Climate Disruption.

[k3k3]

Many thanks to those who spend ages teaching me about all manner of things. Thanks to all those who are massively generous with their knowledge and time.

I become more and more convinced that I have much in common with a bear of very little brain.

But I am enjoying having that brain exercised.

[bob2s]

Calling each other idiot and not allowing your opponent to have an opinion on climate change is pretty much useless,even those of the scientific mind variety
can not agree that the climate is changing at the rate they envisage.The IPCC has often been called out for some of it's reports.Perhaps if the scientific mob were to actually sit down with one another and use proper scientific methods and got rid of their personal beliefs, and suppositions,and thrash out the true/not true answer to the climate changing/not changing, then the world may be able to prepare,one way or another.
I don't intend to hold my breath waiting for this!!!

[Slasher]

Thank you for posts 645 675 and 678 Plum.

With your permission I wish to copy/screenshot those 3 relevant posts thus far, for discussions with a coupla intelligent climate boffins I know back home.

Look forward to your next installment. Thanks indeed for your time and effort.

[Sisemen]

An excellent piece Plum! One of the things that I got from that is the historical impreciseness of the methodology. I therefore come back to the question I posed earlier - why does there appear to be a mismatch between the “science” and actual observable data?

The comment made by bob2s is very apposite - the scare stories pushed out by “science” rarely pan out in actuality and, perhaps if science got its act together and got back to the basic requirement of science - that everything must be questioned until totally incontrovertible, replicated and observable facts are known and that up to that point it is merely a theory. And even then science should not regard it as the final position.

[barkingmad]

This weekend 8 & 9 Feb we in the UK are about to be treated to a possible manifestation of the increased water vapour content of the upper and lower atmospheres.

Wood & coal stocked up, just hope the power outages don’t exceed the freezer “no-power” specification?

[Sisemen]

Nah, that's not a storm. THIS is a storm!

[Slasher]

Regular event for Exmouth and the Hedland in Summer mate. Let me know if something unusual happens.

I remember in 1979 a Cyclonasaurus Rex slid down the West coast of WA and sent bananas flying everywhere in Carnarvon, flattened Geraldton, and eased to a large rain depression when it hit Perth. If GW had’ve been invented back then the greenie ratpacks would have had a hissy fit.

[Sisemen]

Absolutely normal mate! But Facebook has the usual loonies putting it down to “climate change”. Just hope we get some rain out of it.

[Undried Plum]

Nah, that's not a storm. THIS is a storm!Screenshot 2020-02-08 17.26.06.png

**** thing is spinning the wrong way round.

Nothing good can come of that. Bit like those bastard spin bowlers you keep dicking us with.

[Undried Plum]

On the very relevant matter of vertical datums and the sea: I'll tell a little story, with explanations.

Marine charts have a vertical datum of Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT). Some older ones have a datum of Indian Springs Low Water, but that's pretty close to being the same thing. The actual tide can sink a lot lower than that due to weather induced negative storm surges. The seabed of the Southern North Sea, at it's shoalest, is criss-crosssed with furrows gouged out by supertankers which have misunderstood the significance of vertical datum and have effectively been aground on the move.

Even the mighty Cunarder QE2 has been driven hard aground, stuck fast until the next high tide, close by NorfMurrica, due to a very surprising lack of knowledge and understanding of vertical datum.

Her Captain can be expected to be one of the best in the Cunard fleet and probably one of the best in the entire Merchant Navy. Samesame for her Chief Officer. Her charts were fully up to date and were subsequently found to be a good depiction of the bathymetry of the area. She had the very best of navaids and she was ontrack on her pre-planned voyage plan. She had a well qualified Marine Pilot aboard. There was no negative storm surge at the time and place of the grounding. Her draft fore and aft had been correctly sounded and properly recorded.

So how did she fetch up hard aground?

It was a combination of two phenomena which all hydrographic surveyors are aware of: Squat and Settlement.

Squat is the tendency of a ship to tuck her arse deep into the water when the propulsion is producing a lot of thrust. It's very conspicuous in powerful speedboats, but it happens to every ship.

Settlement is a suction effect of the hull-shape. A bit like the lift of a wing, but inverted. There's also an Interference Effect in shallow water, somewhat similar to Ground Effect, but in the opposite sense. That too sucks the hull down. Additively (or negatively, depending on your point of view).

