The Great Economic Reset

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Fox3WheresMyBanana
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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#141 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:15 am

Although our major weather freeze-up is forecast tomorrow, the Provincial government here has just announced that a property tax rebate equal to the maximum 5% increase just imposed by the property tax commission will be automatically applied.
This freezes the tax at 2021 levels, as the maximum 5% increase and corresponding rebate were applied last year also.

The government has now either disallowed increases or provided subsidies on every single supposedly "independent" commission legislated to take financial decisions out of government hands.
The commissions, of course, continue in being and are fully funded.
That the proportion of individuals on these commissions who are either failed candidates for the party in government, or major donors, or have been moved to the commissions in order that their previous jobs be filled with party henchmen, is well over 75% is pure coincidence.

You'd never guess it was an election year as well.

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#142 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:43 am


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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#143 Post by barkingmad » Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:54 am

Fox3, was that one of those famous self-driving cars TPTB are trying to flog to us, or was it the UK Conservative party entry in the car rally?

It appears to navigate in a similar manner to the supermarket trolley metaphor which has been attached to that decaying political body...! =))

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#144 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:29 am

What I find particularly analogous about the video is that the crash barrier, whilst looking impressive, has actually caused an even worse accident by failing to consider a likely crash scenario*.
I think the same applies to the banking regulations, and also the credit ratings. SVB was still investment-grade rated on Wednesday, and bankrupt 48 hours later.

*I have seen an identical accident on the go-kart track at RAF Akrotiri, with the kart flipping halfway round the barrier. The driver's nickname was, it will not surprise you to learn, BC. Brain Cell. Just the one.
He was uninjured, the kart a write-off.

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#145 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:09 pm

Why don't banks go bankrupt?

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#146 Post by Woody » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:19 pm

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote:
Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:09 pm
Why don't banks go bankrupt?
Because taxpayers bail them out X(
When all else fails, read the instructions.

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#147 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:36 pm

Usually, but not always.

Yellen is effectively bailing out SVB with the money of people who have bank accounts, via the FDIC charges.
So, Americans may be paying to bail out SVB even if they don't pay taxes. Clever.

The real reason is because the court process of Bankruptcy would mean all a bank's books would be open to public view.
And this is why banks are always taken over by other banks with Government providing an effective guarantee against losses for the bank doing the takeover.
Same in every country.

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#148 Post by llondel » Tue Apr 04, 2023 3:00 am

The difference this time is that they let the bank collapse, so the board of directors and the shareholders lost out, and the money was provided to the depositors. That's how a bank guarantee should work, gives more encouragement to the shareholders to appoint competent directors to avoid anything bad happening in the first place.

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#149 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Apr 04, 2023 1:26 pm

But they provided money to uninsured depositors as well, effectively from every other bank account holder in America, so it doesn't stop careless depositors chasing yield, indeed it encourages them.
The bank had an investment grade rating 48 hours before collapse. The banking regulators thought it was fine. That general situation was the same in 2008. The rules and ratings remain easily deceivable.
How are shareholders, or depositors, supposed to know what is bad? It's Russian Roulette.

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#150 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:24 pm

Nobody has any idea what most people think, about anything.

Governments don't, the media don't, I don't, you don't.

Almost all data is obtained from online or telephone surveys, where 25% is considered a good enough response rate.
In fact, this 'response rate' is already massaged to the number of people who were contactable. It quietly ignores the people where contact was attempted, but no response at all was obtained.
In the fewer surveys where the number where contact was attempted is included, the response rate typically drops to under 8%, and is often below 2%.
Here's a graph showing responses to PEW surveys.
The valid responses are a multiplication of contact rate x response rate x co-operation rate. We can see by 2018 that this is under 2%.
https://static.cambridge.org/binary/ver ... tatus=live

The fundamental problem is summarised quite well in this academic paper:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals ... 0984F96F86
...the minuscule response rate that has become the norm today in probability samples demands caution in using this tool, especially if we suspect that nonresponse is associated with our outcome variable.

Correcting these biases in such low-response truncated surveys using postsample statistical tools may lead to colossal errors (Brehm Reference Brehm1993). Any application of postsample weights assumes we can infer the attitudes of those not responding from those who respond. However, this assumption is rarely met.

..The evidence presented here suggests that the onus is on the researcher to justify generalizations based on survey data that relies on the selective group captured in samples with low response rates.
..and they never do that.

