The Doomsday Machine.

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AtomKraft
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The Doomsday Machine.

#1 Post by AtomKraft » Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:46 am

Just been reading a fascinating book.
There seems to be a lot out there, that although it's known- isn't widely known, or at least it wasn't by me.

For example;
Although the only two attacks with Nuclear weapons are well known, nukes have been widely used to threaten other states many times, by practically every single POTUS, and although some must have been bluffs, it's clear that some threats were anything but. This policy continues.

Further, although many states have signed 'no first use' declarations, the US never has. It's clear that although it would certainly lead to omnicide, and the end of advanced society, the US Force at least is set up to initiate war, in the forlorn hope of 'winning' by a successful 'decapitating' first strike that would leave Russia unable to respond. The SIOP of the early sixties was set up to go 'all out' with the Russians- (and weirdly the Chinese (!?!?! Even if the Chinese had nothing to do with it) in the event of ANY conventional fight with the USSR breaking out bigger than roughly Company level. No wonder the Russkies are a bit paranoid!
It seems the policy was just to nuke the Chinese totally, even if they had nothing to do with it. The SIOP made no distinction between USSR and China.

The boook also describes the existence of the Russian doomsday weapon, a device known formally as 'Perimiter', but more widely known as 'Dead Hand' in Russian. This ensures, by ways of an automatic system, which only needs to be turned on, that in the event of a successful 'decapitating' strike upon Russia, there will be a full retaliatory strike, with the initial missiles launched automatically, and then auto-launching remaining missiles as they pass overhead, until all the missiles are launched. A truly terrifying prospect. The system is on alert and active.

The book proposes that no state has authority to retain such a capability, and winding down of ICBMs in particular should start asap. The US is refurbishing upgrading nuclear forces as we speak.

Written by a chap who was right at the heart of things in the early sixties, and includes a startling reassessment of the Cuban crisis, revealing there were 100 tactical warheads on Cuba, waiting for any invaders, and also how close the Russian subs came to firing at the US Navy with nukes, and it was a lot closer than you think.

The US came within an Ace of invading, when Rudy Anderson U-2 was shot down, and that would have sent the whole World on fire. Khrushchev had forbidden his SA-2s to fire, but the commander got carried away in the excitement, and fired on the U-2 successfully. Cuban AAA was blasting away at the low level PR jets, it was only a question of time till they shot one down.The Joint Chiefs were itching to attack, but it would have gone Nuclear immediately, had they done so and World War 3 would have started.

How long can our luck hold, do you think?

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#2 Post by Cacophonix » Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:52 am

AtomKraft wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:46 am
Just been reading a fascinating book.
There seems to be a lot out there, that although it's known- isn't widely known, or at least it wasn't by me.

For example;
Although the only two attacks with Nuclear weapons are well known, nukes have been widely used to threaten other states many times, by practically every single POTUS, and although some must have been bluffs, it's clear that some threats were anything but. This policy continues.

Further, although many states have signed 'no first use' declarations, the US never has. It's clear that although it would certainly lead to omnicide, and the end of advanced society, the US Force at least is set up to initiate war, in the forlorn hope of 'winning' by a successful 'decaptiating' first strike that would leave Russia unable to respond. The SIOP of the early sixties was set up to go 'all out' with the Russians- (and weirdly the Chinese (!?!?! Even if the Chinese had nothing to do with it) in the event of ANY conventional fight with the USSR breaking out bigger than roughly Company level. No wonder the Russkies are a bit paranoid!
It seems the policy was just to nuke the Chinese totally, even if they had nothing to do with it. The SIOP made no distinction between USSR and China.

The boook also describes the existence of the Russian doomsday weapon, a device known formally as 'Perimiter', but more widely known as 'Dead Hand' in Russian. This ensures, by ways of an automatic system, which only needs to be turned on, that in the event of a successful 'decapitating' strike upon Russia, there will be a full retaliatory strike, with the initial missiles launched automatically, and then auto-launching remaining missiles as they pass overhead, until all the missiles are launched. A truly terrifying prospect.

