Getting hot in the Gulf

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Undried Plum
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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#261 Post by Undried Plum » Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:30 pm

The really worrisome thing is that the Gulf and Levant are looking more and more like Europe in 1913 with each passing day.

There's a horrendously complicated tangle of interconnected web-like alliances and allegiances. Everybody is tooled up with silly amounts of military equipment and other warlike resources.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#262 Post by BenThere » Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:47 pm

It's clear the S-400 is a most formidable air defense system. Clear, also, is the need for the US to up the technology of its current Patriot offerings, which is being done. But the S-400 has not been tested in battle, operated by client states' personnel, while Patriot has. It may turn out that Israeli technology provides new capabilities for intercepting and destroying incoming projectiles.

The balance is in flux. As the only threat of incoming projectiles today comes from Iran and its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria, focus for technological improvement is directed to Iran's neutralization.

Aside from the S-400 and Patriot discussions, though, are research and development efforts to create laser-based detection and destruction of ballistic systems at the point of launch or soon after. Perhaps we'll one day witness Iran launching a barrage of missiles toward Israel and/or Saudi Arabia, and see those missiles zapped emerging off the launch pad. Stay tuned.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#263 Post by Undried Plum » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:15 pm

BenThere wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:47 pm
Iran's neutralization.
That's been the Empire's ambition for more than 40 years.

How's it going, Ben?

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#264 Post by BenThere » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:53 pm

A lot better than it was a few years ago.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#265 Post by Undried Plum » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:05 pm

But the people of Iran are still independent, Ben.

The 40 year Project doesn't seem to be going well at all.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#266 Post by BenThere » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:16 pm

I don't recall Iranian independence ever being at issue. I do agree, though, that Iran's 40 year project isn't going well at all.

Back in 1979 it was a thriving country, emerging as a soon-to-be 1st world state. Then the theocracy took over. As an aside, I finished USAF pilot training at Reese AFB near Lubbock, Texas in the Spring of 1977. The buzz on the base at the time was that the Shah's son, Reza was coming to train there. I think he completed his year-long training, but didn't go home again.

I think Iranians today, on the whole, would tell you things were better for them in those days.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#267 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:21 pm

BenThere wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:16 pm
I don't recall Iranian independence ever being at issue. I do agree, though, that Iran's 40 year project isn't going well at all.
Having had the pleasure of training Iranian officers I can assure you that I suspect your arrogance in these matters is flawed!

Are you the joker American? I have met so much better in the officer class in America than you. You really are not for real are you?
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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#268 Post by BenThere » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:56 pm

I sense that you aren't extending the hand of friendship while I fail to see where I have demonstrated the arrogance you attribute to me. I think you are making some assumptions about me that have little basis and therefore I am disregarding your offensive post.

All the best,

Ben

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#269 Post by John Hill » Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:29 pm

BenThere wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:16 pm
I think Iranians today, on the whole, would tell you things were better for them in those days.
Some might, not so sure about others...
TEHERAN, Iran, June 17 — “Nobody knows how terrible torture is and how painful it is to talk about it,” sobbed Tehrani, a former interrogator for the Shah's secret police as he faced a revolutionary court today.

Batman Naderipour, alias Tehrani, should know what he is talking about. He admitted torturing hundreds of people and murdering dozens in 16 years as key interrogator for the secret police, or Savak.

About 300 people, many with records like Tehrani's, have been tried and executed by revolutionary courts since the Islamic upheaval in Iran began. Tehran will almost certainly face a firing squad in a few days.

But his public trial has drawn more attention than most. His memory was prodigious. He recounted in excruciating detail the organization, mentality and brutality of the police services that were the underpinnings of the glittering monarchy.
Sounds just right for you Ben, a privileged few lavishly supported by oppressed masses.
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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#270 Post by Rwy in Sight » Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:37 pm

A rather unusual approach to the Saudi - US relations: Americans don't care too much about the Saudis anymore.

Most arguments sound logical but I like to have your opinions around.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#271 Post by BenThere » Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:01 pm

Sounds just right for you Ben, a privileged few lavishly supported by oppressed masses.

And the situation today is different how?

I confess, virtually all the Iranians I've known, maybe 30 or so, were exiles fleeing the theocracy. My sense is that they didn't like the Shah much, but the Mullahs have been a disaster for Iran.

As for the torture question, my sense is that much more torture has occurred after the revolution than occurred before.

For the record, I am unequivocally opposed to torture. And I think a person who has administered it, the application of intolerable pain, should receive the death penalty, but spared the agony that person inflicted.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#272 Post by John Hill » Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:08 am

BenThere wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:01 pm

As for the torture question, my sense is that much more torture has occurred after the revolution than occurred before.
That is no excuse whatsoever for the oppression and cruelty of the Pahlavi regime.
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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#273 Post by John Hill » Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:12 am

BenThere wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:01 pm
For the record, I am unequivocally opposed to torture. And I think a person who has administered it, the application of intolerable pain, should receive the death penalty, but spared the agony that person inflicted.

