Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[probes]

On the radar system in Brjansk. Another one east of Moscow attacked, several explosions reported last night, so probably damaged (this time, UKR has tried it before).
ruz says it's range is/was up to 3000 km.



edited to add on the extra-long-range radar:
What Makes the 29B6 Container Radar System So Special, Which Has Been Attacked by Ukrainian UAVs for the Second Time?

[probes]

A bomber down, Stavropol region. Possibly the one returning from bombing UKR


10 howitzers Bohdana 155-mm produced by UKR.
​Ukraine's Bohdana 155mm Howitzer Production Rate Doubled and Keeps Growing

[tango15]

We don't hear too much about ground battles at the moment - it all seems to be drones and aerial attacks, which is no bad thing of course. Do we think that both sides maybe a bit short of conventional field ammo?

[probes]

UKR definitely is (short of ammo), and the glide bombs are massive beasts. ruz is moving slowly around Bakhmut and 'imitating' battles 'down there', the banks near Herson. ruz must be kinda-short of some components, too (thank God! - which reminds me, more dams have burst in Siberia), otherwise they would have had more success.
Massive numbers of bodies and mil equipment lost on ruz side, and to a lesser extent, but hurting more, on UKR side. But what can they do? Just fight until there's no ammo at all.
The mil bloggers say.
Some interesting developments, like troops on motobikes (that can be hunted with drones, they're not that fast). Drones help a lot, but big guns would be better.
Also, the fact that the beautifully gliding TU22M3 is said to be significant, as it happened on ruz territory - is to indicate to the glidebombers that they're not safely home above ruz territory any more.

The several strikes on air defence and radars is expected to be a preparatory phase for the F-16 to arrive and start operations.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

If the Ukes are going to take out the Bridge, they will need a clear path across Crimea. Partway for their bombers, and all the way for the missiles.
This means taking out (in roughly this order):
1 AWACSki - tick, VG
2 area defence SAMs - like the S400 at Dzhankoy first, as they are hard to replace.

Then on the day, and only along the bomber route:
3 point air defence like SA-15 Gauntlet/Tor M1/2 - MiG-29, Su-27 + HARM
4 fighter Combat Air Patrols - F16 + AMRAAM on fighter sweep to take out Russian fighters, esp. MiG-31 + K37/K37M.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

First satellite photos out of Dzhankoy, post-strike.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112298098448996641

As predicted, 4 SAM battery vehicles burnt out, assorted other traces of impacts, and all helos either flown away or removed, damage unknown.
Hopefully something better tomorrow.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukrainian intelligence have released some footage of the control console from which they claim they hit the Backfire with a refurbished (and possibly modified) SA-5 Gammon at a range of 300km.
They claim the bomber crashed on return to base, presumably from damage sustained in the hit.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112296645353358833

In the accidental shootdown of Siberian Airlines 1812 in 2001, an SA-5 hit the airliner at a range of 337km, so the Ukrainian claim is physically possible.

The command centre shown is definitely a newer generation than the original, which was based on the Square Pair radar.
If I were the Ukes, I would modify the missile so it can be launched to a programmed point from the tracking radar info, then only turn on the terminal guidance radar in the final phase of the intercept.
This would explain why it was possible to intercept the Backfire (and the earlier A-50s). If the guidance radar was on from such a long range launch, the Backfire could easily just turn and run when lock on and launch were detected onboard.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

More than 300 units of Russian equipment were destroyed by the units of the 79th Air Assault Brigade near Novomykhailiivka, Donetsk Oblast. Stunning results.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112298576786549478

The Russians can't go on like this.

On the other hand, they don't need to - back to artillery and human wave assaults.
The Ukrainians can only counter that if they get more artillery ammo for counter-battery fire.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Ukrainians will wish to take out as many of the short range Russian SAM systems as possible, especially in the Kherson, Western Zaporizhzhia, and northern Crimea areas.
The bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro is therefore quite important for using drones against such systems.
Here's one being taken out recently.



The Ukrainians don't need to take out all of them, just enough to leave gaps in coverage, and of course to then know where those gaps are.

The terrain in central southern Kherson/central western Zaporizhzhia is almost completely open farmland.
The SAM shown being hit was hiding in one of the few bits of woodland north of there.
There's almost nowhere for a SAM system to hide right the way from there to the Crimean border.

