Trying to figure out this market

[BenThere]

This week has been tumultuous, and correction parameters have been established. Where it goes from here? Who knows?

I've been a bit shaken by today's movement in precious metals, where I try to maintain approximately 10% of my net worth. Does that portend a rally in equities or something far more sinister? I'm standing pat for now, knowing from history that the worst time to sell is when you most want to. But the moment I perceive that President Trump will lose to any of the Democrats on offer or that the Senate might flip to Democrats, I'm bailing to cash and hard assets like productive land and gold.

The bond side, right now about 40% of my assets has done OK but the equity side has taken a significant hit this week. I rely a lot more on the dividends than I do on valuations and so far, the dividends have been largely holding up.

To me the black swans on the horizon are Covid-19 and the potential implosion of China's economy, the impact of that on the world's leading economies, the prospect that a Socialist could be elected president of the US, and perhaps the disintegration of the EU.

Corrections are a normal, if uncomfortable, part of the business cycle, and if they stay corrections and not worse, are ultimately healthy. I'll feel a lot better, though, if this swoon turns V-shaped in the next week as the last several mini-panics have done.

[Pontius Navigator]

I'll try and be brief: Chinese supply chains broken will impact much global industry. However a UK textile factory has reopened.

Secondary impact will be in tourism. Providers - hotels, airlines, cruise companies will lose primary revenue. Travel agencies will lose commission and fold. The upside is tourism money will remain in the hands of consumers.

Lots of people will lose jobs but lots of people will retain money.

[Capetonian]

The above illustrates the need for a diverse portfolio.

[Pontius Navigator]

Cape, generally true but at the moment the market is illogical. Things that shouldn't go down are going down.

As Ben says, as long as dividends hold up. Dividends obviously depend on income. My aviation and cruise shares should go down but my telecom and generator shares should even rise. Banking may take a hit from reduced trade and insurance too. Pharmacy should rise.

Previously as one set rose the other dropped. Now investors are being illogical.

I had set up my next set of buying before the crash.Those shares have not changed hugely.

[Alisoncc]

PN you may not be aware that the status of the US with regard to coronavirus is totally unknown, irrespective of what Trump says. Apparently the tests distributed by their CDC - Centres for Disease Control were faulty. See Coronavirus thread in Sick Bay. In that situation I would be panicking. Would I ever.

PS. Don't tell Ben, he will be convinced its a leftist plot.

[Boac]

We've already had some buffoon in the White House (choice of several..) stating that the reporting of the Virus in the US is all a Democrats' plot to weaken the chosen one.

[Pontius Navigator]

PN you may not be aware that the status of the US with regard to coronavirus is totally unknown, irrespective of what Trump says. Apparently the tests distributed by their CDC - Centres for Disease Control were faulty. See Coronavirus thread in Sick Bay. In that situation I would be panicking. Would I ever.

PS. Don't tell Ben, he will be convinced its a leftist plot.

Ignorance is bliss. Pb injection is probably a greater hazard than catching Covid virus.

[BenThere]

PS. Don't tell Ben, he will be convinced its a leftist plot.

That's what I do, Allison, maintain my guard on Leftist plots. I searched the menu for 'Sick Bay' and couldn't find it. Do you have a link? If so I'll have a look. I'm open minded you know.

If you have a spare moment, review the usage of 'its' and 'it's'. Five minutes of study will enhance your erudition by a percent or two.

[Alisoncc]

Dear me, a pedant on grammar, but lacks the skills necessary to navigate the Forum or to spell my name correctly. Tut Benjie !!

See here viewforum.php?f=36

Alison (one "L")

[BenThere]

Sorry, Alison. If you review my previous posts I've spelled your name correctly. My vision isn't what it once was, 20/10, and I thought I saw two, rather than 1 'l'. Mea Culpa. Can you forgive me, even though I'm conservative?

[Alisoncc]

You're welcome Sir. We're a fun and forgiving crowd here. The reference I referred to related to the failure of the coronavirus testing kits distributed by the US Centers for Disease Control. S Korea had tested some 64,000 whereas the US only 450 plus minus. Hence how few found.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has shipped testing kits to 57 countries. China had five commercial tests on the market 1 month ago and can now do up to 1.6 million tests a week; South Korea has tested 65,000 people so far. The U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in contrast, has done only 459 tests since the epidemic began.

The rollout of a CDC-designed test kit to state and local labs has become a fiasco because it contained a faulty reagent. Labs around the country eager to test more suspected cases—and test them faster—have been unable to do so. No commercial or state labs have the approval to use their own tests.

The problems have led many to doubt that the official tally of 60 confirmed cases in the United States is accurate. “There have been blunders, and there could be an underlying catastrophe that we don’t know about,” says epidemiologist Michael Mina, who helps run a microbiology testing lab at Brigham and Women’s Hospital. “It’s been very complicated and confusing for everyone with almost no clarity being provided by the CDC.”

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02 ... on-improve

[BenThere]

That's alarming. I'll be watching for accelerating reported infections. To date the impact on the US has been relatively subdued. Fingers crossed it stays that way.

[Ex-Ascot]

Our portfolio of managed funds is very diverse and only medium risk. In the last week we have lost enough to go on a coronavirus world cruise.

[Pontius Navigator]

Ex-A, hang on a week and you could probably take friends too, apart from the lack of ports to visit.

[barkingmad]

Alisoncc, maybe Ben thought you were a C130, Electra or Orion engine?

[Pontius Navigator]

Our portfolio of managed funds is very diverse and only medium risk. In the last week we have lost enough to go on a coronavirus world cruise.

Buy one get extra 14 days free.

[Woody]

Looks like that Saudi Arabia is trying to screw Qatar by manipulating the oil price

[Pontius Navigator]

IMHO if you consider stocks in broad sectors - say commodity, consumer, and utility, commodity will be immediately impacted as material requirements are reduced. Consumer stocks trading in essentials should recover more quickly. Utility stocks fall into the essential category and should be able to sustain dividend and recover faster.

I shall continue regular buying in most sectors except travel.

I do have one stock that I bought in error, repays in share buy backs, and holds its value. It even increased value today.

[TheGreenGoblin]

Markets in free fall this morning.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live

[barkingmad]

Let’s hope it doesn’t inspire an outbreak of Market Traders in free fall past the fifth-floor windows, as per the stories of the 1926 Financial Crash?

It might be difficult to find underwriters to insure against being hit by a falling stockbroker.