Making provision for a global recession

A place to discuss politics and things related to Govts
Message
Author
Capetonian

Re: Making provision for a global recession

#21 Post by Capetonian » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:47 am

I decided never to invest in something that didn't make sense to me, perhaps a bit too simplistic but for that reason I won't touch Bitcoin with a bargepole.
I'm guessing that Sterling will drop when the UK leaves the EU. I'm toying with taking a punt on that. It won't cost me anything as I'll do it at midrate through my multicurrency card.

larsssnowpharter
Capt
Capt
Posts: 830
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:31 pm
Location: United Kingdom
Gender:

Re: Making provision for a global recession

#22 Post by larsssnowpharter » Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:03 pm

Back when I was but a sprog, I learned 3 important things from my grandmother:

1. How to play poker.
2. How to play bridge.
3. Put 19% of your savings in gold.

Bridge, is, of course for social purposes.
I have about 10% of our investment in gold.

If all else fails and the world goes to hell in a handcart I shall have to resort to poker.

More seriously, I don't understand half of what you guys is talking about above. The only stocks I own were part of a salary deal (oddly enough with GE).

My needs are different to most of you in that, despite my advancing years, my family is quite young. This means that I needed income.

So, without using a financial advisor, I seem to have ended up with:

Three rental properties in England. All decent, modern apartments under good management. Two in Brighton and one in Norwich.

A number of properties in the Philippines including a boarding house near an industrial area which provides a 30%+ ROI>

An almost derelict farmhouse in Puglia with a tad over 2 hectares of olives. Provides small income via the local cooperative but could be developed into a good agritourism business. No idea of the value.

Two UK pensions: Military pension plus state pension. If they stop being paid we really are in the *****.

Wife's posh tea, coffee and cake shop will go tits up so we'll take a hit on that. Leasehold so not too bad.

I have 2 toys. A DG 400 in Italy and a boat (Contessa 32) in the Philippines. The DG gets rented out and this covers maintenances, insurance airworthiness certs etc. Depreciation non existent. Two years ago, I started letting a few people charter (sounds too posh, really) the boat. This income covers it's costs.

We live relatively modestly; 3 bed house, 7 year old car and no debts.

I realize we have more income than we need and our excess goes to trust funds for the Sproglettes, school and college fees for family in the Philippines and about 25% of the running costs of a local orphanage.

If all else fails, I'll take the gold, the family and the boat out to the Island and become a fisherman/farmer.

BenThere
Chief Pilot
Chief Pilot
Posts: 3804
Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:54 am
Location: Michigan/Quintana Roo
Gender:
Age: 72

Re: Making provision for a global recession

#23 Post by BenThere » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:05 pm

I have about 10% of our investment in gold.
I keep 10% in gold, too. That is a formula for security. When gold goes up I let it ride. I never sell. If it sinks below 10% of my net worth, which grows over time, or because gold is slumping, I add to attain at least 10%. I've followed that discipline for a few decades with what I regard as very good results. Though I haven't gotten rich on it, the value of a stash of gold gives me a warm, secure feeling and I sleep well at night, even when the Dow is down 800 points in the day's trading.

I've recently found also that my gradual transition from stocks to bonds has been surprisingly profitable despite the purpose being solely to protect capital, not make capital.

I do worry still about recession, but the gold and investment-graded bonds mitigate a lot of the risk. At this point in my life I'm happy to not lose what I have and don't want to take on any speculative risk. And it's not for me but for my younger wife who will almost certainly survive me, being 10 years younger. I can live quite well on my 3 pensions, USAF, Delta and Social Security, without ever touching capital, plus the dividends from my taxable accounts.

Finally, I have a bolt-hole in Mexico, where if the worst happens I can live a happy life on about $2,000 USD/month should the need arise. In fact, when we are in Mexico it's almost impossible to spend the current income we have coming in. My wife has taken to buying gifts like home goods and such for the Mexican people (and their children) who provide services for us when we are down there. If you want to make a Mexican father who does some work for you very happy, give him a one ounce pure silver coin to set aside and save for his child. I've found that if you do that only one time, he will look out for you for life.

Last comment is that zero debt is a noble and rewarding strategy.

Capetonian

Re: Making provision for a global recession

#24 Post by Capetonian » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:21 pm

£682 fund manager: 'We bought into gold – and it's up 50pc so far this year'

To say "absolute return” funds have not been flavour of the month is an understatement. These funds are meant to provide stable gains no matter what the market conditions, but many have not lived up to that promise in recent years.

Yet some absolute return funds, such as the £682m Brooks Macdonald Defensive Capital, are bucking this trend. Its manager, Jonathan Gumpel, tells Telegraph Money why bad funds deserve what they get, why music is a good investment and how he persuades banks to create dream assets from scratch.

We like companies with solid underlying assets, rather than a promise of future earnings. If something goes wrong, we want something we can claim on, rather than promises.
What has been your best investment?

Utilico, the investment trust. We bought it cheaply, but it has given us good returns over a long period. It has very experienced managers. This time last year we felt gold was very attractive, but it can be quite volatile. I wanted to create something that would give us a good chance of future returns.

We found an investment bank, Société Générale, that would design an investment to give a range of exposure to gold, and that is up by 50pc over the year to date. Obviously, we will take only a small position in an asset like that, but I wanted to have a position that would, if gold did well, really give us bang for our buck. It was a hedge against political risk, and it worked.

Post Reply