Ukrainian Fencers will need to penetrate most of the way across Russian-occupied southern Kherson in order to launch Storm Shadow/SCALP against the Kerch Bridge.
This may not be the primary attack missile -
Taurus would be better - but SS/SCALP would be likely part of the attack, possibly to take out point defence SAMs around the bridge so that Taurus could have a higher chance of a successful strike.

[GrumpyPilot]

Fox/Tango/Probes,
A simple question which probably doesn’t have a simple answer

How does the war end?

What is the end game, as Ukraine really doesn’t have a chance of recapturing areas under Russian control.

Will it be akin to Northern Cyprus, where no country recognizes the break away regions except for Russia?

Will a regime change in Russia make things better/worse?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

More oil strikes in Russia
Some video this morning of tanks in the Smolensk area burning
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112303350022771271

I have geolocated this to here, on the outskirts of Kardymovo:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/54%C2 ... ?entry=ttu

There is a larger set of tanks 300m to the NE, also well alight. 18 tanks in total, looks like they will all be gone.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russian channels reporting another mass launch of Ukrainian UAVs into eastern Russia tonight, including Moscow.

Hint to Congress - pass that Ukraine aid bill if you want to keep the price of oil down!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

GrumpyPilot

Several possible endings.
1. putin dies (anyhow). Russia goes home.
2. War drags on for years more due to corruption, stupidity, poor generalship, and insufficient weaponry for either side to win it. See Iran-Iraq War.
To take a parallel, we are starting the War of the Cities phase. Final ending decided by external event.
3. Ukraine gets insufficient weapons to stop/slow Russian advance. At some point the Uke government/army cracks, Russia occupies the whole country.
Then as a result of continued Russian oppression, mass partisan action eventually (5-10 years) forces Russia to leave. Millions die. Afghanistan is the parallel here.
4. Ukraine gets sufficient weapons, and launches a brilliant counterattack (somewhere) this summer. Kerch Bridge destroyed. Rest of Russian armed forces forced to retreat home due to logistics.
5. Ukraine doesn't get enough weapons. Expands drone and assymetric warfare directly against Russian territory/economy.
5.a. Russian economy unable to support war, armed forces go home
5.b. World oil price rockets, Biden sends emergency aid enabling 4.
5.c. Russian economy unable to support war. putin nukes Kyiv
5.c.(i) Ukraine surrenders. Russia occupies Ukraine. See 3.
5.c.(ii) Somewhere like St Petersburg gets nuked in response. Attacker unknown, but message received and understood. Russian armed forces go home
5.c.(iii) Global Thermonuclear War

The probability of all of these options is impossible to accurately judge.
Current situation is 2., I think.

[PHXPhlyer]

House passes critical aid to Ukraine and Taiwan along with a TikTok ban
A vote on an aid package to Israel is underway.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre ... rcna148395

WASHINGTON — The House on Saturday passed a long-awaited bill with $60.8 billion of Ukraine aid.

The bill, passed with 311 votes in favor, 112 votes against, and one present, is expected to head to the Senate alongside three other bills — one with aid for Israel, another with aid for Taiwan and another that forces Tiktok's parent company to sell it. Lawmakers were seen waving Ukrainian flags and cheering upon the bill's passage.

It comes weeks after the Senate passed a mammoth bill with aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, plus funding for border security. Speaker Mike Johnson refused to bring that bill to the floor, instead opting to pass three separate bills with aid for the three nations.

The Senate is expected to pass the bills and send them to President Joe Biden’s desk.

The Ukraine aid bill comes at a crucial time in the country’s war with Russia, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed the urgent need for weapons and supplies to continue defending Ukraine from Russian attacks.

The House also voted on Saturday to force TikTok’s parent company to sell it or be banned in the U.S.

The measure includes a policy to force the China-based ByteDance to sell TikTok within nine months — which the president could extend to a year — or face a nationwide ban. The policy, which lengthens the time frame for a sale from an earlier House bill, has Senate buy-in along with Biden’s support, putting TikTok closer than ever to a ban in the U.S.

The House is also poised to vote on a trio of bills this afternoon that would authorize new U.S. aid to Israel and Ukraine, alongside security assistance for the Indo-Pacific.

The chamber was scheduled to vote in the afternoon on the four bills in succession, one day after a rare and extraordinary bipartisan coalition teed up the votes, with more Democrats (165) than Republicans (151) voting for the “rule” to proceed to the measures.

