Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[llondel]

took place after naval officers leaked top secret details to a partisan resistance group after they hadn't been paid.

If said naval officers were in the meeting, does this qualify them for a Darwin Award?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

As I've been saying for ages, e.g.

Ukraine was only 4 places above Russia on the World Corruption Index before the war started, as I have been pointing out since the start. It's probably why support for Ukraine has been limited - give them any more and they'll steal it. This is a possible factor in the US blocking mentioned above. Victory for Ukraine now depends on them eliminating a lot of corruption.

There's now official and unofficial confirmation from the White House that this is indeed a big problem

Leaked U.S. strategy on Ukraine sees corruption as the real threat

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/0 ... n-00119237
https://www.state.gov/wp-content/upload ... PUBLIC.pdf

[Boac]

....and, rather unsurprisingly, the UK is running out of stuff to give them.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

..as is Poland.
..and that's the three biggest contributors.

The Ukrainian oligarchs are going to have to forego their new yachts if they wish to have a country to return to.
Doubtless putin has already offered them a deal, but after Prigozhin he won't have any takers ever again.

Tricky situation. Corruption at the local level tend to increase in times of war and hardship, but corruption has to decrease everywhere in Ukraine to gain victory.

[Boac]

Promising opinion - from Z-News

"Ukraine's recent attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet have led to a "functional defeat" of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea, British Defense Secretary James Heappey said on October 3 at the Warsaw Security Conference, according to The Kyiv Independent.

Heappey stated that the Russian navy is now "forced to disperse to ports from which it cannot exert any influence on Ukraine," Patrick Wintour, the Guardian's diplomatic editor, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

This victory at sea is "just as important" as Ukraine's surprise counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region in the fall of 2022, Heappey said, according to Wintour.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is stationed in occupied Crimea, has been attacked several times in recent weeks, including on September 20 at a command post and on September 22 at its headquarters. These attacks had "almost certainly caused severe" damage to the fleet, the British Ministry of Defense reported on September 26 (click here for images for information).

The Ministry of Defense added that, therefore, the fleet is unlikely to be able to perform basic combat tasks such as cruise missile strikes and local security patrols.

According to the Ukrainian military, the missile attack on the headquarters of the fleet in Sevastopol on September 22 killed 34 Russian officers, including the fleet commander, and injured 105 other soldiers.

According to Sky News, the attack was carried out using British long-range Storm Shadow missiles."

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Good article by Lewis Page, ex-RN, explaining the problems Russia will have due to the functional loss of Sevastopol as a major base.
Also good info on the Russian Naval Aviation difficulties.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/1 ... gniter-rhr

[tango15]

Good article by Lewis Page, ex-RN, explaining the problems Russia will have due to the functional loss of Sevastopol as a major base.
Also good info on the Russian Naval Aviation difficulties.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/1 ... gniter-rhr

My understanding is that Russian Naval Aviation has never covered itself in glory. Readers may remember that the Russkies built their own copy of the Harrier, the Yak-38, with the NATO reporting code 'Forger'. In the Yeltsin years, there existed a small museum at an airfield called Centralnii, not far from the centre of Moscow, as the name implies. One of the exhibits was a Yak-38, and as a few of us were passing the aircraft on the way to lunch one day, one of the Russian guys we worked with told me that he used to fly them. Fascinated, I asked him to tell me more. He said they were attached to the 'Kiev' class aircraft carriers, usually with about 12 aircraft allocated.
After the Falklands War, they were fascinated by the idea of 'viffing' - vectoring in forward flight, so off they went to the Black Sea and began manoeuvres. Now the Yak-38 had three engines, two that were used for take-off and landing, and a third more powerful engine, used for normal flight. Despite this, it was still considered by the pilots to be underpowered. There was an unusual function incorporated into the aircraft whereby if one of the two take-off and landing engines failed, it would automatically eject the pilot. Apparently, this happened on a number of occasions, plus various problems keeping the aircraft airborne in the hover. He told me that on a one-week exercise in the Black Sea, they lost six aircraft, whereupon they were told to return to base, and the remaining aircraft were removed from the carrier.

