Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[probes]

Become Jewish - they don't work Saturdays

Well, that's just the moment for that...!

Btw, you're in good company thinking that ruz has lost the war anyway. Why Vladimir Putin has already lost this war. Yuval Noah Harari
Notice the date - Feb. 28, 2022!

and another facility, not a big one though.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

It is just the moment for that. Next week is Passover Week, and the Senate does not normally sit (Hey, you could take all next week off, Probes ).
However......
Senate Majority Leader has just announced the Senate will sit on Tue 23 April and vote on the Ukraine Bill.
A Reminder that Monday is Passover.

[probes]

There's much wailing in the ruz (mil) social media - Americans have betrayed them.
No comment needed, I guess.
On the other hand, ruz has to use these days to bomb as much as they can before the aid actually arrives. Most activity towards Tsassiv Yar and around Avdiivka and Bakhmut. No remarkable success, but still - crawling on slowly.

Zelenskiy official

We appreciate every sign of support for our country and its independence, people, and way of life, which Russia is attempting to bury under the rubble. America has demonstrated its leadership since the first days of this war. Exactly this type of leadership is required to maintain a rules-based international order and predictability for all nations.

We will undoubtedly use American assistance to strengthen both of our nations and bring a just end to this war closer, the war that Putin must lose.

P.S the ultra-long-range radar (that got a bit broken ) explained:

[tango15]

Sunday 5th May is Orthodox Easter, and I wonder if something big could happen prior to that.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Sevastopol harbour - Looks like the Russians successfully intercepted a Ukrainian anti-ship missile by firing a ship at it
or "The attack was repelled. A fire was started by falling debris" as they currently prefer to express it.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112308328633536617
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112308291799999152

[John Hill]

Is that what is called a 'block ship'?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Since the beginning of human tribes, the point of occupying land is to get some benefit out of it.
That isn't happening for Russia, and is why putin has already lost.
Flattening a town to occupy it brings nothing but rebuilding costs.
They can't farm it because the land's mined, and the drainage is destroyed.
They got Crimea relatively intact, but with the canal gone it can only support half the current population.
And nobody's going to be taking beach holidays there this year.
They can't tie up a ship without Ukraine sticking 5 holes in it.
The industry's flattened.
Every inch of ground they gain needs defending, from troops and partisans.
It's not as if Russia needs Lebensraum - putin's desperately promoting motherhood in Mother Russia because the native population is shrinking as fast or faster than anywhere in NATO.
It doesn't even provide a safety buffer with 2,000km range drones.

And as a side point, Russia's native population is shrinking as fast as...China; and thanks to quietly ignored murder-by-the-million of baby girls for decades, China's a lot worse off going forwards.
Think about the implications of that for Chinese 'foreign policy'.
You might compare the positions of xi and putin for good measure.
Find me a workable plan for China's long term future under a single ruler that doesn't involve invading a neighbour. Good luck.
And by 'long term' I mean 'When xi dies'. Legacy is the key word, as it is for putin.

[probes]

You're right about human tribes, but there are some inhuman leaders to them. As it's been said before - if you want to be an imperator, you've got to have an 'imperium' - and the empire has to widen and successfully get new territories. Which is valuable as such.
Far, far from the hot frontlines, China is quietly taking over already, starting with Chinese names for places and importing their cars.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

xi can't really lose from the Ukraine war.
If Russia wins, he goes south.
If Russia loses, he goes north.
But Russia will lose.
Which is preferable for China, as they will get Siberia's mineral wealth, especially the oil.

[probes]

Forbes gave an analysis of the changing tactics: Russia And Ukraine Are Adapting For The Next Phase Of The War

Ukraine, similar to Russia, has been loosely following Soviet doctrine, which relies heavily on artillery. In this doctrine, the infantry and armor elements are intended primarily to protect the artillery elements, which are positioned in key positions. The artillery then targets their adversaries in coordination with drones, electronic warfare, and forward observers; they can then inflict significant damage and force the enemy to withdraw from an area.
However, with Ukraine running low on artillery rounds, they will need to shift and adopt a new strategy, perhaps leveraging tactics more in line with American military doctrine. This shift emphasizes defensive actions that stall enemy advances, while simultaneously maintaining the ability to quickly transition to offense, allowing Ukraine to punch holes in the stretched Russian lines. Such an offense would not only target weaker portions in the Russian offense but may also involve moving into the Crimean Peninsula. This in turn would allow the Ukrainian forces to envelope Russian forces, disrupt Russian momentum, and help Ukraine regain the initiative on the battlefield. Importantly, these tactics rely less heavily on artillery and more on maneuver elements like armor and infantry.

P.S. massive floods predicted in Southern China.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukraine isn't going to be punching holes in any Russian line.
They tried that last year with much more ammo.
And exactly how are they going to move into Crimea, and sustain that assault?

The Ukrainians do have to hit Russia where they haven't so far.
I still think that means the Kerch Bridge, and the Russian rail system.
Don't fight them when you can starve them.
An assault directly into Russia is also a possibility, but a risky one, not least because the western allies have probably forbidden it.

