Ousting Tyrants

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Ousting Tyrants

#1 Post by Bob » Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:13 pm

I firmly believe that often when there are a widely disparate peoples within a country's borders the only force strong enough to keep the warring factions apart is a despotic leader. Yugoslavia being the perfect example. Do feel free to open a new thread to discuss these thoughts, if considered relevant.

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I have to agree Alison, It's a lesson the West is taking a long time to learn, especially USA, UK and France I must add (in order of degree of bloody mindedness and stupidity) IMO
I sense that it is beginning to sink in with regard to Syria, but is largely tempered by those country's Egos and inability to show remorse and admit their mistakes, which way it will go from here on I can't hazard a guess...how do others feel, have we learned from all the failed regime change exercises or are we doomed to be ever the idiots with big guns and small minds?
Or is it simply all about Oil/Gas Energy security?

Whatever the truth, It'll never come from our Governments
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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#2 Post by OFSO » Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:19 pm

In principle, yes.

But first problem is to define a tyrant. If 51% of the population (or more) agree that 'x' is a tyrant, does that make him one ? (Or her). Or if not 51%, then 55% ? 60% ? Your "tyrant" may be my "just and benevolent ruler, an enforcer of peace". Were Iranians - the average person - happy under the Mohammad Reza Shah ? Was Iraq a more stable place under Saddam ?

Second problem is how to get rid of 'x'. That great philosopher and sci-fi writer Robert Heinlein in "Glory Road" discusses the methods of the Empress Star in governing twenty universes. Firstly she shows great reluctance in having to 'deal' with any problem. "Ignore it and it will go away" is her approach. But when she does have to judge, when she is FORCED to judge, judge she does. Quoting from memory: "This problem will go away if you take that man there - yes you - outside and kill him". And they did. Seems reasonable to me, but does it to you ?

Reduce the problem to ad absurdo. Bloke down the street beats his wife: do you intervene ? Or keeps lots of guns and other nasties ? Do you intervene ? Even if it never affects you - but does the mistreatment of his wife and family really pass you by. OK so at what level do you intervene, and how ? Same thing applies in larger form to dictators and tyrants. Who decides and how do you enforce your decision ?

Weighty matters.

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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#3 Post by Sisemen » Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:51 pm

Oh, it’s really quite simple.

A tyrant is anybody that the left decides is a tyrant. If, unusually, the right declare someone to be a tyrant then they are mistaken; they are simply an oppressed champion of the people.

Got it?

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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#4 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:20 pm

The answer to both tyrant and the wifebeater problem depends entirely on a group's attitudes to both values and criminal acts. These are largely founded in cultural, religious and familial traditions. For example a 'wifebeater' in an islamic country may be doing what his religion requires him to do.
Where groups share these attitudes, nations formed of those groups can be stable, and where nations share these values, supernational groups can be stable.
The problem for the humanity at the moment is that groups within nations, and especially within supernational groups, do NOT share these attitudes. Worse than that, they pretend they do.
I read somewhere a long time ago that societies can only function when 97%+ are basically law-abiding, owing to the inability of the justice system to cope effectively with more than 3% criminality. More recent research shows this fits very well with the percentage of immigrants from disparate cultures. More than 3% guarantees trouble, whether that is 3% on a local or national basis. The response of western countries, Governments in particular, has been to pretend the criminality is not so rather than take action. There were over 5,000 cases of FGM in the UK last year, and zero prosecutions.
As Alison points out, stability can be maintained in countries with disparate cultures by a more, shall we say, vigorous justice system, and nothing a committee does can be described as vigorous, so a sole leader tends to emerge. As Sweden, Belgium etc are discovering, a bureaucratic democracy cannot handle holding disparate cultures together.
I should point out that I regard disparate cultures and multiculturalism separately. I would say disparate cultures are those with major differences in major values, and multiculturalism is a grouping of cultures that do not differ on these main points. For example, Sikhs and Christians can co-exist peacefully, whereas shia and sunni cannot. Unfortunately, the term multiculturalism is generally applied to both these situations, in the vain hope that pretending there isn't a problem will make it go away.
Historically, many groups that did not live peacefully together are now able to, such as Protestants and Catholics, but universally this is because one or all groups have changed their attitudes. Every modern Christian's attitudes would have made them a heretic 500 years ago, but none of them expect the Spanish Inquisition today. Also historically, this has not happened without one or all of the groups having the sh!t kicked out of them.

The solution to the problem cannot be found in mass migration without cultural change. For example, simply sticking a bunch of Somali muslims in a Protestant American city just causes trouble, and there is no fixing it, and pretending there is just makes things worse faster. Getting the Somalis to take an oath is pointless in a culture where lying to promote the faith is acceptable. Furthermore, every muslim who took the oath and meant it would no longer be a muslim in the eyes of the rest of the faith. This can be seen with the Ahmadiyya. If a group can be spread out, then there exists the possibility that they may change their attitudes peacefully in time without significant trouble occurring. However, both self-ghettoization for cultural reasons and that which arises from economic reasons mean this is isn't happening in the modern world.