There was a highly academic review of the poll errors in the UK 2015 election, which I have referenced before. Essentially, no post sample analysis makes up for not having a representative sample in the first place. You cannot correct for a sample which isn't representative, especially if you do not even know why it was unrepresentative.

Logically, with the introduction of laws against "hate crimes" and their usage in practice, absolutely no one is going to respond to a controversial topic where they hold a view in disagreement with that held by the Government / MSM.
Indeed, it's highly unlikely that they will respond to any survey if they hold a significant number of views opposed to the government / MSM.

And if you do not know what people's attitudes are, you have no idea how they will respond, especially in a crisis.And we all know this, as ex-military, as teachers, as team members in crucial tasks, as parents; when nobody is talking to you, it's time to get worried. Grumbling is good - people are prepared to express an opinion that's opposed to yours.
And it's no use going on one's gut instinct of people as especially politicians and the media increasingly live in their own little bubble.

Turnout at my provincial election was 18% down on last time, and by far the lowest ever. Neither the politicians nor the media have the faintest idea why. They speculated of course, but absolutely no evidence, even anecdotal, was presented to justify the vast majority of opinions offered. The people they speak to voted, and they never speak to the people who have now decided not to vote.

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#151 Post by barkingmad » Sun May 07, 2023 8:44 am

Relax guys and gals, the brave new world is approaching, you will own nothing and you will be happy!

https://rumble.com/v2ig3c0-wef-ministry ... video.html

Just you wait until your democratically elected reps vote for the WEF WHO Pandemic Treaty and you won’t havta worr6 about those boring elections ever again! :YMAPPLAUSE:

https://www.dictionary.com/e/slang/soylent-green/

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#152 Post by barkingmad » Tue May 09, 2023 11:14 am

Meanwhile, in a land far far away from Geneva, the fairy story continued with a real-life coronation in a make-believe world of royalty and faithful peasants.

The peasants even turned out in the rain to show their unbridled support, bar a few smelly protesters, for the new king and his wifey;



I don't quite see where this alliance fits in easily with his promise to the peasants that;

"“I have been brought up to cherish a sense of duty to others, and to hold in the greatest respect the precious traditions, freedoms and responsibilities of our unique history and our system of parliamentary government,” he said.

As the Queen herself did with such unswerving devotion, I too now solemnly pledge myself, throughout the remaining time God grants me, to uphold the constitutional principles at the heart of our nation.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... -to-nation

And they all lived happily ever after, until some nasty folks started digging around in the fairy garden discovering unpleasant smells... :ymsick:

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#153 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Wed May 10, 2023 10:58 am

Bud Light has been the market-leading beer for a long time in the USA.
It's previously been branded as the working man's beer.

After it went woke a month ago, sales have gone as follows:

Apr 08 -11%
Apr 15 -17%
Apr 22 -21%
Apr 29 -26%

All data vs last year.
Furthermore, other InBev products, like Budweiser, have seen double digit drops as some boycott all InBev products.

The MSM have been through their usual sequence of "it's nothing" to "you're all nazis" to "boycotts never work long term" to "" - they have their heads in the sand now, ignoring it.

Whilst one beer brand is no biggie in the great scheme of things, I think this has possibly very serious consequences, in that I think the average person has woken up to the power of their wallet.
This one isn't going away. Competing products are very little different and there's no pressing reason for consumers to come back.
Nevermind that Budweiser as a whole is still not apologising, and whose every comment, whilst they probably tick all the PR boxes, is actually annoying the average beer drinker even more*.

A reminder that Gillette took an $8 billion write-down after their toxic masculinity ad in 2019, and Gillette sales continue to decline - now over a $1 bn per year down on the pre-ad numbers (and maybe double that allowing for inflation).

The problem is that big corporations are now between a rock and a hard place. Go woke and risk losing sales. Don't go woke and get a low Corporate Equity Index score. This is basically Social Credit Rating for companies, on which topic there's more here:

https://nypost.com/2023/04/07/inside-th ... companies/

Essentially, business is rapidly becoming political.
And that means all the polarization and disengagement that is happening in politics is transferring to the marketplace.

