Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Thank you too.
You were quite right about my Sunni-Shia being a poor analogy.
That's a good question about the ROC-MP's longer term aims. I suspect it is more whether it is part of putin's longer term aims.
He has 'weaponised' the Church in a way previous Russian leaders did not.
Quite how big an influence the Church currently is on the Russian population I do not know, but I think others here may. Yourself? Probes? T15?
Anyone? Bueller?

[probes]

The big question, for me, is why putin feels the need to do this now having steadfastly avoided calling the Ukraine SMO a 'war' for two years. Indeed, officially his lackeys are still calling it an SMO.

It never hurts to have the blessing of the Almighty - what more could a man fighting for the 'existence of his country' (and no, it's not UKR, it's the poor ruz that had no choice but to send his men to the meatgrinder) want? Besides the overwhelming support of his nation, that is.
Also, 'holy war' must be something totally different from 'war'. He'll come up with a convincing explanation, no doubt about that.

I think he is now seriously worried that his forces and/or economy cannot last out until the political/economic situation in the West changes and support for Ukraine decreases.

Have the losses to the Black Sea Fleet and the Mainstays triggered this?
Are the AFV losses now above the sustainable rate of replacement from the factories?
Are the front line troops starting to disobey orders on a bigger scale?
Is he concerned that Ukraine will increase attacks directly across the Russian border, which he cannot defend?
Does he think Syrskyi will come up with a winning strategy for the summer?
Is the refinery campaign affecting the Russian economy significantly?
Are the trade sanctions about to bite hard? e.g. rail rolling stock bearings, locomotives https://www.kyivpost.com/post/27740
Is the manpower required for the front affecting domestic production significantly?
Does putin now think the Western economies are collapsing at a slower rate?
Does he think the Western elections over the next year or so will not go his way?

If I had to put money on something, I would guess at the railways.

I marked the ones less likely in my mind.

Ah, well, there's Moscow Orthodox and Ukraine Orthodox.

Even worse, there's the Old Believers - I'd never have imagined it could matter how many fingers you 'use' making the Sign of the Cross with.

I wonder if the ROC-MP is trying to become the leader of all the Eastern Orthodoxy by consolidating its power, uniting the autocephalous churches under one umbrella, in order for Moscow to become the official headquarters of Orthodox Christianity?

GrPilot, you baffle me! Aren't they the centre of the Universe already and anyway??
OK, more seriously, I've understood it's about the wealth the churches own as well (or mostly), and influence. And jobs - A prominent liberal priest faces expulsion from the Russian Orthodox Church for refusing to read out a prayer asking God to guide Russia to victory over Ukraine.. They are obligated to do that every day - since last week? anyway, it's a new devlopment (the 'must').

[probes]

As for the influence - during the soviet regime it was a mortal sin to go there, so when the grip loosened, many did. I've visited churches whenever possible, just for the atmosphere and architecture, and usually there have been some who at least make the Sign of the Cross. But it can't be massive.

The refugees we had around here asked about Orthodox Churches and wanted to go there, and people in UKR are more church-goers, I've got the impression.

[GrumpyPilot]

Probes - the way I understand it ( thank you Wikipedia) is the patriarch of each autocephalous Orthodox Church has a lot of discretion and can act independently?

Now imagine if the Patriarch of Moscow was the head of all Orthodox Churches as the Pope is for Roman Catholics.

Imagine the broad secular and political influence Moscow could then have over all Orthodox realms. This may advance and help in consolidating Moscow’s political and territorial ambitions and give them more sympathies in the Orthodox world?

I know it sounds far fetched, but it could be a long term goal? Re-establish the Russian empire and establish Moscow as Orthodox Christianity’s equivalent to the Vatican.

[probes]

Precisely.
Just one thing - no one in ruz can act independently.

(btw, the Old Church music is really beautiful and hypnotic)

[GrumpyPilot]

Precisely.
Just one thing - no one in ruz can act independently.

I think that is what I was getting at. if the center of the Orthodox world was Moscow with the Patriarch of Moscow as the leader, Church doctrine could align in subtle and not so subtle ways to promote Moscow’s long term political goals since the Church and politicians would work hand in hand? Far fetched, I know.

[GrumpyPilot]

“Quite how big an influence the Church currently is on the Russian population I do not know, but I think others here may. Yourself? Probes? T15? “

I would not have the slightest idea. That one is above my pay grade. I have fairly limited knowledge of that part of the world. I am quite a curious individual and I enjoy listening and learning from others who are much smarter than I am (lefties excluded). My limited knowledge was gained from podcasts and going down the proverbial internet rabbit hole.

