Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Well, the Kremlin has now officially denied putin had a heart attack...and also denied he has body doubles

..so it must be true

[tango15]

Well, the Kremlin has now officially denied putin had a heart attack...and also denied he has body doubles

..so it must be true

Reminds me of the joke about a senior Kremlin being assembling all the lookalikes, following an assassination attempt on Putin:
"As you will be aware, there was an attempt on the President's life yesterday. The good news is that he is recovering. The bad news is that we had to amputate his left leg..."

[tango15]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... denly.html

Lukoil is the Russian equivalent of Shell or BP. It has filling stations everywhere. Putin has a thing about Lukoil, perhaps because, as I understand it, they don't pay their insurance premiums

[Dushan]

Useless newspaper reporting. No floor, that he fell from, given.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Reported elsewhere - sixth floor!

[Boac]

I heard it was the basement?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

That was the guy 3 months ago...apparently fell up 3 floors to his death...the Kremlin reported it as "after visiting a shaman", so probably one of those tragic levitating deaths

[tango15]

That was the guy 3 months ago...apparently fell up 3 floors to his death...the Kremlin reported it as "after visiting a shaman", so probably one of those tragic levitating deaths

It's a strange thing in Russia. Despite the heavy hand of communism, many people kept icons (in the form of religious portraits), in a corner of the living room. The authorities knew about it and it was tolerated. However, if things went wrong in their lives, many people would seek out a shaman to banish the ill-intended spirits that they believed were affecting them. How successful they were I never discovered, but from conversations I overheard from time to time, they were called upon from time to time.

[tango15]

I see that Putin is now suggesting that those who are in serious debt will now be added to the list of those likely to be sent to the meat grinder:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/18 ... ebt-scheme

I know it's the Express, but the story does appear elsewhere.

When my Russian g/f and I were an item, she was once prevented from joining me on holiday, because she had not paid some outstanding income tax. She apparently made a scene at the airport, but it made no difference. Imagine if British people were prevented from leaving the country for not paying outstanding tax!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

..as if tax dodgers made ideal military material

putin appears to be losing his grip on the country. He daren't attempt further conscription, the stock of mercenaries and criminals is basically exhausted, so now he's looking for tax dodgers.
We would expect things to start going wrong in 3 areas, I suggest. The first would be the regions least committed to Moscow. The second would be people high in the system looking to hedge their bets, and so taking actions which they could later claim was resisting putin. The third would be inactivity, both within the military and civilian worlds, for the same purpose as the second.

Implied by numerous reports from the battlefield, I think we've been seeing the third for several months now. I think the first has just happened - from ISW

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov's response to the October 29 antisemitic riots in the Republic of Dagestan suggests that Russian officials may be increasingly concerned about the weakening of authoritarian control in regions on the periphery of the Russian Federation. Kadyrov responded to the riots in Dagestan by praising Russian President Vladimir Putin's accusation that the West orchestrated the situation to destabilize Russia.[1] Kadyrov later called on Chechen security forces to immediately detain instigators of any potential riots in Chechnya or to "fire three warning shots in the air and after that, fire the fourth shot in the head."[2] Kadyrov's reactions to the riots in Dagestan suggest that he is first and foremost concerned with maintaining the perception of his unwavering support of Putin and secondly with demonstrating the strength of his authoritarian rule over Chechnya by threatening a violent response to potential future riots.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... er-31-2023

[tango15]

Kadyrov is a nasty piece of work. Prigozhin will never be dead while he's alive!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

War with Russia has reached a stalemate, Ukraine's top general admits

A 'deep and beautiful breakthrough' in Ukraine's counteroffensive is unlikely, Gen Valery Zaluzhny said

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... p-general/

So we wait to see who runs out of men, equipment, or morale first. Or economic collapse.

And as one side or the other feels they are getting close to one of these conditions, things could get much nastier.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

..or, of course, putin could have another heart attack!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

putin has pulled Russia out of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, citing the US failure to ratify it.

Since the US has had 27 years to do so, I think he has a point.

The USA is somewhat in the habit of signing stuff, then not ratifying it.

I would presume the purpose is to do a Yung Fat Wun, and have a nuclear test every time he wants to make a big threat.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Why does Russia keep making the same mistakes?

Here's a possible reason from today's ISW summary, which would certainly explain it

Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the Russian military command for failing to establish long-term training capabilities because it is keeping skilled commanders and soldiers at the front and leaving inexperienced careerists to train new recruits and officers. One Russian milblogger claimed that Russia continues to only learn from its mistakes at the cost of significant losses and that the Russian military command fails to teach effective tactics employed by competent commanders and servicemen to new personnel.[11] The milblogger claimed that the Russian military command commits the most capable commanders and servicemen to the most dangerous frontlines in Ukraine instead of using them to train the incoming class of Russian soldiers. The milblogger added that Russia needs to resolve this problem on a systemic level, otherwise newly formed units will repeat prior Russian mistakes on the frontline. Another Russian milblogger responded to the milblogger’s critiques, noting that Russia needs to have experienced servicemen teach graduating classes at Russian military schools since graduates only study theory and do not receive any practice in modern warfare.[12] The milblogger implied that there are problems with Russian military theory and a lack of proper officer training because generals and officers who receive teaching positions do not have combat experience and only care about their own career growth. The milblogger concluded that the poor command of Russian operations in the Avdiivka direction and near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) indicates that Russian generals do not think about the wellbeing of the Russian Armed Forces in the long-term.

