Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

putin has just offered 6 African nations free grain.
All the nations, e.g. Eritrea, are basket cases.
However, the real aim is probably to bring those African nations who recently opted out of the Russian meeting in St P. back into the Russian sphere of Influence - "i will give you grain; the USA cannot or will not" is the message.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

UK Def Int thinks the grain situation will impact the Third World long term too.

[Boac]

UK Def Int thinks the grain situation will impact the Third World long term too.

Well, swipe me with a wet kipper! That was not too difficult an analysis.....................

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

By your command!

[Boac]

....and note the response...

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Richard Dannatt thinks that Ukraine is winning the logistics war and will split the Russians, aiming at Tokmak.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... sias-army/

So, that's two Durham graduates' opinion - we're all the bloody same

His estimate appears to be within a month from now.
I have no basis to predict a date.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Kerch Bridge has just been shut to all road traffic by the Russians.
They've also just banned any non-mil boats/watercraft from going anywhere near it.

Great bridge they've got there

..be a shame if something happened to it

..again

I suspect it is just closed to bring in a replacement span for the one destroyed on the 17th.
Will probably be fully back up and running inside a week, one side working in a couple of days.

The shipping restrictions are probably to enable a wide, weapons-free, shoot-first-and-ask-questions-later zone.

[OneHungLow]

Wishful thinking in the video title, but the interview is worth watching.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

South African President already asking for the Black Sea Grain Initiative to be reopened, noting the free stuff to other African countries.
Translation: We do not want to be under Russia's thumb.
Russia will deflect, delay, and wait, of course.

[OneHungLow]

South African President already asking for the Black Sea Grain Initiative to be reopened, noting the free stuff to other African countries.
Translation: We do not want to be under Russia's thumb.
Russia will deflect, delay, and wait, of course.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has called on the Russian President to resume the operation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative at a meeting of African leaders with Vladimir Putin on the war in Ukraine.

Source: a statement by Ramaphosa shared by the Kremlin’s website

Quote: "As we listened to your [Putin's – ed.] speech today, when you were responding to some elements of our proposals, we noted the following. In particular, you were talking about grain. We proposed to implement the Black Sea Grain Initiative, we talked about the need to open the Black Sea, we said that we would like the Black Sea to be open to world markets."

Details: The South African president also said that African leaders "did not come here to ask for any 'gifts' for the African continent".

"We understand, of course, that out of generosity you have decided to provide free grain to some African countries that are facing certain difficulties. We have great respect for that, and we are noting that. However, this is not our main goal here, it is not our main task to achieve any supplies of this nature," Ramaphosa said.

Background: On 28 July, the African Union called for the immediate resumption of the UN-brokered agreement allowing Ukraine to export millions of tonnes of grain, which was suspended on Russia's orders.

- Ukrainska Pravda

https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-africa ... GNTsVljyvu

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Yesterday, putin said that the Ukrainian counter offensive had been defeated with up to 60% losses for the Ukrainians (vs one Russian military dog with a slight limp).
Today, Medvedev says that if the Ukes did succeed (which of course they can't, since they've lost), then Russia would have to nuke them.

So, the question is, how stupid would one have to be to believe any of this?

The Pope has now chipped in asking Russia to renew the grain deal.

The Chonhar bridges appear to have been storm-shadowed again and are out of action.
The strike would appear to have been timed when the Russians were rumoured to have just fixed the last strike's damage.

Ukraine continues to hit Russian logistics depots, mostly in Crimea according to latest reports (e.g. Staryi Krym). The logistics depots appear to have been on exclusively military terrain, such as training camps.
This may be in response to local partisan action, to hide them from locals who can call in locations, or simply chance. Obviously the satellite and other recon asset intelligence being fed to the Ukes would probably make it impossible to hide any depot location for long at this time of year, especially given the Russians largely rely on brute manpower to load/unload.

