Climate Disruption.

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Fox3WheresMyBanana
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Re: Climate Disruption.

#501 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:19 pm

Well, what do they conclude? The failure of AGW predictions of increased hurricane numbers and strengths is one of AGW's bigger weak points.
If there's any trend at all, it's downwards, e.g.
https://www.casact.org/pubs/forum/18spf ... ollins.pdf
As to the flooding risk they are particularly concerned about, that's far more a product of terrible government land use planning than anything else. Take Canada for example, huge flooding a couple of years back in High River, AB - why the f#ck do you think the original settlers called it High River?? What kind of idiot government allows residential development next to the river in High River?? Well, they don't now. That is, they compensated the residents that time, but said they wouldn't if they rebuilt in the same place. I don't think anyone has.
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Re: Climate Disruption.

#502 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:33 pm

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:19 pm
Well, what do they conclude? The failure of AGW predictions of increased hurricane numbers and strengths is one of AGW's bigger weak points.
If there's any trend at all, it's downwards, e.g.
https://www.casact.org/pubs/forum/18spf ... ollins.pdf
As to the flooding risk they are particularly concerned about, that's far more a product of terrible government land use planning than anything else. Take Canada for example, huge flooding a couple of years back in High River, AB - why the f#ck do you think the original settlers called it High River?? What kind of idiot government allows residential development next to the river in High River?? Well, they don't now. That is, they compensated the residents that time, but said they wouldn't if they rebuilt in the same place. I don't think anyone has.
They certainly would agree with your mutli-causal/dimensional approach and would want to known how to weigh the relative risks accordingly based upon known history, historical data, current data and projections based upon the best knowledge and science available. Knowledge (even incomplete knowledge) is a powerful tool and allows long term financial and cover allocation strategies to be formulated. The science/art (a black one in many cases) of long term forecasting across such long periods (up to 40 years ahead in the RE business) over so many disciplines is an incomplete one but you have to start somewhere and 'genuine science' is definitely the place to start at.
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Fox3WheresMyBanana
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Re: Climate Disruption.

#503 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:39 pm

As I say, in the near term, there's precious little difference between anything either camp would predict, and if anything the record since the IPCC started making predictions is that the AGW theory doesn't work. The point I made a while back is that there are huge forces at work on the climate that we do not have more than a bunch of disjointed hypotheses for. It is not that difficult to do post hoc scientific explanations for what happened. It's basically impossible to do good long term predictions. Take NASAs prediction for the current solar cycle (which is the biggest influence on climate). They were completely wrong, and the cycle was half the size. What happened next tells you all you need to know about US Government institutions. They issued another one partway through the cycle (which is a bit like predicting Man United will beat Accrington Stanley when Man U are 7-0 up at half time), and quietly scrubbed all references to the original from the internet. You can, however, still find older predictions which turned out to be right. That's fraud, scientifically-speaking.

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#504 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:42 pm

I see our posts crossed... I agree with your last post. See additions made in my last post above.
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Re: Climate Disruption.

#505 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:44 pm

Ditto

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#506 Post by BenThere » Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:22 pm

It is not that difficult to do post hoc scientific explanations for what happened. It's basically impossible to do good long term predictions.
I think a good strategy is to ascertain the general predictions of the consensus among climate change/global warming fanatics and figure out a way to effectively bet against them. For example, if Al Gore says The Bahamas are going to be underwater in 2030, and that opinion gains acceptance, driving down real estate values, you should look at buying land in The Bahamas.

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#507 Post by AtomKraft » Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:27 pm

AGW/ Global warming/ Climate Change is just the latest boogieman from which only Government, can save us.

It replaced the Cold War..... from which only Government could .....save us.

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#508 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Nov 19, 2019 9:10 pm

I think terrorism is still around somewhere, also obesity, Health & Safety, plus every -ism you can think of. In fact, don't bother with the thinking, the Government will do that for you. And of course the modern education system saves you all that bother of being taught how to think ;)))

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#509 Post by Slasher » Wed Nov 20, 2019 4:30 am

For example, if Al Gore says The Bahamas are going to be underwater in 2030, and that opinion gains acceptance, driving down real estate values, you should look at buying land in The Bahamas.