Their incompetence with just about anything mechanical, in design, production, and operation, has been laid bare during Mr Putin's 'Three-day Special Military Operation' in Ukraine. I had seen and heard countless examples of their ineptness prior to this, but I never imagined that it was quite so widespread.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

On my first squadron, Russian Naval Aviation was our prime threat. The Forger was developed to give Western newbie fighter pilots some target practice, and would have been exceptional in this role It was also capable of frightening the grass skirts off any TPLACs the Soviet Union may have taken exception to.
The auto eject is not as crazy as it sounds. In the hover, any VSTOL aircraft is at risk of developing a fatal rate of sink following catastrophic engine failure before the pilot can react and eject. It's just basic physics and reaction times.

The mechanical and aerodynamic side of Russian equipment isn't too bad, and operation is pretty good when you consider the quality of personnel expected to use them.

Note that the PT-91 tank, built by Poland and supplied to Ukraine, is basically a T-72 with some western electronics, thicker and reactive armour, and a bigger engine to move that about. The gun, chassis, and basic design are Russian and good.

The problems lie mainly in 3 areas. The first is electronic sophistication., which always has been way behind the West. The second is strategy, which has always been top-down, inflexible, and incapable of rapid adaptation. The third is corruption, which affects everything from training to reliability to logistics. The combination of the second and third points mean that Russia is incapable of supporting any advance more than 90 km from a railhead.

Russia has no hope of achieving its war objectives. However, we are now in the situation of waiting for them to lose, and they have a lot of stuff to throw away. ISW yesterday* is reporting that the Russian High Command intends on continuing to do this with wasteful counterattacks. I expect Shoigu has a photo of his hero, General Melchett, on his wall.



* https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ber-3-2023

[tango15]

Yes, basically agree with your points, F3. The Melchett clip, which I haven't seen before (I missed a lot of bLackadder because I was overseas, and have never managed to catch up), is so apposite and totally hilarious.
The intercepted reports from the Russian troops on the front line depict a dystopian nightmare, with rusty ammunition, poor (or no) food, and very poor medical and evacuation procedures. I imagine it is even worse than The Somme, but I still find it difficult to feel any sympathy for them.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Satellite imagery published on October 1 and 3 shows that Russian forces transferred at least 10 vessels from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.[1] The satellite imagery reportedly shows that Russian forces recently moved the Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen frigates, three diesel submarines, five landing ships, and several small missile ships.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ber-4-2023

[Woody]

Putin claims Prigozhin’s plane crashed because the Wagner leadership got drunk and/or high, then set off hand grenades during the flight.

Seems legit, definitely no further questions about that incident, we can all move on

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Four Great Lies of History

"Of course I love you"
"The cheque's in the post"
"No, I won't @#* in your mouth"

and the fourth is role-specific. For Air Defence, it is "The tanker's airborne"

..but there's always a few new candidates for the Fifth,

..and I think putin's decided that that will be his legacy to history
"The party got a bit out of hand, and the grenades came out"



FFS, this isn't Malmo.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Arguably the best guide to the general economic health of Russia is the USD-Ruble exchange rate. Coffee, along with many other basics foodstuffs, is not embargoed and trading normally. However, like many, it has to be paid for in USD.

After the initial invasion, the exchange rate has steadily climbed from around 70 rubles / 1 USD pre-war to 102 / 1 now.
Russians may be mostly drinking Robusta instead of Arabica, according to The Moscow Times


Note that, unsurprisingly, this article is not in the English language version of The Moscow Times.
Link to Google Translated version of Russian article:
https://www-moscowtimes-ru.translate.go ... r_pto=wapp

Nor is the one about the Ruble exchange rate, or any other story that makes the Russian economy look bad.

https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/16247
Translation

“Hand over the currency.” The authorities demanded that large companies sell dollars to save the ruble

Russian authorities are once again turning to large companies with foreign currency earnings for help to slow down the fall of the ruble, which recently reached its lowest level since March 2022.