Is water boarding torture?
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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#274 Post by boing » Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:15 am

I give mixed reviews to the Iranians. From personal experience their military officers were arrogant dick-heads. I saw one officer make an airman crawl across the ramp on his belly while he kicked him in the ribs - the airman's crime, he had accepted some of our left-over crew rations.

In the days of the F4 their pilots were useless. We were told to strictly fly flight-plan. never evade or even turn. The Iranian pilots could not find us even then and on more than one occasion they accused us of going supersonic to evade them.

On the other hand some of the displaced, more cultured, Iranians have been some of the nicest people I have ever met.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#275 Post by Rwy in Sight » Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:33 am

boing wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:15 am
I give mixed reviews to the Iranians. From personal experience their military officers were arrogant dick-heads. I saw one officer make an airman crawl across the ramp on his belly while he kicked him in the ribs - the airman's crime, he had accepted some of our left-over crew rations.

In the days of the F4 their pilots were useless. We were told to strictly fly flight-plan. never evade or even turn. The Iranian pilots could not find us even then and on more than one occasion they accused us of going supersonic to evade them.

On the other hand some of the displaced, more cultured, Iranians have been some of the nicest people I have ever met.

.
Maybe the militaries of countries eastwards from Cyprus (Israel exempt) have an issue on how they view authority. They think being abusive and humiliating is part of their benefits package. In a non-professional context they feel more relaxed to be the warm hosts they truly are.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#276 Post by Boac » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:52 am

RiS# 270 wrote:Most arguments sound logical but I like to have your opinions around.
- I suspect we are witnessing a huge change in world order, particularly in the ME. It would help if the US didn't have a dick-head in charge who cannot sustain any position without changing it.

I believe the word is 'Watch this space'.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#277 Post by Rwy in Sight » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:41 am

Boac wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:52 am
RiS# 270 wrote:Most arguments sound logical but I like to have your opinions around.
- I suspect we are witnessing a huge change in world order, particularly in the ME. It would help if the US didn't have a dick-head in charge who cannot sustain any position without changing it.

I believe the word is 'Watch this space'.
For some reason, until we see nukes in the wrong hands and used the wrong way despite the MAD doctrine, I have a feeling that the orange guy moves in a way to impress both the domestic audience and avoid the mistakes of GW II & Arab Spring - remove a bad guy and create a vacuum to be replaced by a worst one.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#278 Post by Boac » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:50 am

Who knows? Time will tell. In my opinion a vastly over-optimistic view.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#279 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:32 am

MBS has personally lost all possible international brownie points after the Khashoggi affair - he is not in a position to demand anything. With the recent sheikdown ;))) of the aristocracy, he faces deep uncertainty within Saudi also.

A massive Saudi -Iran punchup in the Gulf with its effects on world oil supply will crash economies around the world, but will for the first time not impact the USA as immediately or badly as others. US shale oil and Canadian oil can soften the blow tremendously. Knock-on effects are likely to bring more manufacturing back home to the USA, which is what Trump wants anyway.

It is worth remembering that the USA had an official policy during the Cold War of portraying the President as a bit of a flake, as it added to the nuclear use credibility. Some would argue this is (and was) unnecessary given so many US president are flaky, including the current incumbent, but the end result is the same - everyone believes the US may go to war, or may not. In the current circumstances, that tends to limit the bellicosity of the minor players, especially in the Gulf.

Personally, I think there's a very strong element in the USA's attitude to Iran stemming from the 1979 hostage crisis. They are determined to bring down the mullahs after invading their embassy, and in the long run internationally that's very important. It was the same with Bin Laden; took decades and cost billions, but they got him.

Trump need do nothing, but it pays him to look like he might.

I think Gulf affairs will depend on who hits their brink first. MBS, Iran, Israel, Lebanon; they are all unstable internally and externally. Somebody is going to decide that a war is worth the chance with loss of power staring them in the face. I have no idea who will crack first. Saudi pulling out of Yemen will delay things a bit and would make the most sense; MBS can declare a victory and go home.

My main concern is whether Saudi has some nukes tucked away in a silo in Pakistan with their name on, I suspect they do. Taking out Tehran may be too tempting if MBS looks like losing an internal power struggle. The Saudis have no hope of winning a conventional war against a Norwich Boy Scout Troop, let alone anyone else. In general, they are lazy, cowardly f#ckers at the best of times

Nothing in the NYT is worth the paper it's written on.

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Re: Getting hot in the Gulf

#280 Post by Undried Plum » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:16 am

Good analysis, F3. :YMAPPLAUSE:

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