[tango15]

Since perestroika, the church has had an increasing significance on Russian life. Based on my own observations and anecdotal evidence, the women outnumber the men as churchgoers. In the days prior to perestroika, every flat I went into had a small corner, where there would be an icon (painting) of a saint, and perhaps some memorabilia of a family member who had passed. There is a special Russian word for this, which I can't remember now. I was told that people would regularly pray in that area of their home. Obviously, the authorities knew about it, but were content to allow it to happen. Most of their churches are open all day, and people frequently go in, light a candle and say a prayer.
Russian Orthodox is based on the Julian calendar, so their Easter does not fall until 5th May this year, and Christmas is celebrated at our Epiphany, normally about 6-7 January. Both traditions were upheld even during the days of the Soviet Union, but were more muted than today.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Two more long range strikes by big Ukrainian drones.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112200706253586374

I think the site of impact is here:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/55%C2 ... ?entry=ttu

This is in a 'Special Economic Zone', which is wholly owned by the Russian Federation.
The buildings in the foreground appear to be hostels. They are fenced in, with the workers under strict security.
The video is taken from outside a car factory across the road.
This is suspected to be where Shahed drones are assembled after importation from Iran.
My guess is that this is being done in the car factory.
UPDATE: drone assembly buildings are the next two new buildings to the west of the car factory buildings, according to the CIA.
More here:
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-iran-sui ... 45386.html

The aircraft (UPDATE: reportedly an Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat, made in Ukraine, seems to be a good match) appears to impact behind the hostels, I think aimed at a line of 20 foot containers.
I would guess this is where the containerized Shahed kits are stored before assembly.
This would be a good place to store them since it's a secure, fenced area.
Of course it may just have missed its intended target of the factory, but the container hit could take out more Shaheds if the guidance was precise enough.
The attack direction appears to be lined up with the container line.

A refinery was also hit.

Interesting that a light aircraft can penetrate 1,000+km of Russian air defence. Shades of Matthias Rust.
One awaits the tragic balcony tumble of the Russian AD Commander.

The above video is being shown on RT.com. Even the comments mention the failure of Russian AD.
Naturally the Russians claim no damage, but they also mention no serious injuries, which would seem to indicate the drone didn't hit the hostels.

[tango15]

Russian radar doesn't seem to be as good as one might expect. I remember that we once filed a flight plan to fly from Moscow to Tashkent in the 125. We requested FL410, but they refused, admitting that their radar couldn't see that high. Eventually, we settled for FL 350 (actually it's equivalent in metres of course).

The Matthias Rust incident has been explained to me by the fact that flying over Moscow was strictly prohibited (except on May 1st ) and that they did not see the need for radar surveillance of the city. That is until Putin took over. He then had a large square inside the Kremlin converted into a heliport, and his mates who own helicopters can now hop around the city to avoid its notorious traffic jams.

On a side note, we once took Yeltsin's personal pilot on a pleasure flight in the 125. Even he could only get permission to follow the MKAD (the Moscow ring road - think M25) and then only after some negotiation.

The fact that these drones are now able to penetrate so far into Russian territory must be a matter of considerable concern for those tasked with the defence of the nation.

[tango15]

Two more long range strikes by big Ukrainian drones.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112200706253586374

I think the site of impact is here:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/55%C2 ... ?entry=ttu

This is in a 'Special Economic Zone', which is wholly owned by the Russian Federation.
The buildings in the foreground appear to be hostels. They are fenced in, with the workers under strict security.
The video is taken from outside a car factory across the road.
This is suspected to be where Shahed drones are assembled after importation from Iran.
My guess is that this is being done in the car factory.
UPDATE: drone assembly buildings are the next two new buildings to the west of the car factory buildings, according to the CIA.
More here:
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-iran-sui ... 45386.html

The aircraft (UPDATE: reportedly an Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat, made in Ukraine, seems to be a good match) appears to impact behind the hostels, I think aimed at a line of 20 foot containers.
I would guess this is where the containerized Shahed kits are stored before assembly.
This would be a good place to store them since it's a secure, fenced area.
Of course it may just have missed its intended target of the factory, but the container hit could take out more Shaheds if the guidance was precise enough.
The attack direction appears to be lined up with the container line.

A refinery was also hit.

Interesting that a light aircraft can penetrate 1,000+km of Russian air defence. Shades of Matthias Rust.
One awaits the tragic balcony tumble of the Russian AD Commander.

