Afghanistan (where the war is over)

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#701 Post by prospector » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:53 am

\ Why should any country have nuclear weapons? anybody with any nous knows that if a nuclear war is started by anybody there are very few who would survive,
Neville Shutes book "On The Beach" shows how any nuclear conflict would likely end, and that was long before the number of countries who have nuclear weaponry proliferated. The only good thing about nuclear weapons is that the people who like to send other people to the front will not be able to sit comfortably in their war rooms many miles from danger with any degree of safety, there would be enough pandemonium to share all around.

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#702 Post by llondel » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:55 am

The concern is that they won't use them for defence. Of course, if NK tried using them against the US, they'd get rubbed out pretty comprehensively. Iran is a different issue, given that they're sitting on all that oil, but if they tried using one on Israel then I doubt the Israelis would worry about oilfields.

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#703 Post by John Hill » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:00 am

llondel wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:55 am
The concern is that they won't use them for defence.
It makes one wonder why France, UK, Russia, China and USA want nuclear weapons if not for defense.
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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#704 Post by prospector » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:58 am

You missed a couple of countries out, who also have nukes, presumably for "defence". Pakistan, and of course Israel.

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#705 Post by John Hill » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:07 am

Yes, Pakistan, India and of course Israel.

Countries that are friends of the USA are of course protected by the US Nuclear Umbrella (yeah, right). Countries that are not on the list of America's friends need nuclear weapons to defend against American attempts of 'regime change'.

Saddam did not have nuclear weapons, Mullah Omar did not have nuclear weapons, Kim Jong-un does have nuclear weapons. Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea, you can make yourself a cold kumara sandwich if you can spot the odd one out.
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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#706 Post by llondel » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:09 am

If they're all just going to keep hold of them to use in retaliation to someone else launching a nuclear strike against them first then that's OK, because they should all sit there unused. That was the principle of the Cold War, no one wanted to launch a first strike because they were concerned about the retaliatory strike, especially when the nuclear subs took over from the bombers.

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#707 Post by John Hill » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:12 am

llondel wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:09 am
If they're all just going to keep hold of them to use in retaliation to someone else launching a nuclear strike against them first then that's OK, because they should all sit there unused. That was the principle of the Cold War, no one wanted to launch a first strike because they were concerned about the retaliatory strike, especially when the nuclear subs took over from the bombers.
There is no valid reason why some countries should be prohibited from having this proven form of defense.
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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#708 Post by llondel » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:24 am

John Hill wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:12 am
There is no valid reason why some countries should be prohibited from having this proven form of defense.
It would have been nice if the US under Trump could have been prohibited because he was potentially crazy enough to use it for offence. That's the main reason for discouraging countries from having access ot the technology, the chance that they'll get a regime change and install some crazy idiot who thinks he can use the weapons and get away with it.

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#709 Post by Undried Plum » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:27 am

John Hill wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:12 am
llondel wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:09 am
If they're all just going to keep hold of them to use in retaliation to someone else launching a nuclear strike against them first then that's OK, because they should all sit there unused. That was the principle of the Cold War, no one wanted to launch a first strike because they were concerned about the retaliatory strike, especially when the nuclear subs took over from the bombers.
There is no valid reason why some countries should be prohibited from having this proven form of defense.

Sadly, the world would be a much more peaceful place if all small countries had a few dozen nuclear weapons pre-placed around America so that an instant response to American military aggression could be addressed.

Here are some of the countries which The Empire would not have bombed if such a splashback had been in prospect:

China 1945-46

Korea 1950-53

China 1950-53

Guatemala 1954

Indonesia 1958

Cuba 1959-60

Guatemala 1960

Belgian Congo 1964

Guatemala 1964

Dominican Republic 1965-66

Peru 1965

Laos 1964-73

Vietnam 1961-73

Cambodia 1969-70

Guatemala 1967-69

Lebanon 1982-84

Grenada 1983-84

Libya 1986

El Salvador 1981-92

Nicaragua 1981-90

Iran 1987-88

Libya 1989

Panama 1989-90

Iraq 1991

Kuwait 1991

Somalia 1992-94

Bosnia 1995

Iran 1998

Sudan 1998

Afghanistan 1998

Yugoslavia – Serbia 1999

Afghanistan 2001

Libya 2011

Iraq and Syria 2014 –

Somalia 2011 –

Iran 2020 –

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#710 Post by Rwy in Sight » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:04 am

In some of the later attacks the acceptance from the "progressive" parts of the political spectrum was rather warm and cheered upon (if this is the right expression).

And for one more in the very last part of the previous century, the US tried to correct the mess created by a specific European country recently unified around 1990.

