Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russia announced it would be building a new railroad across Zaporozhzhia, hugging the coast and passing through Berdyansk.
The existing railroad through Tokmak is too close to Uke artillery to be usable (and assorted bridges are down anyway, last I heard).
They are also going to double the road capacity along that route.

Could be because:
They can't supply the troops in southern Kherson sufficiently at present
They think the Kerch Bridge could be cut again (It's clearly in range of SCALP after the Kerch shipyard hit).
They are using too much manpower and resources with current supply routes through Crimea
All of the above.

Quite where they will find the manpower to build these new links is uncertain at present.
However, ALL Russian prisoners have just had their details transferred to the military recruitment system, and legal controls have been over-ridden.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Explosion reported at the Taganrog airbase.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/7/7427596/

The second photo, over the crenellated building, allows for the location to be pinpointed.
It appears to have been taken from an apartment block, here
https://www.google.com/maps/place/47%C2 ... ?entry=ttu
Looking about 330 heading.
The aircraft visible on the right seems to be a Candid parked on the third slot from the west end on the main pan. The smoke would thus be from roughly the touchdown point of the runway in use (note smoke direction).
There is no other parking in that area, so I would guess this is an accident to an aircraft taking off or landing, rather than a drone strike. There was reportedly no air defence activity.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

After all the strikes on Russian HQs earlier in the year, when they were typically located in out-of-town resort complexes, these reports have disappeared.

There seems to be a new wave of strikes, and it would appear that the Russians have moved at least some of their HQs into towns.
Here's an example from yesterday, a HIMARS strike in the seaside town of Skadovsk in southern Kherson.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/9/7427973/

From the description and photos, it appears to be this building here:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/46%C2 ... ?entry=ttu

The reporting by all Russian sources is interesting. What they say and don't say.

They report a civilian facility being hit. (No mention that it's now being used for military purposes).
They report deaths and injuries (No mention that these are not civilian deaths).

They then use the usual crowd of 'random' commentators (all sitting next to each other in an office in St Petersburg) to rant on about civilian deaths and war crimes by Ukraine.

It's a pretty tired formula.

On the ground, Ukrainian sources report 5 dead, including "high-ranking officers" (usually means Colonel and above), and 15 injured.
The area is reportedly locked down. The Russians always do this in the case of a strike on a military facility, and never do this if it's genuinely civilian.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Dnipro - Left Bank

On Monday, Russian news sources (TASS and Ria Novosti), both released news alerts, reportedly from the Russian Defence Ministry, that some Russia forces on the Left Bank of the Dnipro were "relocating to more advantageous positions", which is standard Russian doublespeak for retreating.
These alerts were all pulled within minutes, with the usual concoction of excuses; "released in error", "CIA disinformation", "completely untrue". etc.

Today, the Russians announce that Uke forces on the Left Bank are receiving "Hellfire" with a life expectancy of two days.
These being Uke troops who aren't there, according to the Russians, and indeed couldn't be there since the Russians haven't retreated.

The Ukes themselves have asked for Information Silence on this front.

Russian arty fire has been geolocated to targeted on the dacha area SW of Krynky, which puts the Ukes across the road from the forest that surrounds the Oleshky Sands national park.
Once they get access to that forest, then prior experience would seem to indicate the Russians have no chance of getting them out - the Ukes have always been able to hold forested areas.
It also would allow Uke SF to operate all along and behind the Russians on the Left Bank, downstream to the Kinburn Spit, and up to 15 miles inland, without ever leaving the forested areas.

[boing]

As I suggested many months ago (post 4105 et al). Kinburn Spit is the key, Hola Prystan is the door,

.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Looks like the Ukes have gone in through the lounge window, to open the door from the inside.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

About the best source for video evidence is here

https://geoconfirmed.org/ukraine

Note there's a convenient slider just up from the bottom of the screen, which allows data to be restricted to the last few days (or indeed any time period).

Obviously this is restricted to places which Geoconfirmed have actually confirmed, but in the past I have only been ahead of them by a few hours on most things I've ID'ed, and there are very few that I have ID'ed that they have not also done so within a few days. I don't think they've ever ID'ed somewhere that I disagreed with. Given that the current situation is relatively static, this should be fine.

They also link directly from each icon to the video/photo's they used, which is great.

Of particular interest at the moment is that Uke drones are clearly able to operate across the Dnipro, and destroy the lighter Russian AfVs (such as BTRs) and trucks.
It may well be that almost all the Russian tanks are off around Tokmak anyway.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

25 miles beyond the Dnipro in southern Kherson, some Russian soldiers are debussing into their newly commandeered accommodation.....

Little do they know they are being watched

[PHXPhlyer]

I like their Winged Great White logo.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Some reliable posters on twitter I used to use are now switching to Mastadon.
Searching isn't easy, but I have found one who posts daily.

Summary of the last few days.
Russian use of infantry and armour to expel the Ukes around Krynky on the Left Bank of the Dnipro appears to have failed.
The Russians have resorted to arty and bombs to simply flatten every building.

There is extensive use of FPV drones by the Ukes. They are now targeting individual soldiers with the smaller ones, with very messy results.
Can't be good for morale. One vid shows a Russian soldier covering the biggest bit what's left of his oppo with his poncho, then simply wandering off, regardless of cover. A report that 20 Russians deserted yesterday.

Not much progress by either side anywhere else, and the Fall Mud Season has begun.
Russians losing a claimed 1,000 ish a day again recently, mainly due to offensive actions by them around Avdiivka.

