Coronabollocks..

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TheGreenGoblin
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Re: Coronabollocks..

#681 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:30 pm

Undried Plum wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:17 pm
This coronavirus is quite different to the American Flu one of 1918/19.

This one tends to kill people whose immune system is already compromised in some way.

The American Flu tended to kill the healthiest in society. It did so by corrupting the body's immune system and causing that system to attack the body itself. Very old and very young people tended to be largely unaffected by it.
Quite right although statistically significant numbers of patients in older age groups/cohorts were known to die as well due to the same cytokine storm that killed the younger age groups/cohorts. I wonder how the woolly minded statistical methodology been proposed by some here would have worked for those cases.

To those who disagree, my stock answer to this is take up your argument up with your local institute of actuaries or the equivalent of the ONS.

There is even a heavy metal song that sums up the situation if you take that flawed kind of thinking to its statistically meaningless conclusion.



Excuse the reductio ad absurdum but that is what it takes sometimes.

Comorbidity - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comorbidity

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-co ... ity-rates/
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Re: Coronabollocks..

#682 Post by AtomKraft » Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:39 pm

Why can we not just accept the lockdown, asks boac above.

How about "because it's going to bankrupt our country and likely tip the entire world economy into a depression".

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#683 Post by Boac » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:13 pm

because it's going to bankrupt our country and likely tip the entire world economy into a depression
do I detect panic in the pandemic? Atom - in the UK we are two weeks into a lock-down which needs 3 weeks to assess whether it has been successful or not. In the USA, because the incompetent know-all screwed up, it could last a lot longer. However, it looks as if Kushner has his mitts on loads of money for the re-election campaign and no oversight of process. Yes, that's Kushner, business advisor to the Chump. NIce one, Chump - credit where credit is due. Fooled them all there.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#684 Post by Undried Plum » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:35 pm

TheGreenGoblin wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:14 pm
Sorry to see that Lord Bath has died due to the Coronavirus.
I'm sorry to hear that.

I had dinner with him once. He was great fun. Surprisingly intelligent for an aristocrat.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#685 Post by PHXPhlyer » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:40 pm

UP:
Enduring Arab prison, dining with aristocracy, animal od-gyn...
Truly a man of many facets.

PP

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#686 Post by Seenenough » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:46 pm

Boac wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:13 pm
because it's going to bankrupt our country and likely tip the entire world economy into a depression
do I detect panic in the pandemic?. Atom - in the UK we are two weeks into a lock-down which needs 3 weeks to assess whether it has been successful or not. In the USA, because the incompetent know-all screwed up, it could last a lot longer. However, it looks as if Kushner has his mitts on loads of money for the re-election campaign and no oversight of process. Yes, that's Kushner, business advisor to the Chump. NIce one, Chump - credit where credit is due. Fooled them all there.
Back to trashing Trump again

The mess from world bancrupcy will likely result in many more deaths also.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#687 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:47 pm

Undried Plum wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:35 pm
TheGreenGoblin wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:14 pm
Sorry to see that Lord Bath has died due to the Coronavirus.
I'm sorry to hear that.

I had dinner with him once. He was great fun. Surprisingly intelligent for an aristocrat.
I met him at a party held at Gosford House some years back. A really nice chap as you say!
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Re: Coronabollocks..

#688 Post by Seenenough » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:52 pm

Gob...Actuarial conclusions and predictions are not always correct and nor are those of Accountants and Lawyers ,some even with the added qualification of being MBA's also.I have had first hand experience with quite a large issue while I sat on the Board of a Listed company of the JSE.

There is a book out there called "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb you might want to read it but if you are going to read it ,be prepared as it is quite a technical bit of literature.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#689 Post by Undried Plum » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:56 pm

I very rarely dine with aristocracy. Most of them, in my limited experience, are thick as *****.

And I was only in pokey once. Sure, I'm an ex-con, but never a lifelong criminal. I always have a spot of bovver explaining that to the Septic INS when entering that benighted land.

As for Lord Bath, I was at the time 'dating' one of Pan's People. One of her co-People was the hostess of that dinner in Chelsea and was one of his 'wifelets'.

He was very funny, with an impish sense of humour, and extraordinarily intelligent. A really good human being. I'm sorry to hear that he is no more. I only know one other aristo like him, and I greatly hope that he doesn't fall prey to the Corona thing too.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#690 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:05 pm

Seenenough wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:52 pm
Gob...Actuarial conclusions and predictions are not always correct and nor are those of Accountants,Lawyers ,some even with the added qualification of being MBA's also.I have had first hand experience with quite a large issue while I sat on the Board of a Listed company of the JSE.

There is a book out there called "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb you might want to read it but if you are going to read it ,be prepared as it is quite a technical bit of literature.
I have read Mr Taleb's books and given that my current business interest and income is predicated on understanding mortality by cause, risk analysis, experience analysis etc. coupled with the fact that I spend almost every working day having to collaborate with actuaries I feel somewhat up to the task of assimilating Mr Taleb's ouevre seenenough. ;)))

While we are on this subject I recommend Reckoning with Risk by Gerd Gigerenzer.