[probes]

The vintage ship in Sevastopol (see Fox's post on Sevastopol harbout a bit 'up here') was the oldest operable in the world, it's claimed, the Kommuna. Suggestions are the UKR were testing some new version of their Neptune, which was shot down and the debri hurt the poor old lass (ships are female, right?). Which caught fire. But despite being really vintage, it had a sub-robot Seaeye Panther Plus.

Otherwise, ruz is trying hard and harder (well, until the aid is delvered, they have to?), also the glide-bombers have become more insolent and reckless. The number of FAB-1500s dropped on Avdiivka mentioned somewhere was mind-boggling. Even the ruz mil bloggers are reported to be of the opinion that if the glide bombs are 'out' (better air defence from the new aid pack), there would be a real problem - if no progress (='liberating UKR'), then why be there at all?
Interesting. Obviously they are more pragmatic (like Fox) about new territories and not so great fans of their emperor and his ever-growing ambitions.

Probably you remember the eldery women maing Molotov cocktails at the start of the invasion - now people are making drones from cheap components by post:
cheap, simple, effective and gives people a sense of being needed and of help.

Ukraine isn't going to be punching holes in any Russian line.
They tried that last year with much more ammo.
And exactly how are they going to move into Crimea, and sustain that assault?

The Ukrainians do have to hit Russia where they haven't so far.
I still think that means the Kerch Bridge, and the Russian rail system.
Don't fight them when you can starve them.
An assault directly into Russia is also a possibility, but a risky one, not least because the western allies have probably forbidden it.

True.
But you neve know when the moment may come.
I searched 'the last speech by Ceausescu' (a hint in Harari's book) - it's ... well, unbelievable?
That's when he discovers people are not cheering any more - yelling 'hallo!' pathetically, unable to believe that he's not obeyed any more. Just like that. Of course it was only the beginning of the process, and didn't work out like people probably hoped, but that's the first sign - people stop clapping the way they always have.
(and an explanation of context, just in case; videos.)

I happened to visit Romania in '87 with a group and we happened to get a really brave guide, who wasn't scared to tell what's really happening and how people manage with the food shops shelves wiped clean almost everywhere. 2 hours of TV programs a day in the hotels - 1 hour of solemn choirs singing and reciting halleluia to the Ceausescus, 1 hour of them coming from or going to somewhere.

[probes]

Harkiv TV tower damaged. Signal being restored, Zelenskiy says.

And a big poultry farm was hit. ruz reports destroying mil facilities.

UK will announce new aid. Speculations on how long the US aid will last - forgetting ruz isn't what it was a year ago, actually.
The main problem for UKR still is the ruz glide bombs. Danish fighters to arrive early summer.
Mil bloggers haven't figured out why some directions haven't been more successful for ruz - considering the number of troops around there. Possibly low quality of units.

Floods in full swing, a video in ruz social media of a woman yelling at officials: is that what my husband died on the front for?? My house is flooded, I've nothing, no clothes, no drinking water, nowhere to sleep for two weeks already.



GPSJAM says ruz has increased jamming GPS-signal, commercial jets reporting the instances.

[probes]

An interesting one generally, too, and this post on US aid specifically:

Matter of fact is: the stuff is not in Ukraine. Period.
It might, but it also might not get to Ukraine – in days, weeks or months. Nobody really knows.

Must admit, I’m getting seriously tired of all the celebrations about the US military aid,

[tango15]

I can't believe that only seven people have died in all that flooding - particularly in a region that is not well-prepared to deal with it. I very much doubt if the population was given much warning.

I imagine some of the promised aid can be moved fairly quickly, but the remainder will have to be manufactured. Still, there are plenty of large cargo aircraft going into Rzeszow at the moment.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

US Senate considering the Ukraine Aid Bill - vote expected later tonight.
I presume Sleepy Joe can find his pen by tomorrow morning.

Crimea and Taganrog have active air defence, unknown whether the weapons are sophisticated, or not, or both.

putin appears to want Chasiv Yar captured for his May Day speech.

[Dushan]

Looks like it passed, but it’s after “earl bird special dinner time” so will have to wait until morning for Joe to sign.

[probes]

[probes]

As for the 'contents' of the US aid, the ATACMS of longer range are supposed to be the most necessary to prevent ruz glide bomb attacks (around 100 dropped per day, sometimes more - and you can imagine what it means if dropped on a smaller area - the troops just sit in their 'bunkers' and are unable to do anything. Not good for mental health in the real sense of the word).
Drones - more needed for attacks and counter-attacks. The ruz spy drones are said to be quite effective by now as well (and fly far enough), but the UKR national pastime of building cheap drones has helped a lot. Even the ruz mil.bloggers agree. Smoke machines TDA-3 have been deployed . The motobikes (ruz) are not uncatchable for drones any more either.
The ruz national patriotic day of May 9th is approaching fast with its Immortal Regiment events, causing fears of the relatives of not only WWII veterans, but those killed in UKR coming to the streets with big photos of the deceased - which must not happen, of course, as it would give an indication on how many there are.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Signed!

Some details
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112326914531370277