BREXIT - A Poll & Discussion

[G-CPTN]

A General Election looks strongly on the cards. Some need to face the very hard facts. There is some very wishful thinking about.

I agree (that it's on the cards) though MPs are unlikely to vote for Christmas (as turkeys).
Current parties are likely to receive little support, but who will 'win'?
I don't see any party getting any sort of majority capable of 'governing'.

[Capetonian]

What does the result mean? - VERY LITTLE TO THE UK
What impact do MEPs have on our membership of the EU? - DITTO
What effect is the result likely to have on the UK parliament? - DITTO
Does the UK parliament have any obligation to take any notice of EU elections? I WOULD IMAGINE SO, BUT THAT'S LIMITED IN EFFECT

What is likely to happen in a subsequent general election? - THAT IS THE CRITICAL PART.

I do not believe that most people know what they voted for in the MEP elections, hence my answers above. They simply saw it as an opportunity to vote against a party that has betrayed them, and another whose policies they see as harmful and destructive.

A low turn-out indicates that many people didn't care, or felt their vote would not matter, but of those who did vote, they voted against the mainstream parties. Given that 'none of these' was not an option, they voted for anyone other than the mainstream parties.

The same pattern is likely, although with less extreme results, to be seen in a general election, unless there are some drastic changes in policy and leadership of both main parties.

[Krystal n Chips]

The bitter bile of the loser.

An area in which you have well developed and promoted expertise ...which is a back handed compliment if you think about it.....not that you will.

That said, Nige having swept to glory, all he has to do now is transmogrify the rhetoric in order to appease those who voted for the party into tangible policies.

This is where it may become problematic however because thus far we don't actually know what these policies are. Once we do, a more detailed scrutiny will be possible and thereafter, the failings will be revealed.

Labour will doubles take a long, cold and hard look at the result and certainly with the support for a second referendum. The Tories are too besieged with their own version of fratricide so whatever they say, or propose, let alone attempt to implement is unlikely to revive the party.......for which we can all be eternally grateful. Bit difficult to regurgitate that good old refrain "it's all Labours fault !" this time.....chaps .

[G-CPTN]

Thank-you for a thoughtful response.

[Pontius Navigator]

What Farage said was very true. If the Conservatives want Brexit they must work with the Brexit Party in the EUP. Without a leader they risk losing 2 months of negotiation.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I agree with all that, and I think how the two major parties respond is worth looking at further.

The Tories made zero attempt at a campaign. They knew they wouldn't gain a single floating voter, and they now know how many of their supporters they have lost over the failure to deliver Brexit. This is their worst result ever, and the Party will be dead if they don't do something. However, what are the individual MPs willing to do? Most of them are Remainers. May's deal wasn't even Brexit, and they failed to get that through. If they push anything more remain, like for a second referendum, then they are all out of a job. And with a FPTP GE, I do mean quite possibly all of them. Take Windsor & Maidenhead - 33% Brexit, 31% LD, 13% Con. The Tories did not come top in a single council area, not one out of 371 so far declared. It boils down to what each current Conservative MP has lined up after the next GE. If they have a nice job, they'll stick with being Remainers.
Labour have suffered a serious defeat. They have a fundamental problem in that most of their MPs are Remainers also, but Corbyn is anti-EU. Can they get rid of him? The commies like McDonnell would love to, and they can convince themselves that they'd keep almost all their support. They wouldn't, but they can convince themselves of anything. Labour MPs, by and large, won't have anything as cushy as the Tory MPs lined up if they get kicked out, so a lot boils down to what will keep each MP in office at a GE. Take a look at the detailed council results.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48 ... ting-story
Outside London, only about 8 council areas had Labour in first place, and mostly only by a couple of percent. Some MPs will convince themselves they can win the LD voters back if they go full Remain. Personally, I think they're barking, but it's what they think that matters. But, most will have to back Corbyn if they want to keep their jobs. Corbyn wants a GE, and he can practically taste it. The last thing he's going to do is change Labour's official (non) position before the GE is called. He will continue to ensure the Government can do nothing effective, and call for No Confidence votes whenever there's a chance. What appears in their election manifesto is another question, as is whether Labour win it. And even if they don't, having the Tories destroyed will be a win. Remember that Corbyn is playing a long game. He hasn't changed his views (or his trousers) for 40 years.

[Woody]

In Hillingdon, the Tory vote collapsed and they came 4th, could Bojo lose his seat in a GE

[Pontius Navigator]

In Hillingdon, the Tory vote collapsed and they came 4th, could Bojo lose his seat in a GE

It is rare for a big gun to lose his seat. That is why Ed Balls was so surprised.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

It used to be rare. It's certainly becoming a lot more common over here. The Premier lost his seat at the recent Provincial election, and he hasn't been the only Premier or ruling cabinet member to be dumped in Canada in the last couple of years. And that's with them putting in a lot of time in their own ridings (constituencies).

[G-CPTN]

I wonder if any newly-elected MEPs weren't expecting to be elected, and realise that they don't want to leave their current employment?
Won't they be ' personae non gratae' after we 'leave' (in October?)?
Would they be disqualified if they failed to turn up in Strasbourg or Brussels?

