Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Appropriately, the original broadcast was on a Spanish late night chat show called 'Red Mice'

It looks like the requested OpSec from the Ukrainian government is working. I have pursued several claimed events this morning and found no corroborating evidence, unlike the situation up to 48 hours ago. We are just going to have to wait for reliable info. The next time that is likely to happen is when some major gains are announced by the Ukrainian government, and these would need to be things that Russia already knows about and from which subsequent strategy cannot be guessed.
As far as I can determine, the window for such announcements could be as short as now, or as long as two weeks. The possible events are the ones I have discussed over the last three pages of posts.

Off to chop firewood, but will be back if something happens.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russian tanks moving east on transporters


Confirmed. I have geolocated that to here, just east of Donetsk city
https://www.google.com/maps/@48.0429249 ... a=!3m1!1e3

Weather matches today's forecast for Donetsk.
However, this main route east out of Donetsk city also leads to Luhansk.
In isolation, this doesn't tell us much.
Speculation:
Could be redeploying troops to defend the north side of Luhansk, or anywhere in NE Ukraine up to Svatove
Could be routine return of tanks for deep repair/overhaul, and another convoy with replacements went the other way 10 minutes later.
Could be part of complete withdrawal to Russia.

Much more evidence needed

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Bohorodychne and Svyatohirsk, either side of the Siverskyi Donets river just west of Lyman, have been recaptured.

The first rains of autumn are falling in eastern Ukraine, making it much easier to track off-highway retreating and repositioning Russian forces, both from the air and on the ground.
There will be no impediment to movement yet. Probably about another month at least before the rasputitsa.

First signs emerging of how desperate the Russians are to flee - a ransacked house in recently liberated Vysokopillya where the new toilet and washing machine were not taken !!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

There are reports in the Russian media of explosions at Tagonrog air base in southern Russia.
Video being shown is often incorrectly of the attacks in Crimea, and speculation that it is a Ukrainian ballistic missile attack.
From what I can find, the explosion (just one) appears to be in an area north of the city.


The position reported seems to be 5 miles on the extended centreline for the main runway at the airbase, so I would speculate that an large aircraft has gone in shortly after take-off (wind is currently a NE-erly), and the helos are searching for possible survivors.

[PHXPhlyer]

Believed recent vid of a Russian Su-25 pilot in Crimea giving a demo of how NOT to do a pairs take-off


Drifted out (possibly after flap retraction), then accelerated stall whilst trying to get back into close??

Bonus points withheld as he didn't take out flight leader as well.

PP

[Boac]

Drifted out (possibly after flap retraction), then accelerated stall whilst trying to get back into close??

Did you mean that? Were they a display team?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

BOAC - They took off in close-ish (synchronised gear retraction), and the wingman drifted out from that position, mainly due to a pitch up just as the leader turned, as far as I could see.
He then appeared to be trying to get back to that position, overbanked, and I guess pulled too hard.
I was hoping you'd chip in, knowing a lot more about this than me. What do you reckon?

The Russian Presidential aircraft I mentioned headed to Sochi on Saturday afternoon? The Moscow Times just reported that Putin DID go to his Sochi mansion.

Ukrainian Operational Command South has confirmed surrender negotiations taking place in Kherson region. Still no idea at all of numbers.

Still nothing clear about what's happening in NE Ukraine, east of the Oskil.
It's possible the Russians are re-inforcing the cities around Severodonetsk.
If I were the Ukes, I'd stay outside the cities, and sweep round to the north of them, via Svatove and Starobilsk. A big left hook, basically.
I do not see how the Russians could supply the defence of these two towns, and the peripheral indications are that the Russians don't either, and have abandoned them.
I'd then aim to complete the encirclement of the Russian-held cities, including Luhansk, by sweeping right around at the Russian border, capturing Makarove and Stanychno-Luhansk.
This cuts off more rail and road links from Russia to Luhansk, and would allow easy arty interdiction of the remaining supply routes.
Then pin down the Russians in the cities, taking HIMARS shots at their ammo and oil storage, and await their capitulation.

This is what I said back in May, and I see no reason to change the strategy.

[Boac]

overbanked, and I guess pulled too hard.

I'd go with that guess, but I think he was just trying to follow too energetically for the speed? The 'close' bit would be just to get 2 airborne together. I actually think (from my armchair) he may have been momentarily unsighted earlier as well. Assuming he had not taken a bird or had some other major issue, pretty crass flying?

[G-CPTN]

U-toob of crash

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

BOAC

pretty crass flying?

Well, he won't do it again!

G-CPTN - The crash site shown is of a different accident, an Su-34 that also crashed in Crimea yesterday. It's been geolocated as nowhere near an airfield. Believed Red-on-Red SAM shootdown.

[PHXPhlyer]

Too bad,
So sad,
Never mind!

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Today's winner of the How Stupid Can Russian Soldiers Get Award

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Putin ordered the Russian Army to reach the borders of Donetsk Region by September 15th

"No, No! Not the eastern borders, you fools!!"

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Azerbaijan has attacked Armenia (again).
Obviously they reckon the Armenians won't be getting any arms from Russia this time around.
Turkey supported Azerbaijan last time, specifically with the tech du jour, the Bayraktar drone.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Well, the day has finished much as it started from our point of view.

No big changes announced on any front, and no confirmed clues as to what's going on.

By no means does that mean nothing has been going on, it's just that we don't know about it.

I shall be having some bubbly anyway. I reckon Putin's mob is fox uniform bravo alpha romeo

[boing]

Su25 accident.

The basic cause of the accident was a cocky formation leader, playing to the gallery, who decided to make his #2 work beyond his experience level.

It may be that the #2 was distracted trying to get the flaps up before he reached limit speed and by retracting he put himself into a stall.

.

[llondel]

Given how the #2 turned, could he have hit wake turbulence from the leader to make life (briefly) more interesting?

[boing]

Wake turbulence alone is nothing to a fighter type, just a bump and you are through it - unless- you have some other exaggerating factor such as a critical AOA or marginal speed above the stall. Of course you can always do the wrong response which makes the matter worse.

Having taken off as the last aircraft in a stream of 21 (7 vics of 3 aircraft) with 5 seconds separation between the vics. I can tell you that at that point your hands and legs are doing a St Vitus dance. Wake turbulence is continuous.

It is possible the aircraft experienced wake turbulence and the pilot countered it with too much rudder.

.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Morning!
It's all quiet on the reporting front.
Too quiet.
Like when the kids are playing in another room and it goes quiet. You know they are up to something!

[larsssnowpharter]

Indeed Fox3. Very quiet. Even the FIRMS map has been unusually quiet over the last few days.