After the dollar rose above 100 rubles again, officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank asked exporters to increase foreign currency sales on the market, two sources at major Russian banks told Reuters. According to them, the “call” of exporters probably took place at the end of last week. Negotiations took place in the spirit of “citizens, hand over your currency,” one of the agency’s sources said.

Apparently, exporters entered the market again on Monday, notes HSE professor Evgeniy Kogan. In the morning, the dollar exchange rate jumped above 102 rubles, and in the second half of trading it began to decline sharply and lost almost 4 rubles. In essence, the foreign exchange market was transferred to “manual control,” Kogan believes: the Central Bank carried out interventions, most likely “through the hands of exporters,” in order to “mitigate volatility.”

According to Bloomberg estimates, this is at least $80 billion - the amount that ended up in offshore accounts for goods exported from Russia in the first year of the war. The authorities threatened those who disagreed with the introduction of strict foreign exchange controls and the mandatory sale of almost all export currency (up to 90%), as well as restrictions on the withdrawal of capital, including in rubles.

Seems like wages are not being paid now.
https://www-moscowtimes-ru.translate.go ... r_pto=wapp

Note that the gas is referred to as being cut off from supply to European countries, yet we all know there is no market left if Russia wished to start resupplying...and the wage (non-)payers at Gazprom know that too.

The final giveaway that the exchange rate is a problem is that in the last week both putin and Peskov have denied it's a problem

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Unofficial Russian sources report that the Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, on the Western Zaporizhzhian front, has been replaced again. Lieutenant General Denis Lyamin lasted 3 months.
The last one was sacked for criticising Stavka strategy and that it wasn't giving his troops any relief.
No idea why Lyamin was sacked, who his replacement is yet, or the floor of the building he is now residing on

The Russians are chucking more men at Avdiivka, mostly Donetsk paramilitaries and other ne'er-do-wells. Cannon fodder sacrificed because Gerasimov has demanded somebody be sacrificed.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

As I reported putin and Peskov saying, the ruble exchange rate isn't the slightest problem...

..so that's obviously unconnected with putin signing an order last night for the mandatory sale of foreign currency by major exporters to the Russian State.
The Ruble/USD improved by 3.3% this morning.
Everybody, even the Russian media, say this is a short-term effect.

The IOC has just cancelled the admission of the ROC.

UEFA has re-banned the Russian U17 teams it just allowed in after 12 nations, including England, Poland, and Sweden, pulled out as a consequence.

In short, all the bribes the Russians have paid the sports nomenklatura aren't worth anything when enough nations take a stand.

The Russian attacks near Avdiivka have bumped the daily Russian death toll up from around 600 to 1,000 again. No gains reported or claimed.

[tango15]

I was thinking yesterday that if the ruble is at 100 to the $, you need 10,000 kopeks to buy a dollar. I wonder if the kopek will disappear before too long?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Nah, the dollar will disappear

[Woody]

This was one of the most serious blows in the history of the special military operation," Russian military bloggers are reporting that Ukraine has attacked two Russian military airfields, destroying nine military helicopters, an anti-aircraft missile system, and an ammunition warehouse.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Yup, looks like ATACMS missiles have been used for the first time today. The US has only given the Ukes the cluster bomb variant, but this is ideal for targets like aircraft widely dispersed across a distant airfield, or new / temporary ammo dumps where stacks are in the open (no berms) but separated by distance. The point / hardened targets can be hit with Storm Shadow / SCALP.

More here:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... er-17-2023

[boing]

I wonder whether the ATACMS missile supply to Ukraine is is a warning to the Russians to back off from causing trouble in the Middle East?


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