The book proposes that no state has authority to retain such a capability, and winding down of ICBMs in particular should start asap. The US is refurbishing upgrading nuclear forces as we speak.

Written by a chap who was right at the heart of things in the early sixties, and includes a startling reassessment of the Cuban crisis, revealing there were 100 tactical warheads on Cuba, waiting for any invaders, and also how close the Russian subs came to firing at the US Navy with nukes.

How long can our luck hold, do you think?
It is bound to all go tits up sooner or later but not before lunch tomorrow as I am looking forward to boar burger with cheese at the local restaurant.

Caco

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#3 Post by G-CPTN » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:03 am

As a youngster with some knowledge of the effects of nuclear attacks (thanks to briefings by the Air Training Corps), the Cuban confrontation alarmed me - I might say frightened me.
Since then I became more relaxed as I realised that "What will be will be" and no amount of worry by myself would affect the outcome.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#4 Post by AtomKraft » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:09 am

G-CPTN.
If you'd known how close we came, you'd have been a lot more worried. A sub needed the Captain and his deputy to agree to shoot. On one boat, these two decided to fire, but they had the Flotilla Commander on their boat, and so in addition, they and only they needed three to agree. The Flotilla commander demurred. Had he not been on that particular sub, they'd likely have fired.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#5 Post by Slasher » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:23 am

Part of the Cold War strategy was the psychological so-called 'animal passions' - "if you're dumb and crazy enough to push the nuclear button then WE are dumb and crazy enough to retaliate ten times over!" The same thing with India and the Pakis, except they both know that each is just as crazy as the other if a brawl started.

This I think has what's kept the peace and avoided WW3. I couldn't care less about the Norks or Iran - they'd be obliterated and wiped off the map in 5 minutes - and the FLUF and ayatollahs know it.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#6 Post by AtomKraft » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:40 am

Well, Slasher, to quote Friedrich Nietzsche....

"Madness in individuals is something rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule".

Slasher

Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#7 Post by Slasher » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:44 am

Nietzsche stayed in a mental asylum in the Thuringian city of Jena for a while, so yep he should know.

He also bonked his sister Elisabeth Förster-Nietzsche. Says so in his book My Sister and I.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#8 Post by AtomKraft » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:55 am

Well, Corbyn pumped that Diane Abbott, and he's allegedly sane. At least Nietzsche could plead insanity.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#9 Post by Slasher » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:57 am

=)) True!

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#10 Post by Krystal n Chips » Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:45 am

AtomKraft wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:40 am
Well, Slasher, to quote Friedrich Nietzsche....

"Madness in individuals is something rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule".
That's a neat summary of UKIP and some elements of the military .....well done. ( can also be witnessed on some websites )

It's actually a very sobering read as to just how close the "game " of political brinkmanship came to exposing the world to the destructive capability of nuclear weapons ( again )......no surprise I'm against the proliferation and Trident development.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#11 Post by om15 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:00 am

no surprise I'm against the proliferation and Trident development.
That simply leads to the other side having the ultimate weapon and this country not. How will that protect us?

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#12 Post by Pontius Navigator » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:16 am

Om15, I am not aware of a nuclear power using the threat of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear one.

You might argue that the US nuclear weapons guarantee Taiwan's security but would the US really use them against mainland China?

Could UK really consider a nuclear retailation against a small nuclear power that nuked a British base somewhere?

Is a resurgent Russia likely to blackmail, let alone attack, a large, powerful non-nuclear power, say Japan, or does that too fall under the US umbrella?

Would such an umbrella not be extended to a non-nuclear UK?