If you look at Singapore asxanother example you can go into a 30 year loan to buy private or commercial lots. All banks everywhere know this AGW “The sky is falling!” is a just a load of propaganda crocsh!t.

A little humour break...

DCF68BED-FEB7-4722-B81E-31DE1F0729E9.jpeg
Judging from the girl’s tattoo on the right I’d say her snatch is already well and truly destroyed and unfit for male appendage occupation. The slut on the left at least has respectable breastery.

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#510 Post by Rwy in Sight » Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:11 am

It goes without saying I first saw the breastery and then the other girl and her tatoo. Happy Birthday Slasher!

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#511 Post by OFSO » Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:15 am

Yes, Auspicious Greetings Mr S. No idea what the lady on the right has against cats, but it takes all sorts !

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#512 Post by Rwy in Sight » Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:12 am

OFSO wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:15 am
Yes, Auspicious Greetings Mr S. No idea what the lady on the right has against cats, but it takes all sorts !
Maybe her cat is being ignored for a long time. Yet again if some one attempts to change that she would complain if not handsome and rich.

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#513 Post by ian16th » Wed Nov 20, 2019 10:21 am

TheGreenGoblin wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:09 pm
Having irritated the cook/chef during basics I learned quickly that everybody has a critical role to play
I said before, when one comes off shift wet and cold, at O Dark Thirty, on February morning, the most important guy on the base was the Duty Cook!
Cynicism improves with age

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#514 Post by Rwy in Sight » Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:23 pm

I understand more than you think. Came off a very early guard duty and returned to the GCA facility in the field only to find there was a power cut (partially due to a dog owned by a controller) and not able to have my second cup of coffee.

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#515 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:34 pm

Rwy in Sight wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:23 pm
I understand more than you think. Came off a very early guard duty and returned to the GCA facility in the field only to find there was a power cut (partially due to a dog owned by a controller) and not able to have my second cup of coffee.
Exactly, when one is cold, tired and disconsolate that cup of coffee full of powdered or (preferably) condensed milk is sheer bliss and not being able to have same is a major calamity. ;)))
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Your destination remains
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Re: Climate Disruption.

#516 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:37 pm

Rwy in Sight wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:12 am
OFSO wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:15 am
Yes, Auspicious Greetings Mr S. No idea what the lady on the right has against cats, but it takes all sorts !
Maybe her cat is being ignored for a long time. Yet again if some one attempts to change that she would complain if not handsome and rich.
All bringing Mrs Slocombe's pussy to mind...

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Your destination remains
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Re: Climate Disruption.

#517 Post by BenThere » Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:57 pm

Back when I was an overnight freight captain flying aged DC-8s, I always maintained I would rather fly with a deferred(inoperative) generator or even an engine than depart without a working coffee maker. Trying to fly overnight, 5 nights in a row, without coffee is inconceivable to me - it can't be done by anyone but a Mormon.

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#518 Post by Mrs Ex-Ascot » Mon Nov 25, 2019 6:35 am

Now I know that this is from the DM, but it does give some food for thought; https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -1966.html :-?
RAF 32 Sqn B Flt ; Twin Squirrels.

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#519 Post by Slasher » Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:11 am

TheGreenGoblin wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:37 pm
All bringing Mrs Slocombe's pussy to mind...
Y’know Gob...Mrs S always raved about her pussy but we never ever got to see it did we. Maybe a good thing we didn’t. All that amount of time she spent feeding and stroking it would’ve made it fat and ugly. :-q

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Re: Climate Disruption.

#520 Post by OFSO » Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:28 am

My mum met her once in Debenhams, very appropriate. Said Molly Sugden was in character as Mrs S. Or did she just play herself ? Bet BBC wouldn't repeat the program. Young sexy lady & gay sales assistant ? Sharp intake of breath, non PC stereotypes.

Thread drift, nothing to do with climate disruption and all the better for it.

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