To the astonishment of perhaps every hydrographer in the world, certainly to those of us who are worth our very easily available salt, neither the Captain nor the Marine Pilot had a good understanding of those effects and neither of them had properly taken them into account.

When doing bathymetric work it is always taken into account. It has to be as, it significantly affects the actual draft of the survey ship when running boustrophedontical survey lines. It's a correction to the measured depth, just as important as tidal correction and others. We are meticulous on that sort of thing. Quite rightly.

The cause of the accident was that the distinguished people involved in the QE2 thing didn't fully and properly understand the complexities of what sea level/depth actually means in reality. They should/ought to to have known better.

The Science is not wrong. It is the Ignorance, as well as the much worse Ignore-ance, of Science which is so dangerously wrong and so dangerous to some of us; and more so to all of our forebears.

[AtomKraft]

It's all shite.

I shall just get on with my life, and I suggest you chaps, including UP, do the same.

[Undried Plum]

Thankyou for your declaration of your knowledge of the subject.

I shall treasure it, somewhat.

[TheGreenGoblin]

The Science is not wrong. It is the Ignorance, as well as the much worse Ignore-ance, of Science which is so dangerously wrong and so dangerous to some of us; and more so to all of our forebears.

Amen to that. I mean look at the dinosaurs, 165 million years of ignorance and wiped out due to that ignorance. Humanity hasn't been around for more than 200 thousand years and judging by the way things are going, and our willful ignorance, we will probably be extinct in another 500, if that!

[Undried Plum]

It's our afterbears who will curse us. Not our forebears.

They are pretty much the people same, as yet unborn, who will look back at us at, and in wonder at, and in anger of, that huge question of: --- What **** were you people thinking of?

[ian16th]

UP
I hardly understand any 3 consecutive words that you have written, but I find it fascinating, please keep it up.

[TheGreenGoblin]

UP
I hardly understand any 3 consecutive words that you have written, but I find it fascinating, please keep it up.

I have become a big fan of UP's writing... he makes a great deal of sense and clearly knows of what he speaks... he is wiser than me and maybe I should be apt to listen more quietly...

[TheGreenGoblin]

Ben's idea that scientific data has some kind of political chirality, "Left" or "Right", is just nuts.

+1

Kind of guy who would have suited the the Nazi's or the Stalinists. Anti-rational. Amoral. Antagonistic to the scientific method. Doesn't really believe anything. Not a funster either. When it all goes tits up he will claim "I was only following the markets and obeying orders"....

A cipher...

At least Slasher and Atom have warmth and humour in their human foibles...

[BenThere]

In my own defense I assert that every single element of your stated perception of me is false, Goblin. Undried Plum is wrong as well.

For the record, I consider Nazis and Stalinists as the pinnacle of Evil. And I do my best to be both rational and moral. The scientific method is my friend, and it would be nice if it were applied empirically, not politically, particularly in the assessments of climate issues. The rest of your insulting post is also rubbish, but unworthy of response.

[Rwy in Sight]

BT with all due respect morality changes as per age.

[BenThere]

So I get this personal labelling on a thread defined a climate disruption? Can one not have an opinion anymore without being labeled a 'phobe' or 'ist' if it doesn't march in line with the narrative?

Here's another argument about climate change.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bre ... ing-charts

Refute it if you can, but please consider the logic and validity of the compiled assessment as you do so. At the bottom line, I support wholeheartedly the cleanest environment we can manage. What I object to is the throwing away of enormous amounts of capital, infrastructure, and future investment costs associated with the general green movement which I don't believe has adequately assessed either the economic cost or the benefits to be derived. If the case is made I'll go along. The case hasn't yet been made to my satisfaction, though I have very little influence on policy decisions at such a magnitude. And the truth is that if my energy costs go up $100/month I will hardly feel it, but others below me on the economic ladder will feel it hard. What would you suggest is the compassionate position to take?

May I point out that with the US fracking miracle and our newfound energy independence, largely focused on natural gas, that we are top of the heap in terms of complying with the emissions agreements we have made, some of which we have rescinded and walked away from? For now the US remains the ecological paragon for reducing emissions, maintaining a healthy water supply nation-wide, and providing a cornucopia of food through private networks of grocery suppliers and agricultural producers (farmers). I love living half my life these days in Mexico, but when I come home for the other half I realize the abundance, convenience, and general well-being of the US, made ever so much better under the Trump administration.