Head of Iran's Quds Force Killed at Baghdad Airport

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I would hope, as I said earlier, that the idea is to set up conditions for an internal anti-theocratic revolution. It will be important not to destroy any more than necessary that the new regime would need. Therefore, I would expect one refinery maximum, and a lot of IRGC bases rather than general military targets.
It will be tricky to get right, but they can always go back and hit a few more after the first wave results are in.

[Fliegenmong]

A lot of Baghdad historical stuff got destroyed didn't it? Iranian air defences? Would they be old Soviet stuff? Not going to find a B2 I suppose.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Mostly Old Soviet SA-3,5,6
They have 4 SA-20 Gargoyle batteries, likely all around Tehran to defend the hierarchy.
There is a whole list of hundreds of "fully upgraded" Iranian built copies of SA-10 era stuff, but how many they've actually built, have operational and are trained on is unknown - probably very few.
They have F-14s, but the last estimate I saw is that only 2 are serviceable with the rest robbed for spares.
If the Yanks just use B2s then they probably will get in and out fine.
If the US takes the gloves off, then the entire system will be smoking holes within 2 days, I would guess. Target practice for ARMs.

[boing]

Sorry Fox, we were typing at the same time.

Iran's largest oil export terminals are on islands off the coast with the largest one being on Kharj Island towards the northern end of the Gulf, they are totally indefensible. Once the Naval and Air Force bases at Bandar Abbas are neutralised the oil terminals are a simply solved problem since a blockade is all that is required to shut them down without a shot being fired on the islands themselves. No doubt the locals would put up some resistance from the mainland but due to the horrible terrain movement along the coast and through the inland mountains could be easily prevented with minimal civilian casualties.

Once the US has maritime and air defense superiority which should take just a couple of days the oil terminals will shut down in a week almost without US feet touching the ground. It is no use living on an island with N million gallons of fuel available if you have no water or food. It would be a nice touch to isolate the islands then airdrop food and water for the residents.

The nearest large Iranian airbase to the Gulf, after Bandar Abbas is silenced, appears to be Shiraz 130 miles North East, for infantry and the Iranian Air Force going up against the US Shiraz might as well be on the Moon. I do not know how many advanced Russian air defense missiles the Iranian's possess, I believe they have some SAM 4s (I stand corrected SAM 20s)I think it is,) which are supposed to be quite good.

As Sun Tsu would have observed the Iranians have neither terrain or resources in their favour.

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[John Hill]

Boping, sounds like the boys will be home by Christmas!

[boing]

Simple logic John. Now, if a foolish group insist on pushing further inland than the gulf coast foothills this would all change. I just hope the managers don't think they are playing "Game of Thrones". You could also get something really wacky happening like the Iraquis deciding this is a good time to take over Abadan and its oilfields as they have been trying to do for a couple of hundred years.


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[John Hill]

boing I remember when we were told how the Taleban were going to be such a push over.

[boing]

John, if the operation is limited to the narrow coastal strip between the mouth of the gulf and Southern Iraq the area to be controlled is relatively small with a low population density.

The object should not be to take over the country, we have seen that this does not work. There will be a new Iranian leader, once the oil income fails the Mullahs will be removed by the population. There will be the usual revenge and bloodshed associated with any revolution but it will not involve US troops. We are only concerned with working with the eventual winner. The new leaders will need oil income and the deal for allowing the oil to flow through the gulf will be active cooperation against terrorism and cessation of interference with neighbouring countries. A prosperous stable Iran is in everyone's best interest and since, at least in my experience, the usual Iranian is a quite intelligent individual this can be achieved.

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[John Hill]

There will be a new Iranian leader, once the oil income fails the Mullahs will be removed by the population.

I think I have heard this one before too. "We'll be greeted as heroes when we enter Baghdad!", "Taleban are just a bunch of Rag-heads" and of course the longest standing of all "If we starve them they will overthrow Castro or Kim or Whomever".

This will turn out sour as you very well know..

[Rwy in Sight]

I am afraid I am with JH on that one and it reminds me of the line I read in the University: "plans last until engagement starts". The plans sound reasonable and kindly tells me a plan that beforehand didn't sound great. And then something not seen before comes along and the plan becomes useless. Do we seriously thing the nation's clergy wouldn't try to play dirty to maintain its privileger?

[Fliegenmong]

But we HAVE seen this before .... with the Shah reinstated and 40% of oil profits going into US Coffers was fine until the Iranians clued on to it. Then they got rid of the Shah, in a case of be careful what you wish for they ended up with some 'mad mullahs' ... maybe they should be left to realise their own resources....From what I gather they are a very cultured and well educated lot (Thousands are not of course), but their reources, their income. Not the West's to exploit. Get the "internal anti-theocratic revolution" of which Fox speaks, and deal with them then as an independent nation after that. OK, the 'west' (The Big Oil) Companies miss out, do you win every fight? Iran back into the international fold without the mad ones in charge...compromise, and deal with then form there!

My lovely Iranian Neighbours, He's in IT so has probably hacked my computer! Ha ha, a friend said they are probably spies....why on Earth they would want to spy on me I have no idea!!....The Chinese however...

[Undried Plum]

I see that Chump is threatening to attack Iranian cultural targets. So that's the Geneva Convention ripped up then.

Does he not understand anything about Shia Islam? They are never bluffing when they say that they will exact an act of retribution for an act of American barbarity. Never.