The three foreign aid bills are also expected to pass and then go to the Senate for approval in the next few days. Taken together, they include the $95 billion aid package championed by Biden, with some changes from the version passed by the Senate two months ago.

Holding the vote represents an act of defiance by Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., against an outspoken faction of conservative rebels who oppose Ukraine funding and pushed him not to bring it to a vote. Three of them — Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., Thomas Massie, R-Ky., and Paul Gosar, R-Ariz. — have threatened to oust him as speaker. The passage of the bill may bring Greene one step closer to forcing a vote to remove him.

After months of wavering, Johnson sided with Biden, Democrats and the Republicans who believe that helping Ukraine fend off Russian aggression is essential to U.S. national security interests, citing briefings he has received and warning: “Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed.”

“I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys,” Johnson told reporters, noting that his son will enter the Naval Academy this year. “This is a live-fire exercise for me as it is for so many American families. This is not a game, this is not a joke.”

Ahead of the vote, former President Donald Trump issued a confusing statement that sympathized with both the pro- and anti-Ukraine aid factions of the GOP without taking a clear position.

If they pass, the bills are expected to be packaged together and sent to the Senate, which will have to vote on the whole legislation to send it to Biden's desk to sign into law. It’s unclear when that will happen, but Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., are outspoken proponents of the foreign aid provisions in the package.

“I hope that President Biden will soon have on his desk long-awaited funding to support our friends in Ukraine and Israel and the Indo-Pacific, and aid for innocent civilians in need of humanitarian aid in Gaza and around the world,” Schumer said before the House vote, cautioning that Ukraine's hopes against Russia would diminish without additional U.S. weapons to defend themselves.

Late Friday, Schumer said the Senate was working to get unanimous agreement to move quickly to vote on the foreign aid legislation. “We are working on an agreement for consideration of the supplemental,” he said on the Senate floor.

McConnell said earlier this week: “Here’s the political reality: If you think the fall of Afghanistan was bad, the fall of a European capital like Kyiv to Russian troops will be unimaginably worse, and if stalled American assistance makes that outcome possible, there’s no question where the blame will land, on us.”

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukraine Bill has passed the US House of Representatives
All the Dems (3 non voting) plus just under half the Republicans.
Should pass the Senate week after next on this form (Mon Apr 29 is next official business day), then they just have to wake Joe up for long enough that someone can help him sign it.

[probes]

Fox/Tango/Probes,
A simple question which probably doesn’t have a simple answer
How does the war end?

Interesting. Just yesterday: OPINION: When and How Will the War End, and What Then? (Kyiv Post)

I think something will happen. The 'Back Swan' option. Maybe even the floods - there were pics in Telegram, Tyumen is also flooded, and if that gets bad...
Or putin finds peace, finally, with the help of his devoted subordinates.
Probably the UKR won't have to fight the occupied territories free, ruz has to leave for some reason. The Bridge unusability, for example.
Or the owners of Patriots (or any air defence systems) finally realise that now there's near-zero possiblility of ruz bombing them, but if they don't give the Patriots to UKR (and putin gets what he wants), they really may get bombed and then their systems won't be enough.

The UKR-NATO meeting yesterday focused on air defence and UKR is going to get more, hopefully soon.

[probes]

They claim the bomber crashed on return to base, presumably from damage sustained in the hit.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112296645353358833

Could it have been a modified S-200? per some claims.

Actually, the main ruz advantage is their glide bombs and strikes on cities. Again, bombs. If that won't work (any more), what then?
OK, some drones are as good as UKR ones, and the mass of men willing to die for their imperator seems to have no end, but at some point that has to start hurting? After all, some are needed in ruz as workforce, too.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Yes, see rest of that post.
Some translations of an interview with Budanov say the Ukes hit the bomber at a range of 308 km, well within the S-200 range.
The crash position has been ID'ed as 380 km from Ukrainian-occupied territory. If the bomber was cruising back to base with damage, this could be a flight time of around 9 minutes.
This would not be an unreasonable amount of time for a fire in the rear section of the aircraft to take to burn through the controls, which could in turn lead to the flat spin we see in the final moments of the crash video.

[probes]

Yes, see rest of that post.

a, ok, sry, I must be a bit thick after a long day working .

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Become Jewish - they don't work Saturdays