Coronabollocks..

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Boac
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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3801 Post by Boac » Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:16 pm

boing wrote:credit cards which swap hands probably billions of times a day.
Must be an American thing - my cards haven't 'changed hands' for getting on for 5 years.
We must keep checking our 6 and accept that the bug will evolve but when we see the change we need to properly evaluate its effects.
I think we do?

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3802 Post by boing » Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:47 pm

we need to properly evaluate its effects.
With the "Kent" variant we found it because the UK has excellent capability. What chance would other countries have to identify a new strain before it was firmly established?

It was decided quite quickly that the Kent strain was more infectious but we are still not absolutely sure what its other effects may be and it is still being conjectured if vaccines will be effective since we have no scientific evidence yet.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3803 Post by John Hill » Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:31 am

OFSO wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:51 pm
Have you banned French tourists?
Two weeks of managed isolation on arrival in NZ, French or not.
Been in data comm since we formed the bits individually with a Morse key.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3804 Post by OFSO » Sat Jan 23, 2021 5:47 am

Just mentioned our Gallic brothers since they are free to cross the border with Spain and drive where they will, while we are locked down to our own municipality. With a total incomprehension of distancing and vaccination, rightly or wrongly they are regarded as Typhoid Marys.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3805 Post by Pontius Navigator » Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:38 pm

The order bans anyone in parts of the Yau Tsim Mong district, where cases have surged in recent days
Well that nails the Chinese lies

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3806 Post by OFSO » Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:19 pm

"While testing Covid Tests in laboratories gives good results, in practice, accuracy is likely to be lower. A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) study at University of Wisconsin, for instance, found that the method missed 20 percent of positive symptomatic and 59 percent of positive asymptomatic cases among students and staff. Those who were negative, on the other hand, achieved 99% accuracy. "

So much for basing containment on the result of testing in the field.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3807 Post by Boac » Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:26 pm

Best not to bother, then, OFSO?

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3808 Post by OFSO » Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:37 pm

We always tested negative despite having had it last February. Friend L in Barcelona who did have it last summer continued to test positive for months after she recovered. Finally negative. Her husband and daughter always tested negative during this time. They dined with us three weeks ago. Husband now tested positive, wife L and daughter negative.

Are we rushing off to get tested? Nope. With accuracy figures like that, what's the point. And the authorities in Catalunia agree. No matter whether tested positive or negative, after having a test you have to quarantine for 14 days just in case!

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3809 Post by boing » Sat Jan 23, 2021 4:18 pm

If it was a simple matter of an individual being inconvenienced for a couple of weeks inaccurate testing would not be a big issue. It is a big issue when whole communities and economies are put at risk by restrictions based on bad data. Think about it, would you as a pilot dispatch on a 14 hours trans-Pacific flight based on the TV weather channel?

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3810 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Sat Jan 23, 2021 4:24 pm

boing wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 4:18 pm
If it was a simple matter of an individual being inconvenienced for a couple of weeks inaccurate testing would not be a big issue. It is a big issue when whole communities and economies are put at risk by restrictions based on bad data. Think about it, would you as a pilot dispatch on a 14 hours trans-Pacific flight based on the TV weather channel?

.
Not having a go at boing (for once)... ;)))

I shouldn't come here, because stupidity infuriates me. On whose say so is the current testing data in the UK "wrong"? OFSO? Who?
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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3811 Post by boing » Sat Jan 23, 2021 5:54 pm

So GG, do you think this Doctor is stupid? Your blanket judgement shows your lack of precise thought.

There are hundreds of assessments of CV tests, most are generalisations and very few venture into actual numbers.
According to Daniel D. Rhoads, MD, section head of microbiology at Cleveland Clinic, there are a couple of ways to detect SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Some tests look for a piece of the coating of the virus—they’re called antigen tests—and other tests detect nucleic acid (such as RNA) belonging to the coronavirus.

RNA tests are highly sensitive. “These tests can remain positive even after somebody is no longer sick and no longer shedding virus that can infect other people,” Dr. Rhoads tells Health.

Antigen tests, by contrast, are generally quick and cheap but often less accurate than RNA tests for detecting the novel coronavirus. The problem is that antigen testing is more prone to false negative results, meaning these tests are more likely to miss cases of active infection. And neither antigen nor RNA testing predicts when someone is no longer contagious, says Dr. Rhoads.
So there you have the difficulty, the convenient test is less accurate but the more accurate test is more time consuming and more expensive. The clincher which makes testing a poor basis for critical decisions is in the last sentence.
" And neither antigen nor RNA testing predicts when someone is no longer contagious, says Dr. Rhoads".
This false positive for non-contagious people inevitably distorts the infection count and can lead politically based decisions astray. Unfortunately, the way the test specimens are handled by the testing laboratory can also effect the test results because the test samples are not measured directly they are measured after dilution and the percentage of dilution effects the test results.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3812 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:01 pm

boing wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 5:54 pm
So GG, do you think this Doctor is stupid? Your blanket judgement shows your lack of precise thought.

There are hundreds of assessments of CV tests, most are generalisations and very few venture into actual numbers.
According to Daniel D. Rhoads, MD, section head of microbiology at Cleveland Clinic, there are a couple of ways to detect SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Some tests look for a piece of the coating of the virus—they’re called antigen tests—and other tests detect nucleic acid (such as RNA) belonging to the coronavirus.