Now he's threatening 52 more acts of American terrorism. Has he not been briefed by his grownups what that will result in?

The perpetrators of The American War thought that technological superiority would crush the will to resist by the Vietnamese people. 6,000,000 tons of bombs later the experiment failed. In their proxy war when Saddam was a hero not a villain, a million Iranian lives were snuffed out but the Iranian will to resist The Empire was never dulled.

The man is a dangerous fool.

[om15]

This is different to the Vietnam war, there the US were trying to fight a guerrilla war using conventional tactics, they hampered themselves by politically limiting targets and using poor standard troops, particularly towards the end, they just didn't fight the war properly.
Here it is slightly different, Trump has stated that he doesn't want to precipitate a regime change, his objective is to force Iran into behaving properly, should the Iranians be unwise enough to retaliate Trump will simply sit offshore and pulverise his selected targets, the Israelis will enthusiastically join in and attack those targets within Iran that they see as a threat to themselves.

This has been a long time in the making, about seven years ago I saw the hangars on the military side of Ben Gurion with Boeing tankers being prepared, "for when we strike Iran", so they are ready. Iran has acted like a bully for years now, lets see what they do next, my guess is that they are smart enough to back off, Trump has been planning this for a while and has the resources to strike effectively and won't take much notice of sabre rattling and red flags.

He has his 52 targets lined up, and no doubt another 52 after that, it is obvious that this isn't just a spur of the moment action, it is a deliberate challenge to the current Iranian regime.

[Fliegenmong]

Shame I willl never see some of those Baghdad sites pulverised by US forces, maybe some Iranian ones either now, praying for the familys of my Iranian neighbours, and their familys that have lived in the US for over 45 years,..really a sad situation , hoping I suppose that their natural resources are theirs to sell, and I hope US natural resources are sold to benefit the US citizens

[Fliegenmong]

I think what I am trying to say is....if the US profits from Iranian natural resources.....we can expect to see this animosity for another 40 odd years...Why would they (Iranians) accept that? And equally how could the US not expect that hatred agsinst them if they were plundering another Countries natural resources...liberate them from the 'Mad Religious types', but you cannot STEAL from them AND expect their respect!...how would that work if someone did it to you??

[ian16th]

B2s out of Diego Garcia sounds about right I would think Fox.

This might be a problem!

Can the UK/US simply ignore the court?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Chagos Islands has been the most disreputable thing in the UK's record for a long time. It's naked colonialism that clearly breaks every international law. The only option is to ignore it, because they have no argument, which is what has always happened both in the UK and abroad.
The simple fact is that it's a perfect base for the US, worth at least 3 carrier battle groups and a thousand times cheaper.
The USA would rather see the UN die than lose it. I think the UN know that.
So, no, I don't see the UK doing anything.
Frankly, I think the UN is going the way of the League of Nations, and for the same reasons. It's got 10 years tops, possiby a lot less.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Manda Bay Airfield in Kenya, up near the Somali border, has been attacked by Al-shabaab in a dawn raid.


https://www.google.ca/maps/place/2%C2%B ... d40.896501
Two aircraft (including a US SOCOM Dash-8/Q200 elint aircraft) and two hangers destroyed.
Casaulaties unknown, Al-Kebab claims many, US Africom says doing a personnel count, maybe none.
Al-Kebab is claiming it's part of it's Jerusalem campaign.
I'd guess this is too tenuous a connection to blame on Iran without direct evidence, though the timing is clearly suspicious.
I would guess Trump will authorise a direct strong response on Al-kebab to discourage other Islamic terror groups from similar ideas, probably within 48 hours.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iraq-parl ... -1.5415508

Iraqi Parliament has just passed a resolution asking the Government to end foreign troop presence. Resolutions are non-binding on the Government, but the Iraqi PM has been asking for such a resolution.

I would guess the NATO training mission, currently suspended due to the security situation, will start planning a withdrawal pretty sharpish. I would be surprised if this was an unexpected development for the US, and that Trump will respond likewise. Bringing the troops home has been a major campaign promise. The Iraqis asking for it is perfect cover for whatever happens afterwards. I don't see how Trump loses by complying, and he loses an awful lot by not doing so.

[boing]

The problems we see in Iraq are due to the US incompetently replacing the Saddam government. Hell, there are still parts of Iraq that have not had electricity supplies reliably replaced since Desert Storm. Saddam provided schools, hospitals, working infrastructure and the great US destroyed all of this and despite its supposed technical prowess has been unable to replace it. No wonder the locals are POed., the situation would be much different if they had a good life. Immediately after taking over in Iraq the US should have replaced the infrastructure and given the Iraqis their lives back but no, the bloody Hawks had to do this on the cheap. Did we learn nothing from German and Japanese post-war aid?

If you are going to invade a country for anything other than Lebensraum get in, achieve your aim and limit your exposure. What if we had never moved further North than Basra in Iraq, by turning off most of the oil exports we would have been able to dictate to Saddam, what if we did nothing other than take over Kharj Island in Iran, we would be able to dictate to the Mullahs. OK, not that simple but the point is that with both Iraq and Iran it is not the oilfields themselves and the capital cities that we need to control but, ultimately, only the last few feet of pipe that connects the oil pipes to the foreign tankers. Both Iraq and Iran need to export oil to survive and we can control this flow of oil by occupying the minimum of real estate which makes the occupied area easier to defend and reduces the opportunity for friction with the locals.


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