Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

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Boac
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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#321 Post by Boac » Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:18 pm

UP - you are talking about the wrong app. You are confusing it with the NHS app. This is the KIngs College/Zoe symptom tracker and it has been extremely good and accurate. Have you tried it? It is available in Scotland, the USA, Canada and other colonies

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#322 Post by TheGreenGoblin » Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:23 pm

Boac wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:56 am
I don't think the Aus model would have been acceptable to BM and his mates?
Definitely not! :)
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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#323 Post by Undried Plum » Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:30 pm

Boac wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:18 pm
UP - you are talking about the wrong app. You are confusing it with the NHS app.
Ah! I see.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#324 Post by Undried Plum » Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:35 pm

I've had a wee look at the Zoe website and I have a couple of observations to make.

First is the obvious one. Statisticians are usually very wary of giving much weight to self-selecting samples. By the very nature of a volunteer crew who have taken the trouble to download and maintain the app, they are a self-selecting sample.

Secondly, I've checked the speculative data from the Zoe website against the actual hard raw data from the NHS count of actual real covid infections in a few local counties. The first figure is current cases per 100,000 of population from 23 to 29 Oct, the second is Zoe's estimate for today 1st Nov. Judge the correlation, or otherwise, for yourself:

West Lothian 180 1,453
Falkirk 118 813
North Lanarkshire 278 2,611
Clackmananshire 131 (not enough contributors)

Note that most spreaders of the disease are asymptomatic and the Zoe figure only estimates symptomatic cases.

I think I'd prefer to pay a lot more attention to the actual data of actual confirmed cases, whether symptomatic or not, rather than the speculative guesswork derived solely from a self-selecting sample of symptomatic cases from an app.

BTW, It's also worth noting how the figures on the left side compare to the criterion of 20 cases per 100,000 of population which is the criterion for adding a country to the Quarantine list.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#325 Post by Boac » Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:33 pm

It is by no means perfect, but the correlation with the ONS figures is high.
I think I'd prefer to pay a lot more attention to the actual data of actual confirmed cases
I quite agree, but with a malfunctioning testing system - where will you get that data from?

I believe the asymptomatic numbers are taken into account in the number-crunching by assuming a percentage.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#326 Post by AtomKraft » Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:34 pm

Isn't it nice to know that our Government have complete control over the virus?

As long as we do as we are told, everything will be fine.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#327 Post by Undried Plum » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:40 am

It does seem to have worked rather well in China.

359 current cases, with a population of 1.4Bn.

They have developed and demonstrated an ability to test every man, woman and child in a city of 11 million in ten days; and more recently a city of 9 million in five days.

They don't piss about when a city goes into lockdown. The cops round up anyone found on the streets without a permit and frogmarch them back to their place of abode with a hammer and a bag of nails, where they seal the lawbreakers inside by battening their front door. Second offenders are thrown in jail for a year and a day.

Is there any enforcement of the 14 day quarantine for new arrivals in the UK from the B list? Has anyone ever been prosecuted for failing to abide by that rule?

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#328 Post by Undried Plum » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:43 am

Boac wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:33 pm
I believe the asymptomatic numbers are taken into account in the number-crunching by assuming a percentage.
I don't understand your belief.

Their website makes very clear that all their output data, including all their speculative guesswork, is of symptomatic cases. No mention or mensuration of asymptomatic cases at all.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#329 Post by OFSO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:10 am

Yes UP we know of people fined quite a lot for returning to the UK and breaking quarantine.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#330 Post by Boac » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:40 am

UP wrote:I don't understand your belief.
I did not say the KC/Zoe team were 'inflating' the figures. They are reporting the actual, leaving 'number-crunching' for others. I believe a reasonable estimate that 'number-crunchers' are using is about 20% asymptomatic. It would be wrong for the team to do so since their output is, as you say, factual.

I cannot see a better way of measuring the spread of infection - should we 'rely' on HMG figures from the fantastic 'Test and trace' - roughly 2 weeks out-of-date in a very fast moving world (and probably useless anyway)? At least the symptom reports are daily and show CURRENT increase/decrease. This is the problem which will face Wales - a 2 week lock-down 'review' on 9/11 when the data will be 2 weeks old? The NHS app only tracks positive test results, as I understand it.

We do not live in a perfect world. What would you suggest?

EDIT: To add, in an interview with Prof Spector yesterday on the BEEB he indicated that his app was already showing a reduction in symptom spread in the higher tier areas. Food for thought?

