear to be more accurate.

Location of wreck appears to be here
https://www.google.com/maps/place/45%C2 ... ?entry=ttu
This is a loading dock for rail transfer of cargo.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

[PHXPhlyer]

Ukraine claims it destroyed Russian tank landing ship

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/26/europe/u ... index.html

Ukraine claimed on Tuesday to have carried out an airstrike in Crimea that destroyed a Russian Navy tank landing ship in what would be, if confirmed, the third instance of major losses of Russian military hardware in less than a week.

In a post on Telegram, Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk thanked personnel involved in “the destruction of the Novocherkask large landing ship” while it was in the port of Feodosia in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.

CNN cannot independently verify the claim, but videos posted on social media showed large explosions in the Feodosia port.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the Novocherkask had been “damaged” in a Ukrainian attack in a statement reported by the state-run TASS news agency.

The Russia-appointed head of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, earlier acknowledged via a statement that there had been “an enemy attack in [the] Feodosia area,” adding that “detonation has stopped and the fire has been localized.”

One person was killed and two injured in the Ukrainian strikes, Aksyonov said in an update on Telegram, though he did not mention the Novocherkask.


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated his military Tuesday for striking the Russian warship.

“I am grateful to our Air Force for the spectacular replenishment of the Russian Black Sea submarine fleet with another vessel. There will be no peaceful place for the occupiers in Ukraine,” Zelensky said in a statement.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu “reported to [President Vladimir Putin] about the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ attack on Feodosia and the damage to the large landing ship Novocherkask,” a statement released by the Kremlin said Tuesday.

According to a US military fact sheet on the Novocherkask and the other vessels in its Ropucha class, the 369-foot (112.5-meter) vessel displaces about 3,450 tons, making about the same size as a US Navy littoral combat ship.

The Novocherkask carries a crew of around 87 with capacity for 237 troops, according to the US military. It was not known how many personnel may have been aboard in the alleged Ukrainian attack.

The ship is designed for beach landings with bow and stern doors and the ability to accommodate up to 25 armored personnel carriers on its vehicle deck.

Oleshchuk, the Ukrainian commander, said the vessel had been carrying Iran-made Shahed attack drones.

He said the Novocherkask had “followed” the Moskva, the guided-missile cruiser that was the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet before it sank in April 2022 after being struck by Ukrainian missiles.

Ukraine also claimed in September that the Novocherkask’s sister ship, the Minsk, had been destroyed in an attack on the Sevastopol naval base in Crimea.

The British Defense Ministry reported that an analysis of open-source intelligence found the Minsk was “almost certainly functionally destroyed” and the Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don also suffered catastrophic damage in that attack.

If the destruction of the Novocherkask is confirmed, it could be the third instance in the past week of the Russian military suffering losses of important hardware in combat, according to Ukrainian claims.

On Christmas Eve, the Ukrainian Air Force said it destroyed an Su-24 fighter jet in the eastern Donetsk region and an Su-30SM fighter jet over the Black Sea.

And on Friday, Zelensky said the country’s forces had downed three Russian Su-34 warplanes.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat told Ukrainian media on Friday that Su-34 jets “are one of the newest aircraft” in service with the Russian army and are used to carry out aerial bomb and missile strikes.

According to Ihnat, each aircraft can cost “at least $50 million.”

CNN has not been able to confirm the Russian aircraft losses.

But they would be welcome successes for Ukraine after a period when the almost two-year-old war has not been going Kyiv’s way.

“The most useful headline for Kyiv should be how unutterably bleak the frontlines are for them now. In nearly every direction, the news is grim,” CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh reported on December 17.

Walsh noted Ukraine was facing stepped up Russian attacks from the air and on the ground while international support for its war effort was flagging, including Zelensky’s failure to convince the US Congress to continue funding military hardware past the end of the year while on a visit to Washington.

Shoigu, in his final conference call of the year on Tuesday, declared what he claimed was the successful completion of the main objective for Russia’s war effort in 2023, emphasizing what he considered the disruption of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military has requested 500,000 additional troops, David Arakhamia, leader of the parliamentary majority said via Telegram on Monday.

The government is drafting a bill on mobilization of troops to address the question of troop recruitment, he added.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Russians now claim to have occupied Mari'inka

This is Mari'inka now

Since empires have been written about, over 11,000 years, it makes no sense to occupy somewhere which is economically useless unless it has strategic military value.
Mari'inka now has neither.

This is true of everywhere Russia has occupied in Ukraine.

Russia has lost this war. It lost it as soon as the retreat from Kyiv was forced.
Even if the Ukrainians lose all international support, they will keep fighting down to their knives and bare hands, because Russia has already shown that genocide is the only option.
Of course, without support, the war will last 10 years and a lot more Ukrainians will die, like Afghanistan, but the Russians will lose, because Ukraine will be a drain, not an asset.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I note that CNN has not updated the report PHX posted, despite the evidence of the ship being a smoking, sunked wreck at the bottom of the harbour.
This is not even reporting, still less journalism.
Either CNN is working for the Russians, or they completely incompetent.