With all that said, if you want a peaceful, just (by UN standards) nation, then you need multiculturalism - groups which agree on major values and justice systems. If you want a peaceful nation with disparate cultures, it can't be just (by UN standards) and tends to end up with a tyrant.* And if you get rid of that tyrant, you end up with a "failed nation".
As already hinted at, the UN doesn't hold its members to their oaths, so it is already a "failed supernational group", as is the EU. And logically therefore, globalisation is a guaranteed nightmare. To conclude, no nation should admit immigrants without common cultural values (and that means meaning it, not just saying it), and a whole bunch of nations will not have peace and justice until the groups within them share values. Thus far in human history, that has not been achieved without major warfare and ethnic migration, whether enforced (violently or otherwise) or voluntary, or by eliminating the disparate culture (typically by enforced schooling of children, such as in Canada and Australia).

*Of course, tyrants can also arise in multicultural nations, for different reasons.

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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#5 Post by Bob » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:26 pm

Not worth the bother
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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#6 Post by Bob » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:35 pm

Leaving the definition of a Tyrant aside, which was not really my point, but its all good in a discussion of course, Fox, this bit....."if you want a peaceful, just (by UN standards) nation", it's the "if" bit that concerns me should the west attempt to make somewhere over there peacefull with all the obvious risks of a negative outcome that experience has shown us?, do we even have the right? (sorry of course we do might is right, i forgot for a second there), or my other question, is it really about oil/gas..etc?
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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#7 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:22 pm

The basis for an attempt must be two-fold - both right and possible. My argument is that it's impossible, so the matter of right needn't come into it. Which is important, since as you point out, there's no agreement on whether a right exists.
All the evidence of where the US intervenes seems to point to either oil, or geopolitical control of perceived opponents. Where neither of those two conditions occurs, the US does not intervene. If it walks like a duck....

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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#8 Post by Alisoncc » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:34 am

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:20 pm
The answer to both tyrant and the wifebeater problem depends entirely on a group's attitudes to both values and criminal acts..............
Well said Fox. Agree wholeheartedly with everything you wrote. Every time a despot has been removed chaos has ensued. Whether Libya, Iraq, current attempts in Syria, and others. Who's to say it wouldn't happen in North Korea if America got to give Kim the shove, or the Mullahs in Iran.
Rev Mother Bene Gesserit.

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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#9 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:49 am

Which is why, love him or loath him, Trump's threatening China with a trade war appears to be the correct approach to achieving the aim of Nork nuclear disarmament. And of course China is trying to avoid removing Yung Fat Wun also. Let's hope the same approach is taken in Iran (this time ;) ).

Meanwhile, in far more important news, Leafs lead the Bruins 3-1 with 1 minute remaining - it's going to Game 7!

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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#10 Post by John Hill » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:45 am

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:49 am
Trump's threatening China with a trade war appears to be the correct approach to achieving the aim of Nork nuclear disarmament..
Some people will believe anything!
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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#11 Post by Sisemen » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:13 am

Some people will believe anything!

As you have so succinctly demonstrated in many of your posts =))

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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#12 Post by OFSO » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:59 pm

A factor which hasn't been mentioned (so I will) is the place where the tyrant is operating. Might be worth getting rid of a tyrant operating in a European country, but somewhere large hot and dark - say, oh, I don't know, lets say Africa...no point at all.

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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#13 Post by Bob » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:10 am

What if this place has oil/gas or is in a position to facilitate a pipeline or transportation otherwise OFSO?
I have an inkling that this plays into the equation, could such factors even have the highest priority I wonder?
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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#14 Post by OFSO » Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:04 pm

Rather like a certain European country which is run by fascists who deny basic human rights, but whose support for the EU is considered so important that these are never mentioned. Of course when Poland, Hungary etc try it Oberfüher Juncker gets up on his hind legs and pontificates.

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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#15 Post by BenThere » Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:22 pm

What if this place has oil/gas or is in a position to facilitate a pipeline or transportation otherwise OFSO?
I have an inkling that this plays into the equation, could such factors even have the highest priority I wonder?
Of course you wonder, Bob, because you've been conditioned to think it's all about oil and pipelines, the evil workings of capitalism in your world view.

I'd submit that energy, largely thanks to the US fracking revolution, is no longer a driver of geopolitics. LNG transport of magnificent quantities of natural gas is gradually supplanting your pipeline argument. You need a new hammer to wield on good ole USA.

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Re: Ousting Tyrants

#16 Post by Bob » Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:47 pm

OFSO wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:04 pm
Rather like a certain European country which is run by fascists who deny basic human rights, but whose support for the EU is considered so important that these are never mentioned. Of course when Poland, Hungary etc try it Oberfüher Juncker gets up on his hind legs and pontificates.
Oberfüher Juncker is not long for this world, but you can be sure of one thing........... the new boss will be the same as the old Boss
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