Getting hot in the Gulf

[Rwy in Sight]

F3 what are then the reason for the Saudis to go to war against Teheran? I could see religious reason but then again how often a leader is willing his current reign over a future one unlike a poor sucker being blown up for some rice and what it is 72 virgins? I understand you don't go to a war to loose it but still the guys in RUH might now how weak they are.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

If MBS, or anyone else, looks like losing power, then they have nothing to lose by trying something drastic. It has ever been thus.
In general, an external enemy is the preferable choice to suppress opposition to a fading regime.
The problem with islam is that sunni and shia are not sects. As far as each is concerned, the others are apostates, for which the sharia has only one sentence, death.
It's the same as the catholic church chasing heretics with the inquisition in the middle ages.
If MBS took out Tehran and a few other Iranian cities, then shia as a political power is gone, functionally, unlike if Iran attempts to take out Saudi.

Things would have to get a lot more crazy than now, however, and Saudi would have to have nukes. It's a remote possibility, but an Iranian war on Saudi and or an MBS regime collapse could trigger it.

[Undried Plum]

All that is true.

It's also the reason why Iran may have made a bad decision in not obtaining parity, at least, with Israel in nuke capability.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Maybe it's not for want of trying.

[Undried Plum]

Last night an Iranian tanker, Sabiti, carrying 582,000 barrels of Iranian crude, was struck by two missiles in the Northbound channel of the Red Sea Westabeam Jeddah. Two main tanks split open spilling oil into the sea.

Now I wonder who did that?

[Boac]

It'll be the Kurds or the Turkish, obviously. (or Biden, of course)

[Undried Plum]

Casualty is now reported as being Sinopa, not Sabiti.

There is something very odd about her track in the hours prior to the attack. It's as if she had hove to for some reason and then resumed passage before the attack which happened about four hours after sunset.

She seems to have rendezvoused with an Iranian tug while she was hove to. Very strange.

[Boac]

Any info on the direction of attack or destination after ?Suez??

[barkingmad]

I detect the stench of ordure wafting off a false flag fluttering in the eternal ME breeze..........

[Slasher]

All that is true.

+1

[Undried Plum]

Any info on the direction of attack or destination after ?Suez??

Good questions, both.

I have no answers.

Upon arrival at Suez they'll have to declare onward destination, but Turkey will certainly fill that cell of the spreadsheet and say nothing of the truly intended destination which will certainly be somewhere in the remaining part of of Free Syria which has not yet been conquered by US/Turkey/NATO/Kurdistan/Golders Green.

[Undried Plum]

I really can't make sense of the story at all.

It now seems that the casualty vessel was Sabiti. She's got two holes in her Stb side up for'ard, leaking oil. Laden, but not fully. In Ballast? Steaming SE down the Red Sea.

She went through the canal Southabout. She seems to have RV'd with Sinopa and with an Iranian tug and today was close to a notorious Iranian freighter which is hove to off Eritrea. The AIS on all of these vessels goes on and off like a Trump decision and the whole thing is most perplexing.

I've emailed a chum in the fugly building to ask what he makes of it as they famously have the best non-governmental intel network in the world.

[Undried Plum]

Definitely not sea-skimming missile hits as they always go for the centroid which is just in front of the superstructure if they are radar guided or smack in to the superstructure zone if they are IR seeking.

Looks remarkably like limpet mine damage. Rather like those ones which were blamed on Iran a few months ago.

Hhhmmm who would do a thing like that? More suspects than a Poirot plot. (but I don't think it was the Belgians)

[Boac]

As Alice said.................

[Boac]

Not quite the 'Gulf', but if the Syrian Army is going to fight the Turkish over their border incursion, are we not heading for a major problem? Didn't the Chump do well?

It now appears the 'deal' was brokered by Vlad. Nice one.

[Undried Plum]

Seemingly, she's carrying product (gasoil;kerosene;gasoline).

With Stbd tanks 1&2 half-empty and all the others full, the torsional and bending forces on the for'ard half of the hull must be excrutiating.

[Boac]

Rather ineffective above the water-line!

[Undried Plum]

If the limpets were attached while she was under way, there'd be no easy way to place them below the water line.

[Boac]

I were thinking more about stationary with all that jigging about before. If heading south through the RS why in the northbound lane?

[Undried Plum]

Sabiti is on the home-run to Freedom!

Just passing the locus of the American atrocity of IR655 off Hengham, pilot onboard and crew undoubtedly relieved to be almost home. One in the eye for the usual suspect(s).