Or, as one often finds these days, both.

[Dushan]

Oops there goes another one!

The body of yet another Vladimir Putin ally has been found following a suspected fall from a third-floor window.

Putin crony found dead in yet another mystery fall from window

[PHXPhlyer]

Satellite images show Russian navy ship burning after Ukrainian strike in Crime

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/28/europe/n ... index.html

Satellite images have revealed severe damage caused to the Russian tank landing ship Novocherkassk following Ukrainian strikes on a port in Crimea on Tuesday.

In images taken by Maxar, the ship can be seen burnt out and detached from the port, seemingly partially submerged, with smoke billowing from the vessel.

Ukraine claimed to have destroyed the ship in its attack on the port of Feodosia in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. Moscow claimed the ship had been “damaged.”

The image, when compared with a previous image showing the ship before the strike, suggests a successful Ukrainian operation targeting the port.

The image taken after the strike appears to show the Novocherkassk landing ship billowing with smoke and partially submerged.

An image before the attack, for comparison, shows the Novocherkassk intact.

The number of those who may have been killed in the strike may become more clear over time as the peninsula is currently under Russian control, a Ukrainian Navy spokesperson said Wednesday.

“This territory, unfortunately, is occupied now, and it’s not an easy thing to do the relevant intelligence. And I think that over time, we will get at least approximate figures [of casualties] of what happened in reality,” Ukrainian Navy Spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

“Nevertheless, these ships are usually not left without a crew. And, accordingly, even though it was in port at the time, a fairly large part of the crew had to be on board, and the total crew there is about 80 people,” he said.

According to a US military fact sheet on the Novocherkassk and the other vessels in its Ropucha class, the 369-foot (112.5-meter) vessel displaces about 3,450 tons, making about the same size as a US Navy littoral combat ship.

The Novocherkassk carries a crew of around 87 with capacity for 237 troops, according to the US military. It was not known how many personnel may have been aboard in the alleged Ukrainian attack.

The ship is designed for beach landings with bow and stern doors and the ability to accommodate up to 25 armored personnel carriers on its vehicle deck.

Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk, who said in a Telegram post after the attack that the ship had been destroyed, also claimed the vessel had been carrying Iran-made Shahed attack drones.

He said the Novocherkassk had “followed” the Moskva, the guided-missile cruiser that was the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet before it sank in April 2022 after being struck by Ukrainian missiles.


The Russian Defense Ministry meanwhile said the Novocherkassk had been “damaged” in a Ukrainian attack in a statement reported by the state-run TASS news agency.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reported the strike and the damage to Novocherkask to President Vladimir Putin, according to TASS, quoting Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

In an update on Wednesday, the Crimea Health Ministry said that one person died and four were injured as a result of the attack, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

CNN is not able to independently verify the claims by either side but videos posted on social media showed large explosions in the Feodosia port.

If confirmed, the Novocherkask alleged destruction would be the third instance of major losses of Russian military hardware in less than a week. In September, Ukraine also claimed that the Novocherkask’s sister ship, the Minsk, had been destroyed in an attack on the Sevastopol naval base in Crimea.

The strike comes as Ukrainian encounters difficulties in its ground campaign in the country’s east.

Ukraine’s top general Valery Zaluzhnyi warned on Tuesday that the city of Avdiivka could suffer the same fate as the decimated city of Bakhmut in the next two to three months, while Ukrainian forces have “now withdrawn to the outskirts” of the village of Marinka after fighting with Russian troops.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

CNN is not able to independently verify the claims by either side but videos posted on social media showed large explosions in the Feodosia port.

"Independently verify" has become an utterly useless phrase with the MSM. I presume they are only going to accept an admission by the Russians, or a personal tour of the wreck.

That's a dead boat, and one doesn't need a degree in marine engineering to see it.

Big missile strike on Ukraine last night, 108-122 reported (sources differ).
No Kalibrs used, so presumably no naval contribution to the mayhem, but all the other main sorts, mostly Kh-101 / 555 (90).
Difficult to be sure of the targeting, as about 87 were shot down, but it was definitely targets within major cities.
The inaccurate ones, like AS-4 Kitchens and S-300 SAMs in Ground Attack mode, took out the usual selection of liquor stores and maternity hospitals.
27 out of 36 Shahed drones shot down also.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

This war is really accelerating the development of UAVs, and countermeasures to them.

The Russians have developed a short-range radar specifically aimed at detecting UAVs.
It gets found by a suicide drone.


Man-portable anti-UAV jammers, operating with a variety of mechanisms, are appearing on both sides.
Here, a Russian discovers that his doesn't work.
This one might be a bit upsetting. He gets injured and his mates take him into a building. A second drone then dives into the building to take the whole party out.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111658658455563187