Russian air attacks are almost entirely Shahed drones. Lots of reports that the Russians are saving up better missiles for a Winter attack on Uke power infrastructure.

[tango15]

I am amazed that this has taken so long. The MT was often openly, but mildly critical of the Kremlin, but Putin is becoming increasingly intolerant of any criticism, and of course, the MT is foreign-owned and since the war in Ukraine has moved its headquarters to Amsterdam:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/ ... ent-a83140

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Action continues on the Left Bank of the Dnipro.
The Ukes are targeting Russian supply and AFVs, with UAVs, arty, and missiles (probably MRLS).
I still have not seen a Russian tank on any video of this area, so I think the Rooskies have moved them all to the Zaporozhzhian / Donetsk fronts.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports

I have geolocated the Korsunka one to here
https://www.google.com/maps/place/46%C2 ... ?entry=ttu

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Reports that the Ukes now are in the Oleshky Sands forests.
At the moment, they are reportedly seeking cover whilst the Russians systematically flatten Krynky.
Missile strikes continue in the area just beyond the Oleshky Sands National Park, about 25 miles behind the river.
UAVs are being used up to about 8 miles. Arty generally in the gap between the two.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Latest report from a Russian blogger also seems to indicate that the Ukes are in the Oleshky forests, and that the situation for the Russians could become serious as a consequence

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111447678488216178

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Two other Russian bloggers, claiming sources at the front, also reporting that Russia is doing badly around Krynky.
One states that the Ukes are now also across the Dnipro in Pidstepne and Pishchanivka, about 20 km further downstream.

By way of confirmation, Shoigu has officially said that all Ukrainian amphibious attacks have been repelled with "colossal losses".

One Russian blogger specifically states that there may be an awful lot of Russian bombing, but that doesn't mean many actual targets are being hit.
Other problems given include inexperienced Russian forces, poor quality equipment (especially clothing), insufficient UAVs, and Uke rapid counterbattery fire.

There's a video from yesterday showing a Russian Grad launching rockets and driving off, but being hit only about 200 yards away from its firing point by a Uke suicide drone.
A Russian blogger reports mortar crews only getting 5-10 rounds off before Uke arty is incoming.

On the plus side for the Russians, it appears they are distributing ex-Wagner guys around, 2-3 to each unit, and they are passing on their combat experience.
I don't know if this is deliberate, or a by-product of parcelling out ex-Wagner guys so they don't start another revolt.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

More BS, or cracks appearing?


Time to consider stopping ‘tragedy’ of war, says Putin

Vladimir Putin has told the G20 that it is time to consider how to stop “the tragedy” of the war in Ukraine.

The Russian president denied at a virtual meeting of the group that Moscow had ever declined to participate in peace talks.

“Yes, of course, military actions are always a tragedy,” he said.

“And of course, we should think about how to stop this tragedy.

“By the way, Russia has never refused peace talks with Ukraine.”

Mr Putin’s remarks come just a day after Rodion Miroshnik, Russia’s ambassador-at-large, said it could not co-exist with Volodymyr Zelensky’s “toxic” Ukrainian government.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -missiles/

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

UK MoD pointing out the effectiveness of Ukrainian UAVs in Kherson.
One from yesterday
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111454727669237234
I have geolocated this to here
https://www.google.com/maps/place/46%C2 ... ?entry=ttu

Remember that the Ukes already control the Dachy area on the Left Bank just to the north of here.

Taking out sentry positions on the outskirts of towns avoids the problems of hitting civilians, but presumably is intended to facilitate Uke SF sneaking into said towns. Add in the cold weather, and the average Russian soldier is going to be very reluctant to stick his nose out of doors, whatever his orders. Especially since the officers won't be popping by, also because of the UAVs hitting vehicles on the roads.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukes not having it all their own way, of course.
Here is some Russian footage of their UAVs observing, and later hitting, a Ukrainian-occupied house in Krynky


House is here:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/46%C2 ... ?entry=ttu

From the movements of the Uke troops, it looks like they consider this section of Krynky secure from ground threats, and are possibly coming back in pairs from guard duty on the forest, or on the road, to the south.

The Russians would appear to still be in the northern eastern section of Krynky, from Uke drone footage of them being hit just over two miles up the road.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

From their own videos, the Russians are now shelling Ukrainian troops in the houses in NE Krynky that the Russian troops were occupying in the previous videos a couple of days ago.
The Russians are also bombing the Left Bank to the east of the Antonovski Bridge, the Ukes having been established in the Dachi to the west for some time.

Reports that the Ukes are advancing south from Krynky, through the forest, to cut the M-14 road.
There is Uke UAV footage showing Russian troops arriving by truck along the road and pulling off to the N side, then promptly being hit by Uke suicide drones.

If the Ukes can sit astride the M-14, then the Russians will be forced to use the roads south of the Oleshky Sands National Park, over 18 miles further south.
The Ukes have shown video of them interdicting traffic on these roads by (GMRLS) rockets.
Control of both routes will make it very difficult for the Russians to supply their troops anywhere west of Chaplynka.

[tango15]

I have the impression, if current reports are anything to go by, that Mr Putin is becoming a bit war-weary. He says he wants to stop the war, but Zelenskyy won't talk - yeah, right!
Neverthless, he's got one eye on the election he's going to win in the spring, but I think he's also finally beginning to feel the backlash from his own people - perhaps those closer to him, and being as paranoid as he is, fears another Wagner-style attack on him, perhaps with more success this time.