The Doomsday Machine.

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Fox3WheresMyBanana
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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#41 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:55 pm

OK, I'll bite. Here's a few thoughts for you, Atomkraft.
Do you really think we never thought about strategy, and whether the bunch of idiot charlatans in power were going to f#ck up?
Why do you think so many left the Armed Services straight after the Cold War ended, faster (in the case of the RAF at least) than the numbers could be wound down?
Those who stayed, and those who serve now, have to cope with the problem of both wars which might be a squandering of lives, as you put it, and wars which might start that would be worth fighting. If everybody leaves, we would lose the latter as well as maybe not get involved in the former.
Mutually Assured Destruction doesn't work when you have 100 nukes, only when you have 2,000+. If you can find a safe way to get from 2,000+ to 100, and a safe policy that will work at 100, I'm listening. We all are. Nobody's figured that out yet. You are neglecting the likelihood of the **** of all options partway through the decommissioning process. Personally, I'm just glad we are able to have much smaller, more accurate warheads, and nobody's planning on chucking around thousands of 20 MT+ warheads any more.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#42 Post by Pontius Navigator » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:47 pm

Fox, continuing on that line, which deterrent is better: 20MT or 0.5kt?

Oh look, we can just . . .

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#43 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:56 pm

Hey Fox.
Your bite, appreciated. 👍

I take your main point entirely, and in the spirit I think you intended.

Nowadays, it seems the land based ICBMs are more suited to 'counterforce' applications, so perhaps they will be the first to go, in the very delicate process of reducing the numbers- which are about 80% less, in total, than the peak numbers.

The SLBMs are very aggressive, with their shorter flight/ warning times, but at least they are relatively invulnerable to a tempting first strike. So not likely to be used in a first strike.

Like you, or any sane person, I despair at where we are, but just give thanks we are still here.

If we hope to still be here two, three or eight hundred years from now....

I thought you might have commented on my NFU suggestion, but no worries.

(Edit to add, was talking to my Russki f/o today, and although he admits most Russians would prefer to live in the US, and that most Russians don't like the US, (🤣) neither he nor I could say why Russia went from our ally to our enemy.
I guess that's a question for another day though...).

Another edit. If we could get down to your 2,000 per side, that would be a reduction in the order of the one that took place between the sixties, and today- so a helluva good START...

And a final edit!
Sure, the things are more accurate now, but you still need groundbursts for counterforce attacks. Ok, so fewer 25 Mt loads, but it changes nothing.
Still looking at 100 million dead in Europe- our friends!
And the prospect of a winnable nuclear conflict is as far away as ever, so what's changed? Not much. Anyone fires, we all get it in the neck.

I wonder if China is still in a target pair with Russia.....I hope not.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#44 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:39 pm

You know, you should really read this book.

Two points:
The writer, this Daniel Ellsberg, argued that any strike on the USSR should explicitly avoid the nuclear control and Comms centres, so they'd be able to stop!

Also, he proposed a 'no cities' version of the SIOP, allowing the first strikes to go to military targets, leaving 'ransom' cities, to help stop it before it went all the way....but the apex bodies had to survive to negotiate and make decisions- not happening if already glowing...

You cold Warriors should read this book.

I was just an Air Trooper.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#45 Post by Pontius Navigator » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:52 pm

Also, he proposed a 'no cities' version of the SIOP, allowing the first strikes to go to military targets, leaving 'ransom' cities, to help stop it before it went all the way....
There is a snag here.

The UK counter force targets under the SIOP were frequently IAVPOStrany based on the natural penetration route for East coast SAC bases. That fits the proposition.

However for historic and technical reason airbases tend to be near population centres. No one thinks 'I know, we must site this airfield away from the city in case there is a nuclear attack'.

Missile fields by their very nature are deliberately sited away from towns and you can do this as there are far fewer people involved in maintaining a missile complex.

It may well be that the first wave would have spared the cities as the earliest bombers from UK would be an hour or two later even if launch at the same time, plenty of time to call a halt.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#46 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:59 pm

Atomkraft, it seems you took it in the correct vein, the internet is tricky with highly contentious topics.

The basis of the triad concept is that sudden vulnerabilities in one system means you still have 2 different ones. I agree that land-based are the least preferred, and of course the UK binned theirs very rapidly and the French have also now. However, air-droppable is a slow response system, relatively speaking, and robot subkillers are very rapidly becoming a potential threat, and may already exist in numbers. I'd keep all three if I were one of the big three.