[prospector]

With stupidity such as this supplying longer and longer range munitions to the Ukraine military, how long before nuclear warfare is a reality.

https://www.rt.com/news/580573-nuclear- ... aign=Email



Nuclear war no worse than climate change – Blinken
Warmer temperatures are the number one “existential threat” to the world, the US’ top diplomat has claimed
Nuclear war no worse than climate change – Blinken
Antony Blinken speaks to reporters at the State Department in Washington DC, July 17, 2023 © AP / Manuel Balce Ceneta
The threat of nuclear annihilation is no more serious than the threat of climate change, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has claimed. Blinken’s critics argue that Washington is risking nuclear war by arming Ukraine.

In an appearance on 60 Minutes Australia on Sunday, Blinken was asked whether nuclear war or climate change represented “the greater threat to humanity.”

“Well, you can’t, I think, have a hierarchy,” he replied. “There are some things that are front and center…including potential conflict, but there’s no doubt that climate represents an existential challenge to all of us.”

“So for us, this is the existential challenge of our times,” he continued, adding that this “doesn’t mean that in the meantime there are not severe challenges to the international order like Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.”

And the aggression was set up by who??

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

He never misses a cue, does he?

Week 1 War will never end, sue for peace
Week 2 It'll all go nuclear <- You Are Here
Week 3 All leaders except putin are corrupt idiots

..and repeat.

ISW notes that the Russian mil bloggers have carefully not mentioned the Chonhar bridge disabling, so the arrest of Girkin seems to have worked in controlling internal dissent.

Appears from the NASA fire map to be another Russian depot, about 8 miles east of Tokmak, up in smoke.

Nothing else of note I can report.

[Pontius Navigator]

I wonder what 'drone' hit Moscow. Could have been a cruise missile?

It is less than 300 miles from Ukraine to Moscow. It would be quite feasible to launch a missile from a Fencer at medium to high level following a popup and rapid descent.

In the good old days it was said an alerted SA2 crew could hit a closing target within 2 minutes of detection, ie a pop up.

In the case of a surprise, ie first event, its not unlikely that their air defence were caught flat footed.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Images of the damage indicate to me it was either a small drone, payload around a couple of hand grenades' worth of explosives, or the warhead did not detonate on a larger but slow drone.
What do you think?

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/30/7413431/

I think this was a small piston-engined drone of about 15 foot wingspan or less, of the same type that conducted the first attack on Moscow some months ago.
They are cheap, and they seem to be able to get a couple through each time, with the desired effect on Russian civilian awareness that the war isn't just in Ukraine.

[tango15]

Hmmmm, the Russkies will be rather unhappy about that attack, especially if they had to close Vnukovo Airport because that's the one that Putin and his cohorts use. It has a special terminal, about four times the size of the VIP one at Heathrow.

The strange thing is, that the Presnenskaya Embankment is in the centre of Moscow, and thus some distance from Vnukovo, similar to the distance between Canary Wharf (which it was built to imitate), to Heathrow, so I wonder why they found it necessary to close Vnukovo?

[Pontius Navigator]

Whatever hit that glass had to penetrate as the other panes came out in sheets.

I wonder if slow drones present problems for SAM if they are using doppler radar.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I would think so.
With a well-tuned set, a good nav in the F3 could switch between pulse and PD modes to identify slow movers.
Indeed, nabbing speeders on the A1 was a favourite hobby for them whilst yours truly was doing his "on centreline, on glidepath" routine onto RWY 16/34 at Leeming.
However, I doubt the Rooskie SAM operators have the option/skill to do so.
Also, the drones, which will likely have a low RCS due to materials, will be easily lost among the highway speeders.
We've seen this tactic with the Uke helos running up the roads numerous times on video. They stick to the correct side of the road, and for the second half of the war have been overtaking correctly, scooching over to the fast lane to do so.

[OFSO]

Feel free to shout at me, but I wonder: watching the CNN film clip I can hear cries of alarm BEFORE the explosion. As with the attack on the Kremlin where personal can be seen climbing the access ladder to the cupola before the explosion. Perfect proof that actually Ukraine are the agressors...

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Do you mean this one?

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/0 ... mw-vpx.cnn

Sounds like a kid, and the cry is only a second before impact. Maybe he saw a slow moving drone?