I know that the US would rather control our launch procedures rather than just control our launch systems.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#13 Post by om15 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:28 am

Would such an umbrella not be extended to a non-nuclear UK?
Why should the UK rely on the US to protect us, I know many countries (often those who are vocal in anti US views) do so, but I don't agree that we should disarm, particularly so as those amongst us that do wish to disarm would appear to be closely tied to communism.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#14 Post by Pontius Navigator » Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:42 am

Om15, having been on a deterrent crew for 10 years and subsequently with American weapons for a further 6 I am no cimmunist. At the time I had no doubt that deterrence worked and that we would drop our bomb if necessary. The World has moved on I am no longer a believer.

I reached my conclusion a few years before Douglas Hurd reached his.

I can, I believe, cite two occasions when nuclear deterrence may have worked. We were in Aden under tight security for a week. The locals said things were very quiet while we were there. Shortly thereafter our 4 aircraft replaced 8 older bombers. Our conventional bomb load uplift was less than one third of the aircraft we replaced. It is quite possible that the 'wrong' conclusions were drawn. Soft glove, iron fist. Remember too, this was just 19 years after first use, at the height of the nuclear weapons arms race, and when the World was still coming to terms with these terrible weapons.

Today, almost 75 years on, no country has even threatened first use with Cuba being the only real instance of balance of terror.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#15 Post by om15 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:59 am

PN, I suppose it is an insurance against unknown changes in the world. The next leader of Russia may not be such a softie as Putin, who knows. I just can't think that being unarmed is safer than being armed.
I am mid way through "Vietnam" by Max Hastings, the reason that China and the USSR did not become involved other than suppling materials and "advisors" is that they were convinced that Lyndon Johnson would use nuclear weapons if they did so. The nuclear threat in this case did save many lives.
Possibly India and Pakistan have cooled off because of the threat of nuclear weapon retaliation, if both sides did not hold these weapons it may well be all out conventional war at the moment.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#16 Post by AtomKraft » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:02 am

Pontious.
It seems the US threatened other countries with nukes rather a lot. The book mentions about thirty separate events.

North Vietnam,(which counts as one event) claim they were threatened on thirteen separate occasions.

North Korea is another very well known one. Both non nuclear countries of course.

There were many other times too.

The US hasn't actually attacked anyone since Japan, but they've used the nukes to threaten on plenty of occasions. The writer likens it to pointing a gun at someone's head, as opposed to doing so and then pulling the trigger.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#17 Post by BenThere » Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:32 pm

I worked the better part of my 30 year USAF career pulling SIOP alert as a tanker pilot. We were tasked with launching on notice of a few minutes while sitting in an alert facility, waiting for the horn that would either test our readiness or send us on a nuclear war odyssey. You never knew if it was real or exercise. My experience was that it was always an exercise except for one instance when a real message was mistakenly transmitted, scaring the ***** out of all of us.

We also studied, and had to frequently certify to senior commanders our understanding and capability to execute the mission.

When the horn sounded, crews got a transmitted message that informed them of the mission. It was always either Russia or China. While I was doing it, Russia was regarded as the primary threat, and when it sent nuclear subs into our proximity our alert response times were often shortened to the point where we actually had to sit in the cockpit, ready to fire the engines with cartridges that would start them all in less than a minute and proceed to the hold line in another minute, ready to go.

The execution order came in the form of a coded radio message that told us whether we were supporting a nuclear attack on Russia or China. The China missions were taught, studied, and certified by the crews, but I always thought of them as secondary to the Russian missions. While China had developed ICBMs that could reach us, that eventuality was deemed unlikely, so we focused our attention more on the Russian option. In any case, the tankers would offload the required fuel to fill up the Buffs and peel off to somewhere in Alaska to land, regenerate and wait for subsequent assignments.