SLBMs are the primary first strike weapon and will be used in that role. Depending on objectives and estimated responses, it may make sense to keep a few for counterstrike. The only time SLBMs do not get used for the first nukes is either if one side decides to use nukes in a battlefield context and believes the other side will similarly restrict themselves, or a few 'demonstration' nukes are decided on.

NFU does not make sense without a superiority in conventional forces and knowing that the enemy cannot inflict unacceptable damage (whatever that gets defined as) before the conventional superiority can do what's necessary.

I do not despair, and I don't think you'll find anyone, like PN, who was picked to do the nuke job is the despairing type. I don't do regret either. We are where we are essentially because of human nature. I did not start this. I put my best efforts (including how I voted) into it not happening.

As to PN's point about smaller nukes, the simple and honest answer is that smaller nukes will now affect me last, and very little if at all in almost all scenarios, unlike the biggies. I'm pretty keen on looking after me; always have been ;)))

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#47 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:20 pm

I hope the SIOP has changed from when it meant any battalion sized conventional skirmish with Russia meant an all out attack on Russia, and strangely China too.

It was very Strangelovian back in the sixties....

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#48 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:23 pm

Fox:
Any comments on US NFU, or the Russians 'Dead Hand'?
The US has the biggest conventional forces, so I don't see your point at all.

You kinda remind me of a chap I used to fly with: Lightning (👌) pilot, great at talking, but had a lot of trouble listening. Great guy though.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#49 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:29 pm

NFU is in there.
As for the 'Dead Hand', well 'Dr Strangelove' stuff really, which unsurprisingly is one of my favourite movies.

p.s. Never flew the lighting, unless you count wiring up 6 bulbs in the basement last month ;)))

p.p.s. You can tell a fighter pilot, but you can't tell him much. :D

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#50 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:36 pm

Well, mine too.
I remember flying one day from Scotland to London.

Onto our freq came a formation of B-52s, on their initial deployment from the US to Fairford for GW1.

I'm sure I wasn't the only one to smile when 'RIPPER Formation' checked in.

Quite a film.

All that was missing was their bodily fluids.....

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#51 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:40 pm

"Nook-ku-lar combat toe-to-toe with the Rooskies!"



One of my navs had a comfy old soft helmet he used to keep for going to WW3 in. No point being annihilated in discomfort!

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#52 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:45 pm

Slim Pickins.
Quite the man for the job.👍🤓

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#53 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:46 pm

Perfect!

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#54 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:56 pm

Two weeks ago I was at Huu Tiep lake in Ha Noi, looking at what's left of COBALT 01, 56-605, lying in a lake. One of 15 Such jets shot down during the '11 days of Christmas' in 1972.

Still, nice footage of Slim in his shiny jet.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#55 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:58 pm

You guys were professional for sure, and brave.

But I'm sure you must have often thought you were getting your leg pulled.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#56 Post by Pontius Navigator » Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:16 pm

Fox, take your point about SLBM killers and a powerful argument for 1st Strike. Certainly in earlier days the fixed base, non-deployable silo systems some might have survived a first strike based on large CEP. Today I would have thought they would be highly vulnerable.

SLBM OTOH would be less vulnerable based on whose SSN was doing the killing. I would guess that the West has the edge on survivability. One vulnerability would be counter-SLBM counter fire. As soon as the trajectory of the first missile is determined a counter launch might follow. Unless the SSBN salvos the lot it will need to get out of Dodge fast.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#57 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:20 pm

Mad talk.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#58 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:00 pm

I did not mean SSNs, I mean robot super torpedoes designed to intercept and follow SSBNs, and destroy them under certain conditions. Submarine suicide drones, if you will. Take all the humans and deployable weapons out of an SSN and it becomes a big torpedo, faster, and easier to hide and stealthify*.

SSBNs will likely salvo the lot, for the reason you describe. This is why I stated an SSBN would not be used for a demonstration strike, with just one or two missiles launched, since it is then compromised.

*Is that a word?? It is now!

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#59 Post by Pontius Navigator » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:17 pm

* once invented a word on a US dominated forum, it sounded right and fitted the bill. No one questioned it.

If we accept Qinetiq when English invariably adds U and Kinetic is the proper spelling we can acceptify anything.

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Re: The Doomsday Machine.

#60 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:03 pm

I can agreeify that! ;)))

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