Coronabollocks..

[Dushan]

The difficulties of trying to work out how dangerous the virus is, is illustrated by the running banner under my local TV news. Yesterday Figueras town had 1800 cases. Today 636. Really?

The more you test the more you'll have with unreliable, high false-positive test.
You want to get rid of COVID? Stop testing.

[Pontius Navigator]

Talking of which, anyone seen BM today? Missing since Friday

[Boac]

This is very puzzling - today a 'REACT' group (Imperial College) reported that rates of infection have not been affected by the lockdown and are still rising.

This is in complete contradiction to Tim Spector's report of 21 Jan which says rates are indeed falling and are around half the New Year peak. In addition he says the average 'R' rate across the UK is 0.8. That would be excellent news. Certainly the recorded infections on his app in my area have fallen significantly in the last week or so.

Could it be that this 'REACT' group is using data from the ONS which is always about a week in arrears?

[John Hill]

You want to get rid of COVID? Stop testing.

I think that is arrant nonsense!

[OFSO]

Municipal lockdown here enters third month, police roadblocks between towns, all very strict, but cases are still rising.

[Undried Plum]

1,600 dead of Cv19 yesterday in the UK.

1,500 the day before yesterday.

1,300 the day before that.

How many more do you want?

[Mrs Ex-Ascot]

I hope for everyone's sake that the UK government hasn't made a huge mistake, but what this professor has to say is worrying; https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... EWELL.html.

[OFSO]

UP.....Rather than quoting dubious statistics (I'm not querying the number, just the causes) what do you suggest doing about it?

[Pontius Navigator]

1,600 dead of Cv19 yesterday in the UK.

1,500 the day before yesterday.

1,300 the day before that.

How many more do you want?

Actually
1,300 dead yesterday
1,800 dead before that
1,600 before that
600 before that

BOAC
I agree about Tim Spectre's figures but they are at least 4 days old and the Midlands almost 2 weeks.

Going to the Government site they show infections down 23% and deaths up 14% over last 7 days. Their R rate is also a week old. Similarly our rural stats are a week old.

The death rise over 28 days will naturally continue to rise after the case rate falls.

[Boac]

This is a link to Tim Spector's blog of 21 Jan mentioned in #3763



PN This from the REACT study:
"Based on swab tests on almost 143,000 people in the community between 6th and 15th January, the study has also picked up early signs that infections may have begun to rise at the national level, with R estimated at 1.04."

I still believe Spector is more up-to-date.

[John Hill]

Municipal lockdown here enters third month, police roadblocks between towns, all very strict, but cases are still rising.

I expect the cause is that people are trying to cheat the system.

[OFSO]

You can't 'cheat the system'. Police on every roundabout, checking where you are from. OTS fines.

[OFSO]

Frankly I'm surprised that in the UK Death Certificates don't come with Cov-19 preprinted as cause of death.

Heart-rending scenes from a care home on breakfast TV this morning - but did anyone bother to film inside care homes BEFORE the pandemic?

[John Hill]

You can't 'cheat the system'. Police on every roundabout, checking where you are from. OTS fines.

Well then how do you suppose the disease is spreading if everyone if observing the rules regarding isolation? Are there no isolation measures in place where you are?

[OFSO]

1) no idea
2) yes

[Pontius Navigator]

I see it's all in a word. Our lock down may be eased when everyone is offered the vaccine.

NHS and Royal Mail could sort that out in a week. What b****y use is it offering it?

[OFSO]

Total lockdown to residence recommended here by former President. Persons only able to leave house for essential purposes. Immediately denied by government as "subject not on the table".

[OFSO]

BBC: UKs R number at lowest for months between 0.8 and 1.0.

[PHXPhlyer]

Vaccine in my area is being offered by both the State Health Dept. and County Health Dept.
County just announced that second doses could not be guaranteed by recommended date nor that the second dose even be the same vaccine as first dose.
WTF?

PP

[boing]

a) There is no reliable rapid coronavirus test. Full stop. This fact is grossly distorting pandemic statistics. Even the inventor of the tests warns that it was never designed for routine testing.

b) As has been confirmed by several posters here there is no direct and reliable proof that lock downs actually work. They are worth trying on the basis that we have no better ideas but there are disturbing examples that disease spread is not greatly effected by lock downs. JH's post #3774 and others.

c) Real world vaccination effectiveness is in question and the delayed second shot will be used to hide this fact with .gov saying they had to follow this policy and the manufacturers saying that the vaccine did not work well because of this policy. No one has acknowledged the real elephant in the room, although the vaccine may provide individual protection against the effects of the infection it does nothing to prevent transmission by the protected person.

d) Politicians should never be involved in real time health crisis management without expert baby sitters whose advice is taken seriously.

e) Despite a year of panic I, personally, do not think we really, deeply, understand the way the infection spreads or even how it really effects the human body. Our knowledge is really quite superficial and we are spending far more time and effort fighting the problem than understanding it which may, in the end, have been a low payback decision.

.