Isn't the point of the Brexit vote that they don't want anything to do with the EU?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

There are only 3 actual weeks of the EU Parliament sitting between now and October, and that's only Mon pm-Thu. They could just take their holiday and go, and even then they just need to sign the register then they can bunk off.
A recent GE in Canada had a young female who'd signed up as a candidate mostly for a laugh, but was a member of a party on a sudden wave of support. She had a holiday in Vegas booked when the election was called. She still went on holiday. She still got elected. And as follow up, she and her other wtf? unexpectedly elected MPs all did OK as constituency MPs by most reports.

I think Canada is partly relevant here. Parties, even big ones, dying completely is not unknown here, and a straight lie to the electorate may get you dumped. Or it may not; depends what the lie is.

[AtomKraft]

The **** hole the Tories have dug for themselves, just became a lot deeper and the sides steeper and slippier. Climbing out will soon be impossible.

Labour, never the quickest on the uptake, still don't realise that keeping their position on 'in or out' a secret, will just result in them being out...of power.

The idiot Lib Dems are probably convinced they're making a comeback- but they aren't.

The day has gone to Nigel Farage and his BrExit party. If nothing changes, the next GE will be his too.

I'm a supporter of BrExit, but if there's one thing we need even more urgently, it's change. A monumental shake up is long overdue.

Hopefully this Euro election is the first big tremor in the forthcoming earthquake and Tsunami that will sweep this shower of twats down the ****.

It might even be possible to return to the UK at some point....five or ten years from now.

[G-CPTN]

Take a step back from Brexit (if that is possible).
Apart from the mess surrounding our withdrawal from the EU, what policies do the major (and minor) parties have that would attract/detract voters were a general election called before Christmas?
Will the MPs ensure that there is no GE to protect their current seats?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Many MPs can only avoid losing their seats by avoiding an election. Whatever most of them say in public, I think most of them are good enough politicians to realise that. The Tory party is well past its last warning from the electorate, and it's just had it from its own party membership, especially the activists. The latter means, I think, that Boris will end up as PM. The Parliamentary party can no longer exclude him from the 2 offered to the party membership, and they'll pick him. However, his drive for Brexit means MPs will be between Scylla and Charibdis. Every thing they do to delay it will damage them with the electorate, and if they don't delay, Brexit happens. Furthermore, the delay and confusion increases the risk of a Vote of No Confidence succeeding, as Jezza is desperate for a GE.

Worth pointing out that there are a Government estimated 2.27 million EU workers who were eligible to vote in the UK at the EU election. I would suggest it's highly likely that the Lib Dems got their vote. If they had the same turnout as everyone else (have no idea if they did, but just for a reference point), then there were 830,000 EU worker votes in with the others. I suspect the demographics of the vote breakdown will be worth looking at.

[AtomKraft]

The Tory party are going to deliver BrExit, promptly on 31 Oct.

They will do so for the best possible reason, which is to save their own skins.

Whether it will be enough remains to be seen, but as they are completely 'Donald Ducked" if they don't- and boy, do they know it now, I'm sure it will happen.

[om15]

The Brexit Party seem to have achieved their first objective, I watched a short clip earlier with Nigel on some breakfast show, the smirking inquisitor asked what next as Nigel has no manifesto published, quick as a flash the answer was there, help the five million self employed and sole traders more, get ride of the House of Lords, change the two party system, there was no messing about, also the BBC will be disbanded as well.

Meanwhile the next stage is underway, let's see how this goes

[Sisemen]

For those advocating a second referendum I would suggest a close study of the EU election results. If you have a 2nd ref then you’re going to lose again. Have you got a Plan C or is it the ‘best of 5’?

[Capetonian]

A second referendum, regardless of the result it might produce, would be a contemptible betrayal of democracy.

[G-CPTN]

A second referendum, regardless of the result it might produce, would be a contemptible betrayal of democracy.

So when are we going to get one?

It would seem to be the logical extension of the current policy.

Or as Monty Python would say:- "And now for something completely different!"

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Any plan for a second referendum is going to lose everyone who voted Leave at the referendum, exclusively to TBP, that is pretty clear from these results. Both Labour and the Tories have just seen what this will do to their support. There is no guarantee that Remain voters who were previously Labour or Tory will stick with their party if it changes to promoting a second referendum. If anything, the Lib Dems are on a roll. In any case, the Remain vote will end up split 3 ways in a GE which would effectively be a second referendum. TBP will end up with a majority in Parliament.
Remember that Brexit was in a 2/3 majority if the Referendum result is considered on a constituency basis, and was the largest party in 9/10 of the English and Welsh regions in the EU elections - everywhere except London.
A Second Referendum pledge by Labour or Conservatives will result in a TBP majority government. It may, however, save some MPs their seats if they are in a Remain majority constituency. It is going to be very hard to work out exactly what each individual MP is actually after, and the last thing one can use to judge that is what comes out of their mouths. Frankly, I think both main parties are too riven both within themselves and from their electorate to survive a GE with any hope of being in majority government.

UPDATE: Just discovered this extensive polling by Lord Ashcroft about who voted for whom in the EU elections, why, and what they may do at the next GE.
It would seem to fit with my above assessments.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/05/m ... new-party/