I sat on alert with a bottle of Johnny Walker Black in my alert duffel bag, thinking that if I ever was launched on alert for real, the optimum finish would be to go out drinking with friends.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#18 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:10 pm

My little bit was to be ready to shoot down the Rooskie nuclear bombers. Theoretically, you could shoot them all down if the FC crowd had the fighters perfectly allocated to every raid, if 80% of the tankers worked, if every missile worked, AND you could also down a bomber with every 30 rounds from the cannon (about 2 one-third of a second bursts) - you needed 4 rounds to hit.
Therefore, in practice, one wouldn't be returning to base as that would be a 150' deep hole with a mushroom cloud over it. Air Defence bases were a #3 priority target generally, with command bunkers #1 and BenThere's nuclear strike lot as #2, but main AD bases were on the initial list to ensure there would no second wave to attack the nuclear bombers which were attacking the Priority #1 and #2 targets in their second wave.
Pretty much every crew had both a shortlist of bases where they might be able to beg a reload of missiles, and a further 'On The Beach' landing spot if the whole world turned upside down. It has been interesting to discuss with other aircrew in later years where they planned to run to. Mine was Akureyri in Iceland, because the runway was so short one could get in but likely not out again (it's longer now), it was a long way from any nuclear target, it had a well regarded brewery, and a reputation for adulterous women.
We also were usually only told whether a QRA scramble was real or exercise once we were airborne.
One of our navs had been Strike GR1 in RAF Germany in his previous life. He related the tale of about 7pm one Friday, with everyone pleasantly merry from happy hour and changing into Mess Dress for a Dining In night. The nuclear 'Crews to Cockpits' siren went off, rather quietly, as if the Mess siren had failed but nearby buildings were working (this happened). This was never used for practice. Curtains were pulled open to see lots of flames just beyond the trees and the sound of explosions starting to go off. Apparently, this is will sober people up instantly. Aircrew rapidly dragged their flying suits back on, sometimes over Mess Kit, and sprinted for their vehicles and thence to their squadrons. Several car accidents ensued (none serious).
The local paint factory had caught fire, just beyond the perimeter fence. By sheer chance, they had purchased the same siren for their internal fire alarm as the RAF had for the nuclear alert. It was rather loud as it needed to alert the local Fire brigade as well as their own factory. After that, the MoD got a bit more careful about its choice of sirens, including I believe forbidding particular frequencies being used by a supplier for anyone else.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#19 Post by BenThere » Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:41 pm

That's how you learn, Fox. You watch things fall apart and determine not to go that route.

I've been to Akureyri, around the Arctic Circle, it sits there and makes fine Viking Beer, and wherever you go you'll never get a finer fresh salmon or whatever the boat brings in that day.

When I was a new co-pilot in SAC, dazzled by my awesome SIOP responsibiliies, my more seasoned aircraft commander said that if the balloon went up we'd be more likely heading for Tahiti (we were flying out of Northern California). He ended up with a single digit seniority number at Southwest Airlines.

A few years ago his sister called him about trouble with her junkie son in Phoenix. He responded and went to the home and was stabbed to death by his nephew.. RIP Rick, you were a really good guy.

I've had the same thoughts, Fox. A light weight tanker (B-707) can land and stop on 3,000', but with an operational fuel load needs 8,000' to get off the ground. So if you want to get out of the war, land on the short runway and wait for relief.

The best thing about war stories is how so many of us played bit parts and how someone figured out how to put them all together. When I finally got to the point of commanding a flying squadron in combat, although it was Bosnia-Kosovo, not a heroic battle for survival, I realized how much forethought and planning goes into scheduling and aligning the available assets to run a war. Way beyond what I could do. They just told me where and when my tankers had to be and my job was to make sure they showed up. Just doing that made my hands full and I worked 18 hour days, 7 days a week, for the six weeks of that war to make it happen. Thank God we had all the advantages. What I came out of it all was that US military planning and execution is excellent. If there's someone out there who can do better, and I don't think there is, good luck to 'em, but my prediction is that you're in for a spanking.

Your only hope is that we put Democrats in power and replace President Trump.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#20 Post by John Hill » Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:27 pm

Did anyone ask the Tahitians if you would have been welcome there?
Been in data comm since we formed the bits individually with a Morse key.

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