A second factor is the effect on buying habits caused by inflation.
The average person is now becoming a lot more careful with their money.
I can remember this from the 1970s in the UK.
It does not mean that the companies with the expensive products will go to the wall. What matters is value for money.
Companies that produce cheap crap will go bust, because people won't buy it no matter how cheap it is.
And the same now applies to home delivery. Amazon's delivery company here are so bad I've almost stopped ordering, and I don't think I'm the only one, as Amazon as of this week seem to be trying a new delivery method right across North America.

Many companies have had their weaknesses covered by accessing cheap finance. That's now gone and customers are becoming both more aware of the power of their wallets as well as becoming more discerning consumers.
I expect some pretty big upheavals in the next couple of years.

*Sample size of 2 'average beer drinkers' I personally asked. However, that's probably more accurate than the average corporate survey.
That and there's a huge stack of unsold Bud Light and Bud cases in my local store as of two days ago, and the competing brands are almost gone.

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#154 Post by Pinky the pilot » Thu May 11, 2023 10:21 am

I once had the misfortune to be given a can of Budweiser. I drank it!

How would I describe it? Like making Love in a canoe. ~X(

My preference; Coopers Pale Ale. A fantastic South Aussie Beer! :-bd
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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#155 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Thu May 11, 2023 10:37 am

I use Cooper's kits to make some of my homebrew - the Canadian Blonde is popular with my visitors as well as myself, and is quite popular in the local area for homebrewers.
When my niece and her boyfriend visited, they bought Bud before daring to try the homebrew, but after one glass they then drank my entire stock over the remainder of their stay.
I will give the Pale Ale a try if they stock it.

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#156 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue May 30, 2023 11:31 am

A local city council by-election might not seem relevant to an economic crisis, but I think it's indicative.

There were 3 advance polls, a hospital vote, mobile vote, mail-in ballots, and the main election day yesterday. Weather was perfect. There were 7 candidates of every political hue.
They did everything except fill the form in for you (but doubtless that's coming ;))) )
Previous 20 years, turnout has always been above 50%, this time it was 38%. This follows the provincial elections last month which also had a record low turnout.

Because there's no point voting if you have zero faith that any of the candidates can change things for the better.

And the media aren't talking about it at all.
They used to be a check on politicians and bureaucrats, now they just take a check* from them.


Canada:check = UK: cheque. The government now provides "wage assistance" for some journalists, i.e. it pays their wages. Apparently 100% counts as assistance.

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#157 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Wed May 31, 2023 12:34 am

Bud light sales continue to drop, now nearly 30% down on last year.
Looks like a lot worse than that in my nearby liquor stores, so I expect there's some accounting shenanigans going on.
They are now trying to give the stuff away, as low as 15 cents a can in some places, and it's still not selling.
Target likewise dropping rapidly after similar marketing actions.

In the bigger picture this week, the BoE continues to get its inflation forecasts horribly wrong. At some point it needs to be accepted that they haven't a clue (or are lying).
Not that any other central bank is any better - they are all singing from the same hymn sheet.
More on modelling errors here. The comments are a lot more insightful than the article, as ever these days.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... recession/

Supermarkets are being hauled in front of governments across the western world about inflation in food prices, and they've all basically given governments the finger.
Their two favourite tricks at the moment are shinkflation, and bumping up prices hugely for a couple of weeks then offering a big discount which is still more expensive than it was before the price bump.

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#158 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:09 pm

Politicians in Quebec just voted themselves a 30% pay rise.
Parti Quebecois MPs, who voted against, have said they will only take the same rise as civil servants.
The next election is not until October 2026.

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#159 Post by barkingmad » Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:04 pm

It’s time the great man had some publicity so here is a brief CV of the one who will lead us to the sunlit uplands where we “will own nothing…and be happy”;

https://gizadeathstar.com/2021/03/ernst ... y-history/

And here’s the publicity puff for the project which will hopefully lull all of us to sleep soundly with confidence in the future… i-)

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Re: The Great Economic Reset

#160 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Jun 27, 2023 11:24 am

Great piece here by a Spanish economist.

Short version is that private business is collapsing, but it isn't showing up in macroeconomic figures because government regulation and subsidies, which cause and replace the collapse respectively, also count as GDP.
I've banged on about this before. Government is rarely productive, but it counts toward GDP.

https://www.dlacalle.com/en/money-suppl ... recession/

And this means we'll get what I said earlier, inflation will continue to increase until recession.

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