The above video is being shown on RT.com. Even the comments mention the failure of Russian AD.
Naturally the Russians claim no damage, but they also mention no serious injuries, which would seem to indicate the drone didn't hit the hostels.

I think the car factory is (was) run by Ford, and they used to assemble the Transit there. It would be interesting to know whether it's still operating. The conditions as expressed in the RFE piece suggest that the area is virtually a Gulag now.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

further update:

post-strike photos from the scene show a new area of hostels further west of the one I ID'ed, which are not on the satellite views yet.
Looks like the drone impacted between the two rows, with serious damage to at least two blocks.
No visible containers on the photos.
If the accommodation was the target, then the daytime strike clearly succeeded in avoiding worker casualties, who appear to be mainly 15-18 year old apprentices under forced labour conditions.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Russian oil situation for March was not good

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/4/7449652/

The announcements may also hide problems on the Russian railways, as I suggested earlier, but there's no way to be sure of that from these stats for a couple of months yet.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Prospects for this year.

The Russians continue to lose armour and artillery systems at quite a rate. They have the ammo, but they still need platforms to fire it from.
They have tried a couple of battalion-level AFV assaults in recent days, both repelled with big losses.
How this leaves them equipped for summer assaults, I don't know.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112207412168845323

The Ukrainians are showing a lot more video from thermal imagers.
A Russian TOS-1 rocket system is hit at night with almost all rounds still on board. Won't need more than a couple of sandwich bags to evacuate the crew.



Senior Ukrainian official saying in the Telegraph that F-16s are so last year. They need ammo for 2024.


Ukrainians are building serious defences on the Zaporizhzhia front.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112211578546063644
Maskirovka, and this is actually where the attack will come?
Expecting big Russian assaults?
Allows Ukrainian troops to be transferred for attacks elsewhere?
A Ukrainian oligarch has a lot of concrete to shift?
Any combination of the above?

Time will tell....

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Ukrainians are claiming a very successful attack on the Morozovsk air base, which is about 250km east of the front line.

It is the base for Su-34 and Su-27/30/35 aircraft used in the glide bombing attacks on the Ukrainian front line.
Claims are 6 aircraft destroyed, at least 8 damaged, and 20 casualties.
These satellite photos from just before the raid appear to show 26 Su-34s on the various dispersals.
The quality isn't great, and the poster asks for corrections, but I for one concur with his analysis. Doesn't look like any Su-24s, which were possibly there also.



There's quite a bit of eyewitness video recording explosions and the power going out in the Morozovsk area.
Also lots of AAA coming up from the air base, but no obvious hits.
The Russians claim 44 UAVs shot down and one power station damaged.

One awaits post-strike satellite photos.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Further Ukrainian claims indicate that three other Russian air bases were hit by UAVs last night.
Rumours are:
Engels-2: serious damage to 3 Bears, and aircrew killed.
Yeysk: 2 Frogfoots destroyed
Kursk: another airfield hit.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112219039915666252

Russian comments/counter-claims are non-existent as yet.
I shall not be bothering with Russian official stuff any more. One look at RT in recent weeks will show it's full of blatant lies and propaganda.
I shall continue to test Ukrainian claims against the available evidence.

Ukraine is now reporting indigenous drones capable of a 2,500km range are expected to be operational this year.
That puts everything in European Russia in range, including the arctic Bear air bases up near Murmansk, and everywhere as far east as Omsk.
It would enable strikes against most of Russia's high capacity refineries, including the largest, which is at Omsk.
I suspect the Omsk refinery was what generated the 2,500km range specification.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russian Air Force-affliated blogger Fighterbomber reporting another UAV at Morozovsk air base blew up whilst the Russian BD team were trying to defuse an unexploded warhead.
Probably just a failed fuse, but there were enough attacks that this may have been either a delayed-action warhead, or one specifically designed to take out a BD team.
We are unlikely to ever find out which.

[probes]

[back from my daffodil-tour in Edinburgh - just totally loved every minute of it!]

Wow, there seem to have been serious developments!
Especially with the fighters.

[probes]

UKR is using 'musical drones' to get footage at night - locals are interested and post it. Four (!) airfields targeted.

[probes]

Engels, at least 3 Tu-95MS destroyed or damaged.
Yeysk, at least 2 Su-25 destroyed.
Morozovsk, with Su-24, Su-24M and Su-34/35 - at least 6 destroyed, 8 badly damaged.
Kursk, damage, no further info yet.
Several troops, probably pilots included, dead or wounded.

What a night.
ruz, as usual, bombed UKR cities, doing the 'double-tap' more often to kill emergency crews.