RNA tests are highly sensitive. “These tests can remain positive even after somebody is no longer sick and no longer shedding virus that can infect other people,” Dr. Rhoads tells Health.

Antigen tests, by contrast, are generally quick and cheap but often less accurate than RNA tests for detecting the novel coronavirus. The problem is that antigen testing is more prone to false negative results, meaning these tests are more likely to miss cases of active infection. And neither antigen nor RNA testing predicts when someone is no longer contagious, says Dr. Rhoads.
So there you have the difficulty, the convenient test is less accurate but the more accurate test is more time consuming and more expensive. The clincher which makes testing a poor basis for critical decisions is in the last sentence.
" And neither antigen nor RNA testing predicts when someone is no longer contagious, says Dr. Rhoads".
This false positive for non-contagious people inevitably distorts the infection count and can lead politically based decisions astray. Unfortunately, the way the test specimens are handled by the testing laboratory can also effect the test results because the test samples are not measured directly they are measured after dilution and the percentage of dilution effects the test results.

.
I didn't say anybody was stupid, although sometimes I wonder... but please point me to one decently researched, peer reviewed paper, that says what you say. I am open minded, and believe in the scientific principle...

But, I want you to be right... we all need heroes, and in my mind you should be one...

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3813 Post by boing » Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:55 pm

GG, you are not doing very well on research either.

This article is interesting but rather lengthy so I leave most of the reading to you. Here is an extract:

https://fort-russ.com/2020/06/covid19-p ... aningless/
This indicates that the belief in the validity of the PCR tests is so strong that it equals a religion that tolerates virtually no contradiction.

But it is well known that religions are about faith and not about scientific facts. And as Walter Lippmann, the two-time Pulitzer Prize winner and perhaps the most influential journalist of the 20th century said: “Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.”

So to start, it is very remarkable that Kary Mullis himself, the inventor of the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) technology, did not think alike. His invention got him the Nobel prize in chemistry in 1993.

Unfortunately, Mullis passed away last year at the age of 74, but there is no doubt that the biochemist regarded the PCR as inappropriate to detect a viral infection.

The reason is that the intended use of the PCR was, and still is, to apply it as a manufacturing technique, being able to replicate DNA sequences millions and billions of times, and not as a diagnostic tool to detect viruses.

How declaring virus pandemics based on PCR tests can end in disaster was described by Gina Kolata in her 2007 New York Times article Faith in Quick Test Leads to Epidemic That Wasn’t.
Now, Doctor Mullis received a Nobel Prize for his work on PCR, is that enough for you or would you prefer beatification in addition?
The reason is that the intended use of the PCR was, and still is, to apply it as a manufacturing technique, being able to replicate DNA sequences millions and billions of times, and not as a diagnostic tool to detect viruses.
There it is. Instead of using a scalpel for our operation we are using a kitchen spoon. By its very principal of operation PCR interferes with the integrity of the sample being tested which makes it sensitive to operator technique as well as providing false positives based on disease artifacts rather than active disease itself.

But then, Dr. Mullis and the Nobel Prize committee were probably stupid, or is it the people that decided an inappropriate test, grabbed in an emergency, should decide the fate of nations were the stupid ones?

.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3814 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:00 pm

Words... what is your personal thesis boing? What do you think? The basic definitions of the problems are very simple. The solutions are not so much!

And I await the scientific papers!
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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3815 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:16 pm

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3816 Post by boing » Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:32 pm

I don't know about a thesis but I do know that at least seven major pharmaceutical companies have spent billions of dollars on producing a vaccine against CV but nobody has seemed to bother to work out how we are going to identify the virus accurately during a pandemic situation. Rule one of problem solving, define the problem.

If you want paperwork on Dr Mullis I suggest you start with his Nobel Prize and that will certainly lead you back to his various writings. It won't help you much of course because his award was for a method of commercially producing large quantities of RNAs, it had nothing to do with disease identification which is exactly the problem with the way it is presently being used.

By the way,Google prevents my VPN from displaying your videos.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3817 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:35 pm

boing wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:32 pm
I don't know about a thesis but I do know that at least seven major pharmaceutical companies have spent billions of dollars on producing a vaccine against CV but nobody has seemed to bother to work out how we are going to identify the virus accurately during a pandemic situation. Rule one of problem solving, define the problem.

If you want paperwork on Dr Mullis I suggest you start with his Nobel Prize and that will certainly lead you back to his various writings. It won't help you much of course because his award was for a method of commercially producing large quantities of RNAs, it had nothing to do with disease identification which is exactly the problem with the way it is presently being used.

By the way,Google prevents my VPN from displaying your videos.

.
So much for freedom of speech compadre.. ;)))
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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3818 Post by boing » Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:01 pm

Darned Google. It happens on Google News and YouTube. Don't need either of them. I don't think it is my computer personally that they are concerned with it's that they recognise the IP the VPN uses.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3819 Post by AtomKraft » Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:11 pm

There has to be a limit to how long you can expect younger people, highly unlikely to die of Covid, to face economic ruin in order to give our octogenarians a few more years on the state pension.

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Re: Coronabollocks..

#3820 Post by AtomKraft » Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:14 pm

Also, the biggest vaccine is the bug.
About 4 million have been given the vaccine, but many times that had the real thing and lived- many without noticing they even had it.

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