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#711 Post by boing » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:29 pm

The problem with the proliferation of nuclear weapons is that it facilitates anonymous attacks, for example an explosion at a sea port by a weapon hidden amongst the cargo on a third country vessel. If you can't identify the attacker how do you retaliate?

Bomber and missile attacks are discouraged under "deterrence" because the initiator can be readily verified and this concept has obviously worked well, although frighteningly, since the cold war.


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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#712 Post by Pontius Navigator » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:24 pm

boing, that a covert weapon has not been used might be counted a rare intelligence success.

Post detonation analysis would probably identify the origin of such an attack. Post attack retaliation however could open the defender to war crime charges.

A State actor, such as Hussein, might deserve a 500 kt central heating package but what of his citizens? Can we assume they were willing supporters as were most Germans and the Japanese in WW2? A retalliation in kind might have the full support of some but that gives no right to kill the innocent citizens of the aggressor.

Our SSBN Captains have a personal letter of last resort from our Prime Minister. PM Jim Callaghan I believe said he would have ordered retaliation with a heavy heart whereas Dennis Healey who served an exceptional 5 years as Minister of Defence would not. Does the USA assume its resilience would not decapitate its leadership?

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#713 Post by AtomKraft » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:55 pm

boing.
Those WB-57s operated by NASA, and dozens of USAF/ RAF aircraft that went before them, are used to 'sniff' the atmosphere whenever a nuke is tested.
The reason that this is always done is because different types of nukes leave a distinctive radioactive trace behind them.
Subtle differences exist between different types of nuclear weapons, and these have been recorded for one specific reason.

If there is a loud bang in say, New York one day-and nobody admits to causing it, by referring contamination at the site to past sniffings, it can soon be reliably determined who lit the blue touch paper, and some missiles appropriately targeted and dispatched.

This is how it all works.

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#714 Post by Pontius Navigator » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:07 pm

AK, given boing's previous employ, I think been there, seen that.

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#715 Post by boing » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:27 pm

AK
Of course, you might be able to identify the manufacturer of a nuke by sampling but given the fact that weapons might be obtained by revolution, theft, regime change or simply on "loan" you could never positively identify the user by sampling and even if you could would that be reason for a nuclear counterstrike on some amorphous group such as Al Quaida? What would your target be?

We know that vehicles entering the US, and possibly other countries, are checked for tell-tale radiation at border crossings, hopefully ships are checked way out at sea.


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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#716 Post by John Hill » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:04 pm

If you don't know where the bomb came from just attack some impoverished country you don't like. That worked after 911.
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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#717 Post by Rwy in Sight » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:37 pm

Let me help with the last point: knowing who provided the nuclear material it is a solid base to attack them. They always have the option not to deliver the nuclear material used in the attack.

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#718 Post by John Hill » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:04 pm

Rwy in Sight wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:37 pm
Let me help with the last point: knowing who provided the nuclear material it is a solid base to attack them. They always have the option not to deliver the nuclear material used in the attack.
However we do not know how much nuclear material has gone astray, the US alone has 'lost' a half dozen or more warheads. Supposedly if just one of those warheads is now in the wrong hands they might cause a false flag explosion in Russia for example. What follows next would be anyone's guess.
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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#719 Post by boing » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:03 pm

RiS

This is an old report but I don't think things have changed much.
Pakistan would be an obvious place for a jihadist organization to seek a nuclear weapon or fissile material: It is the only Muslim-majority state, out of the 50 or so in the world, to have successfully developed nuclear weapons. Its central government has serious trouble controlling the many corners of its territory. Its security services are infiltrated by an unknown number of jihadist sympathizers; a number of jihadist organizations are headquartered there and have relations with the government. And the weapons are stored on bases and in facilities spread across the country -- possibly including one within several miles of Abbottabad, a city that, in addition to having hosted bin Laden, is home to many partisans of the jihadist group Harakat-ul-Mujahideen.
As a result of recent events there is talk of Pakistan embracing a more militant version of Islam. We should remember that it is a Pakistani, whose name I can't be bothered to find, who has worked with both Iran and North Korea on their weapons development.If an incident occurred which was found to be based on Pakistani material what should be done? Bomb Pakistan on suspicion? Risk putting a cloud of radioactive dust across India and other Asian countries to teach Pakistan a lesson?

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Re: Afghanistan (where the war is over)

#720 Post by John Hill » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:14 pm

I do not have to search for it to know the name you want is Abdul Qadeer Khan.

Do not bomb Pakistan as they are a protected Asset of the Empire and as such are 'allowed' to have nuclear weapons.
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