Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

A report that the Captain of the Il-22 that was damaged died, but the wounded co-pilot managed to land it.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/21/7438205/
This would seem to be further evidence that the aircraft is out of action for a long time, possibly for good.

putin's glorious forces have actually captured somewhere - Krokmalne, near Kupyansk. It consists of 4 houses, all no doubt rubble by now.
That's an election-winner, right there!

[Boac]

Much credit to that pilot. There must have been a lot of damage.

[probes]

Reports, rumours really without any evidence, that the Russian 382nd Naval Infantry Battalion (810th Regiment) on the Left Bank have lost almost all of their equipment to artillery and drones, and most of their troops.
Desertions are increasing.
It would appear the Russians don't have enough active jammers to upset the drones in this area, nor enough recon and arty assets to find and attack the operators.

Yeah, and the video is a very good one to show what war does to landscapes and land.
I've read about the same (Dnipro east-bank), reliable reports based on several milblogs, incl ruz ones, so I guess it's close to the real situation.

That tweet below is quite ... well, funny? - Sorry, but. When the war started and the volunteers from the West joined UKR, they were reportedly baffled that it is possible to be in combat without your uniform (or what's it called? outfit for combat) being washed every day. It's terribly muddy there, youknow, in the UKR side as well!

[Dushan]

No Chinese laundry store near by?

[Pinky the pilot]

putin's glorious forces have actually captured somewhere - Krokmalne, near Kupyansk. It consists of 4 houses, all no doubt rubble by now.

Hmm..What's Russian for ''We had to destroy the Village to save it.''

No Chinese laundry store near by?

Probably no Chinese Restaurant either.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

What's Russian for ''We had to destroy the Village to save it.''

военная доктрина

[probes]

translated back as: we came here to liberate you of your property, normal life and identity (and life, if you don't love us), but the nationalist locals are brutally bombing us, which has to be taken to the UN Security Council, as the international law has to be followed, or...!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russian Il-76 Candid shot down NE of Belgorod, Russia.
Video shows the aircraft crashing just NE of Yablonovo.
The Russian Ministry of Fairytales and B#llsh!t is claiming there were 65 Ukrainian POWs on board flying into Belgorod being readied for an exchange.

..however, the aircraft just got back from the Middle East and was headed NE from Belgorod. The Ukes reckon it was transporting S-300 missiles (which were supplied some time ago to Iran, which was a stop on this aircraft's ME journey).
..and a cursory first inspection of the 65 names reveals that 17 of them have already been exchanged. So those guys will be upset when they are told they are dead.

The crash site is about 55 km from Ukrainian territory, so this may be another Patriot attack. The damage from pictures of the wreckage looks like blast-frag to me. There aren't bits of bodies all over the crash site.

Looks like the Russians can't even be bothered to construct any kind of even doubtful propaganda - this one has been debunked with visual evidence on at least 4 main points within hours. Total BS.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Turkish Parliament approved Sweden's NATO membership yesterday.
I do not know what the payoff was. Such things with Turkey usually become apparent about 3 months later. Probably a US supply of military equipment, but it may be some financial thing given Turkey's dire economy.
Only Hungary has not yet approved. Looks like Orban is being seriously leaned on behind the scenes.
He's just issued a short notice invite for the Swedish PM to come to Hungary for "Negotiations".
This is likely an attempt at face-saving.
The Swedes have not yet replied formally, but the Foreign Minister said "There is no reason to negotiate."
The Hungarian Parliament sits again on Feb 26th. Expect a very rapid approval without the Swedish PM turning up anywhere.

[probes]

Looks like no notice needed - Orban has said he's not against (to Stoltenberg).
Possibly he has understood the soft underbelly he's sitting in Europe isn't that safe after all?
Erdogan is said to want F16, more than one at that.
The IL 76

Looks like the Russians can't even be bothered to construct any kind of even doubtful propaganda - this one has been debunked with visual evidence on at least 4 main points within hours. Total BS.

why would they? Their people won't need any evidence, the West and Anglosaxians are deepfake liars anyway.
There's another theory - ruz was hunting a UKR drone, and then, youknow...
(for MH17 they did organise a 'press conference' with videos and 'polkovniks' to prove it wasn't their fault. No need any more?)

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Uke drones are heading further afield.
There has been a strike this evening in the oil refining area of Tuapse, on the Black Sea coast of Krasnodar Krai, fifty miles further along than a certain President's palace.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111813077791091594

I have geolocated where the guy stops his car as here:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/44%C2 ... ?entry=ttu

He's looking south.

Looks like a fractionating column, or the pipes connecting to it, are on fire. A lot of fire engines on the way.
This is the only Russian refinery on the Black Sea coast, and has nearly 100 storage tanks of assorted sizes.

[probes]

As for this Il-76 Candid - there's a version that it 'just crashed', as there was no explosion before it started to lose height, and 'landed' on it's left wing. Any more intel on that?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

There is an explosion and structural breakup before impact

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111810297784751890

That doesn't disagree with the first part of what you have related.

However, the skin of the aircraft shows damage consistent with a blast frag warhead, such as the Patriot has.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111810354819229156

It's also possible the blast frag damage is due to the internal explosion we saw in the video.

We'll need a closer look.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Latest claims by the Ukes about the Candid shootdown

only five bodies* were delivered to the local morgue in Bilhorod yesterday and that Russian rescuers were not allowed to inspect the crash site.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111816426554100437

*Normal crew for a Candid.

[probes]

a video noticed 'on the other site' (do we name it already, or don't we?)
The comments-section should go to dirty jokes, like: The plane carried 100 Ukrainian prisoners, 200 puppies, the king of England, and 5 HIMARS launchers.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Early Doors.
The Tuapse refinery fire is reported out. There was enough smoke to suspecd flying at the Sochi airport just down the coast.
Rosneft say the fire was in the vacuum unit, and that this is affecting a number of their processes. Nothing else yet.

[probes]

Interesting developments... or maybe trends. The 'cheap' (in mil equipment categories) FPV drones are becoming more and more of a 'game-changer', as there are many (and UKR does not have to totally rely on aid from partners for them) and if operated skillfully, they are formidable. Which is why the ruz mil-bloggers are reported to have been complaining that several armoured vehicles, incl tanks, were abandoned due to the crews being terrified of drone attacks (Fox had an illustrative video somewhere 'up there'). Plus, the drone operators have become the most valuable assets in combat, which is why UKR used HIMARS to surprise-finish a ruz drone-drill. The location was reportedly sent to the participants via the net, and of course the UKR 'surveillance' always has a guy or three who are not asleep at their post. More than 20 dead, some injured, on a location of more than a hundred 'other' mil staff present. Precision and skills by UKR.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Reports that one of the students on the Russian UAV course let slip their location on an insecure channel, which was picked up by Uke intel.
The basic problem for the Russian forces is that they provide no reliable means for their troops to communicate with home.
So, they ban them from using mobile phones, Telegram, etc, but there's no other way, so the troops ignore it.
And there are means for the Ukes to intercept those transmissions.
Western forces have always prioritised troops being able to communicate home - I got that in the Gulf War - and it's enough to stop people using insecure means.
There's also the problem with mobile and internet comms that the carriers, app writers, etc all want all your details (for advertising), so stuff like position is often embedded in every transmission.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Three Rooskies get lucky 3 times with drones hitting their hideouts as they run from one to the next.

..but wait, there's more!

[boing]

I hope they didn't take that personally.

.