Chaos in USA

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Well, the Sun is moving from Left to Right as viewed from the USA

[probes]

I’m waiting for the Orange One claim that he organised the eclipse and that his is the best eclipse ever

ever...sometimes... maybe! well, anyway.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Latest 'hot' US CPI numbers mean July seems to be the only remaining opportunity for the Fed to lower interest rates before the election, and maybe not even then.
Not good for Biden.

Bank of Canada has just announced it is holding rates.

[probes]

If Russia breaks through, this will be our fault. And then we will understand what we have lost. Everything that Ukraine is doing for us can be reversed. If Ukraine is defeated, we will find ourselves in a far more dangerous world. It will be a world where we can expect war in Europe and war in Asia. A world in which Russia can cut off the food to the Near East and Africa that Ukraine now supplies. A world without rules and a world full of nuclear weapons.

Opinion: Congress must let Ukraine win, say Barbra Streisand, Sean Penn, Imagine Dragons, Timothy Snyder and other luminaries

Could public opinions change something? Anything? Or won't it change the vote count anyway, therefore could be ignored?

[k3k3]

The problem is Mike Johnson won't allow a vote, no vote, no aid.

[probes]

Actually, the 'situation' really is frightening. Would the Conservative hardliners support mil aid to ruz and putin?
One wonders.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The percentage of the US population that "completely or mostly trusts the US Government" has dropped to a new low of 20%

The percentage of the US population that works directly or indirectly for the US Government has risen to a new high of 20%

[probes]

Donald Trump thinks he’s identified a crucial mistake of his first term: He was too nice.

(Time)

How Far Trump Would Go

Oh God.

[k3k3]

FFS! He wants to be an absolute monarch. I don't think I've ever seriously wished someone would drop dead up to now, but...

[Dushan]

Of course he was too nice. He should have drained the swamp, like he promised to, right away.

[Boac]

Let's hope the dumb sceptics don't re-elect a man who cannot keep his word!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Well that applies to every western leader for the last 30 years at least.

[Boac]

Indeed, but there are some idiots who think the Chump is better.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I had several chats, in the USA, with a guy who ran his own painting business.
He supported Trump (then President) not from any particular liking for him as a person, but simply because he largely did what he said he was going to do.
Much of that was getting rid of not just pointless, but actually counterproductive red tape. He gave me several examples which were clearly things that needed doing.

I think this is where the US election is.
Neither side has much liking for their own candidate (bar the idiots), but they have a strong liking for the majority of their policies, and a deep dislike of at least some of the policies of the opposing candidate.
The basic problem with Democrat policies is that they haven't worked, relative to their stated objectives. The Democrats are currently split into 3 groups:
Those who believe the BS data, ignore the contrary data (or simply can't do higher math) and think Biden's policies are actually working (at least for them personally).
Those who believe Biden's policies are doing as well as any policies could in the current world environment, and it will all work out in the end.
Those who believe Biden's policies aren't doing well, and somehow it's all Trump and his supporters fault.
The non-Democrats are split into 3 groups.
Those who think Trump was and will be mostly good for the country, despite his failings (with a wide range of how many and large those failings are).
Those who think he is mostly bad, but will fix at least some of the major problems they are experiencing under Biden.
Those who think Trump is too bad as a person to vote for.
I've picked those two sets of three groupings based on the propaganda of both camps. Each campaign push seems to be targetting one of the six groups, and either trying to firm up that view, or shift it into one of the other groups, in either case to benefit their candidate.

Not just in the USA, but I think across the western nations the difference between the main opposing parties is increasing, it's becoming more about philosophy that just general policies, and that the division between supporters is getting commensurately bigger too. That most right wing views are now at risk of being classified illegal under hate laws has almost completely killed debate. This in turn means that all surveys / polls etc are invalid because many people with contrary views aren't taking part. In many cases, the actual responses vs people attempted to be contacted is down around 2%, which is a joke in terms of validity, nevermind that the methods of contact are not representative in the first place. This is why the surveys/polls etc only publish 'of those who responded' data. My own media has admitted at several controversial events that literally no one was prepared to appear on camera, or even state their views off camera, which is a complete change from as little as 6 years ago. In at least two cases I've researched, they have subsequently tried to cover this up. The article or video gets redone in 24-48 hours, and they find someone to be quoted/speak on camera. That person is described as normal, but it only takes about a minute's digging to discover they are in some way associated with officialdom or a political party.

And here's the real kicker. All the above means no-one has any real idea what's going on, or which way things will go in the US Presidential or any other upcoming election.

[llondel]

And here's the real kicker. All the above means no-one has any real idea what's going on, or which way things will go in the US Presidential or any other upcoming election.

A bit like some of the UK elections where the Tories won despite trailing in the polls. It was put down to the fact that they had support, but people didn't want to admit it because of fear of being targeted.

One prediction for the US election is that if Trump loses, he's going to claim it was stolen from him again, even if, like last time, there is no evidence of it.

[probes]

Well, but

He would let red states monitor women’s pregnancies and prosecute those who violate abortion bans.

- how would that 'monitoring' be organised? Like in Romania when Ceaușescu was in power?
And what's the point? The life of a female fetus to become a newborn girl is sacred, but when she reaches fertile age, she becomes an incubator for the next sacred soul to be monitored by 'red states' who know better how much a woman can take or do?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The 2015 UK General Election polling errors were studied by some highly respected academics at the request of the pollsters' own Council. They were very thorough and looked at all the usual excuses - people lying to pollsters, 'shy' tories (as you mention), etc, aided by some comprehensive post-election interviewing of voters. Their conclusion was that polling by internet or phone was unrepresentative. For that particular election, it overstated left wing support by 4-6%. However, because it was unrepresentative, it is not possible to take that as a general correction factor. That said, I try to look at what 25-40 yo left wingers' views are, and correct 4-6% in the opposite direction, and that is a good rule-of-thumb.
I've posted the analysis before. Since then, there has been zero effort to go back towards personal interviewing in the street (it's deemed too expensive), and the USA's pollsters have steadfastly refused to submit themselves to any similarly thorough analysis.

Phone and Internet polls are unrepresentative. Full Stop.

even if, like last time, there is no legally admissible evidence of it.

FTFY. There's a large amount
of evidence, all of which needs further investigation to corroborate, and none of which is being allowed to be investigated further.
Same as Bush-Gore 2000. The US election procedures have so many holes in them it's unreal. Essentially, incumbents have no motivation to fix the problems, whichever party is in power.