I also recommend The Maths of Life and Death by Kit Yates who is the co-author of the Imperial College paper that prompted the UK government to change tack on containment measures here in the UK.
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Re: Coronabollocks..

#691 Post by Undried Plum » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:18 pm

Seenenough wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:52 pm
There is a book out there called "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Not only "out there", but right here on a bookshelf in this study from which I hunt and peck the keyboard which has so many wornout lettering on the keys.

A brilliant book.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#692 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:28 pm

Undried Plum wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:56 pm
I very rarely dine with aristocracy. Most of them, in my limited experience, are thick as *****.

And I was only in pokey once. Sure, I'm an ex-con, but never a lifelong criminal. I always have a spot of bovver explaining that to the Septic INS when entering that benighted land.

As for Lord Bath, I was at the time 'dating' one of Pan's People. One of her co-People was the hostess of that dinner in Chelsea and was one of his 'wifelets'.

He was very funny, with an impish sense of humour, and extraordinarily intelligent. A really good human being. I'm sorry to hear that he is no more. I only know one other aristo like him, and I greatly hope that he doesn't fall prey to the Corona thing too.
I trust you are working on your memoirs UP. :)
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Re: Coronabollocks..

#693 Post by CharlieOneSix » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:38 pm

Scotland's Chief Medical Officer has saturated our TV screens with her adverts " Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives" and then during this and last weekend she drives with her family for more than an hour from Edinburgh to East Neuk to her second home and stays overnight. Talk about hypocritical! At least she has now been removed from our screens in future briefings and adverts.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5 ... -lockdown/
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Re: Coronabollocks..

#694 Post by llondel » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:39 pm

Undried Plum wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:35 pm
TheGreenGoblin wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:14 pm
Sorry to see that Lord Bath has died due to the Coronavirus.
I'm sorry to hear that.

I had dinner with him once. He was great fun. Surprisingly intelligent for an aristocrat.
I never met him but I did meet his father. Way back when, there used to be a big amateur radio rally on the grounds of Longleat every year and it was not unknown for him to put in an appearance.

Seenenough

Re: Coronabollocks..

#695 Post by Seenenough » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:40 pm

Great-Not many have read publications of this nature . This publication I concluded,broadly holds that not all outcomes can be predicted because the chance a random occurance,big or small,can not accurately be calculated. Many times when these unpredicable random events occur they very often have the effect of completely turning over the whole and carefuly constructed apple cart.

Thanks for your reading suggestions-I might take you up on them ,even though I am no longer involved in such an enterprise.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#696 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:49 pm

Seenenough wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:40 pm
Great-Not many have read publications of this nature . This publication I concluded,broadly holds that not all outcomes can be predicted because the chance a random occurance,big or small,can not accurately be calculated. Many times when these unpredicable random events occur they very often have the effect of completely turning over the whole and carefuly constructed apple cart.

Thanks for your reading suggestions-I might take you up on them ,even though I am no longer involved in such an enterprise.
Yes, I thoroughly enjoyed his ideas, while not necessarily agreeing with everything he was proposing. His notion of a black swan event (or events) was certainly a challenge to our very human desire to prognosticate like turkeys until Christmas first arrives for us.

If you have the time, I thoroughly recommend the other two books, which are accessible but, like Mr Taleb's stuff, not simplistic while being good reads too :-bd
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Re: Coronabollocks..

#697 Post by Rwy in Sight » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:55 pm

UP yes please give us some more details of all those magnificent stories of your life

BOAC, please keep in mind that the UK government is much more frank to its citizen than most

Ben, regarding truth and Republicans: one reference: Irangate - not the most honest government of an excellent (people disagree with me) President

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#698 Post by Jetex Jim » Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:26 pm

A rather pertinent look at the current situation.

Persuading working people to vote against their own best interests is the primary focus of conservative politics.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#699 Post by Boac » Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:29 pm

Apparently the hapless/stupid/careless/arrogant - pick any or all - Scottish 'Health Minister' is now suffering doctored videos that she had put out as public service broadcasts. Serve her right for telling everyone but herself to 'stay at home' and thus giving all that extra spare time for people to enjoy themselves with the videos.

I cannot find any on line at the moment - does anyone have any links?

For the many who haven't a clue what I am on about, here is a link https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... calderwood

She has now been 'withdrawn' (but not yet resigned - she has the full confidence of Sturgeon, normally the first step to resignation.... :)) ) as the public medical face of the Scottish government and will not be making any more videos :))

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#700 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:36 pm

What is it about politicians and their advisers that they seem terminally incapable of taking the advice they are dishing out to "lesser" folks like us vide. this Scottish bint and our PM who is still recovering, having, most likely infected, his pregnant fiance who has tested positive for the virus?
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