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#331 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:09 am

We are digging ourselves deeper and deeper into the *****, as we try ever more desperate measures to hold back the tide.

The average age of death from Covid is over 82 ffs. That's one year more than normal life expectancy!

The measures are more lethal than the disease!

The Worlds leaders have panicked and overreacted massively. Like lemmings, they've copied each other to try and seem in control.

Now, faced with disaster, it's a choice of admit their mistakes, or more of the same.

If we'd let the virus run its course, it would have been over by now. Certainly some more old people would be dead, but that's what old people do anyway, 100% of the time! Nobody wants to check out early, but ***** happens and these (slightly) early deaths need to be balanced against the large numbers of mostly younger people who will also be checking out early due to the Covid countermeasures.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#332 Post by Boac » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:51 am

Australia yesterday declared NO infections that day. Taiwan has had no 'community transmission' for 202 days. Neither country has 'let it rip'!

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#333 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:19 am

It's true bo, that locking down can slow the bug down, even bring it to a halt as you mention in Australia.

But we cannot lock down forever!

When the Aussies come out of lockdown, the bug will be waiting.

All lockdowns do is prolong the crisis, wreck the economy and kill a great many people who would otherwise have decades to look forward to, unlike septuagenarians.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#334 Post by Undried Plum » Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:54 am

Lockdown, in conjunction with other measures such as proper testing and contact tracing and testing again and again, most certainly does work. The Chinese have proved that, as have the Strines and others.

It's the only currently available method of Covid control that we have.

The first generation of vaccines is likely to be only partly successful, though a second generation is likely to be much better.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#335 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:04 pm

There's only one solution, and it's whats going to happen anyway, whatever we do:

Everyone gets exposed, some get ill and some die- the vast majority are either immune already, or they get the bug and get better.

Then its over, properly.

All this fannying around is just dragging it out and wrecking millions of lives- and I mean wrecking, destroying and impoverishing literally millions.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#336 Post by barkingmad » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:20 am

AtomKraft wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:04 pm
There's only one solution, and it's whats going to happen anyway, whatever we do:

Everyone gets exposed, some get ill and some die- the vast majority are either immune already, or they get the bug and get better.

Then its over, properly.

All this fannying around is just dragging it out and wrecking millions of lives- and I mean wrecking, destroying and impoverishing literally millions.
+1. Standby for accusations of wanting to kill off the old, the innocents etc, though that is exactly what the current policy has done and will continue so to do, with the deaths being Covid-initiated but without actual Covid disease being evident in those casualties.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#337 Post by OFSO » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:32 am

Lockdown does NOT work. It postpones.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#338 Post by Undried Plum » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:21 am

The Chinese has proved that lockdown, combined with proper testing, really does work and it enables a return to normal commercial life.

The ditzy dithering shown in the UK and some other parts of Northern Europe has been a failure and is destroying commercial life because they have endlessly postponed a proper lockdown and testing regime.

The proof is all around us.

This morning I heard from an insider that West Lothian's major hospital, St John's, has reached 100% capacity in its covid wards and in its ICUs. The overspill is being sent to Edinburgh's RI and to Forth Valley hospital, both of which are filling up fast.

The epidemic was almost under control until BoJo/NippySweetie opened the pubs and restaurants and schools. That banjaxed all the progress that had been made in controlling the first wave.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#339 Post by OFSO » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:04 pm

Spain had the hardest lockdown of any European country this spring. Confinement including children, inside house, one person allowed out to nearest shop, husband and wife not allowed in same car. Six weeks. Now look at the infections! Sky-high. The lockdown postponed. It did not 'work', if by 'work' creating a virus-free society is meant.

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Re: Lockup/ lockdown. How to end it?

#340 Post by larsssnowpharter » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:14 pm

Actually a REAL lockdown would work. To start in 7 days to last 30 days:

1. Shutdown everything. Schools, colleges, Parliament, supermarkets, government buildings, pharmacies, rail, roads etc etc.

2. Everyone to stay at home. No outdoor exercise, no dog walking no professional football.

3. Patients in hospitals discharged to home with necessary drugs and 30 days of pasta, rice sardines. Any not fit to be discharged to be euthanized.

4. Only movement to be council garbage vehicles going around the streets calling out, "Bring out your dead".

Properly enforced these measures would eradicate the disease in this country. Afterwards there would need to be a ban on international travel to stop reinfection.

On the other hand, we could just middle through as best we can.

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