A lot of sane officers with connections are going to get themselves cushy numbers at the training schools rather than risk getting killed at the front.
Not to mention that effective training usually involves the trainer getting wet, cold, muddy and tired as well as the troops.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ber-3-2023

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the war in Ukraine is not a “stalemate” in a comment to the media about Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s essay on the positional nature of warfare in Ukraine.

Here is Zaluzhnyi's full essay

https://infographics.economist.com/2023 ... ERSION.pdf

I've speed-read it. Yes it does say there's a stalemate, since Ukraine does not possess sufficient (or in some cases, any) of the types of equipment needed to break what Zaluzhnyi calls positional warfare.
The essay is basically poor English - I don't think the problems are down to translation, but that sections are contradictory. One can quote several places where he says "to avoid positional warfare", and several others where he says that's what they are currently in. The descriptions of the problems, and the necessary solutions, clearly indicate that the current situation IS a stalemate.

There's some detail I haven't seen elsewhere on what the main problems are. These seem to me to be the Russian use of GPS jammers en masse, and their ability to target Uke mine clearance teams.

I think the important thing is what's not being said, and that is "Why not attack somewhere else?".

I am not the least bit convinced that what Zaluzhny says he needs will fix the problems, and in essence I think the Ukes need to attack somewhere where there aren't 15-20 kms of minefields.

[boing]

Now may be a good time to assess the wisdom of destroying the Nova Kakhovka dam. This has always bemused me somewhat because it seemed to be a victory of spite over military logic.

With the dam in place the Russians had an easily defended, strategically invaluable, river crossing. Below the dam the river flow was adequate to maintain a desirable obstruction to Ukrainian access to the left bank., the only danger area for the Russians was the Kinburn Peninsula itself because, being long and thin and near to Ukraine, it COULD have been infiltrated but breaking the dam has no effect on that possibility.

Did the Russians not imagine that eventually the drained areas would become firm and the river would be much narrower than its original size?

It seems the Ukrainian forces were originally intending to provide a distraction for the Russians and force them to move reserve forces to Kherson but the tentative idea has proved sufficiently successful to encourage the Ukrainians to push for a stronger route across the river. Their present movements suggest they might be thinking of securing the old Antonivka railway bridge and eventually the area protected by the Olyeshki sand dunes. If the sand dunes are isolated the area to the west of them becomes untenable and Ukraine can start moving heavy equipment across the river.

.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I think the military logic was short term to reposition the reasonable quality left bank defensive forces to Zaporozhzhia, and substitute lower quality border troops, plus removing a potential front.
That worked, witness the current status quo.

Medium term, It will be interesting to see what happens after the freeze up.
https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads ... 15ef_k.jpg

The freeze-up is usually early Jan - early March, normally after 20 days of sub-zero temps. However, it's quite variable and there may be no freeze up.
The long range forecast is currently normal temps and a little above average snowfall
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-rang ... europe-fa/
It should make things a lot easier for mountain troops / SF to cross and cause mayhem, but heavy armour is out.

Medium-to-long term. Russia sustained two armies on the right bank using 5 pontoon ferries, Ukraine should be able to do the same next Spring.

Long term, Crimea is unsustainable due to the loss of the canal's water supply.

p.s. found some German Army maps from 1943 showing the region before the dam was built.
https://en.defence-ua.com/media/content ... a426b8.jpg

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Русский военный корабль, иди нахуй

New Russian warship about to be commissioned gets hit in Kerch shipyard.

Doesn't look like that will be going anywhere soon.
It's important as it's designed to carry 8 Kalibr cruise missiles, part of a new class that is smaller than the usual ssm carriers.

Location
https://www.google.com/maps/@45.26504,3 ... ?entry=ttu

More here, including video of the strikes.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... iv-latest/

The Russians claim to have hit 13 out of the 15 incoming missiles.
If so, looks to me like the Ukes launched 13 decoys, all intercepted, and 2 SCALPs which both hit.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Since Ukraine put the shipyard in Sevastopol out of action last month, and the third shipyard in Crimea, at Feodosia, is closer to Ukraine than Kerch, I would guess the Russians will have to retreat back to Novorossiysk for any serious work.

The Russian Defence Ministry has admitted the Kerch strike, but only stated that a warship was damaged.

RT, and a couple of Russian proxies I look at, are pretending the strike never happened. This is not usual. What they normally do is at least repeat the Defence Ministry line.