Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Long video update, using satellite views, on the state of the Black Sea Fleet.


Brief summary:
The only significant warships west of the Kerch Strait appear to be stuck in harbour for repairs. The Russian Fleet is now in Novorossiysk.
All warships under repair appear to be dockside rather than in drydock.
The reviewer concludes this is because all remaining damage is minor.
However, I think it might be because a warship in drydock is very vulnerable to Storm Shadow attacks. The Russians may be choosing to repair them more slowly at the dockside, keeping the potential of moving them quickly after an air attack alert.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

"I'm sorry Sir, I don't care who you are, you can't park that here", #23,876

The Ukrainians steal a Russian T-72 which had been abandoned


The claim appears to be genuine.
At 0:28, I have geolocated the recovered tank on the SE outskirts of Terny, which is shown as under Ukrainian control, here:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/49%C2 ... ?entry=ttu

[probes]

The early warning Voronezh radar is said to be in danger as well, or maybe already flooded.

The claim appears to be genuine.

apparently, and some sources claim it was full of and covered with EW, real interest to UKR.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

That radar is over 500 ft above the current flood level.
What may be at risk is its power supply, which crosses the river valley at some point, though the power station in Orsk is over 400 ft above the floods.
It also may be that the cooling water supply problems have caused the power station to be put on limited supply, or shut down.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Orsk/Orenburg floods likely to get worse in the near future, according to the Kremlin. Seems to match the three day forecast, at least.
12,000 homes and 15,000 garden plots currently reported under water and evacuated.
The Mayor of Orsk is reported in Russian news as saying that attempts to fill the broken levees with rubble have proved useless, which is what I said a couple of days ago.
They will just have to wait for the water level to drop.
Of course, more levees may break if the floods do worsen.
https://ria-ru.translate.goog/20240410/ ... r_pto=wapp

[John Hill]

They should park tanks in the breach, better use than having the Ukes destroy them.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Tried.
Failed.

Tried again.
Failed again.

I don't think we're ever gonna get it right, Tovarich

Screenshot from 2024-04-10 18-16-01.jpg (30.41 KiB) Viewed 497 times

[probes]

You must be kiddin', Fox! ! Are these really from the flood areas??
A lesson for you, JH, you think you're jokin', but... (sadly has happened to me more than once ).

Now we'll just have to wait until putin claims the flood happened because UKR had opened a window on their border for the waters to escape?

Although, all in all it's not that bad for them - at least they are not being shot and shelled at while evacuating residents.

[probes]

An aircraft facility in Voronezh oblast hit.
At least one helicopter hit.
Donetsk, Bahmut, Tsassiv Yar - ruz is trying very hard, armoured vehicles with and without troops. Around Tonenke 77 ruz and 5 UKR destroyed ones identified on sat images.

ruz 'dropped' a gliding FAB-1500 in the occupied Donetsk region. Would it be nasty to say unfortunately it did not detonate?

And the Euro-5 standard to their petrol is going to be lowered to Euro-3. Aromatic compounds (if that's the term) limit won't be followed that strictly and that's supposed to boost production. Maybe someone will explain, how? MMA (Methyl methacrylate?) additive considered, that's banned in EU. If sulphur content is 'regulated', it may be an even bigger boost, it's said. Shortages in domestic market expected in May.

Chinese DJI Technology sells thousands of drones to UKR. The US ones are too expensive and some were reported ineffective.

Flights in Iran airspace are getting suspended (or terminated).

Peace summit in Switzerland in June. ruz not welcome, around 100 states expected.

[probes]

Opinion: Congress must let Ukraine win, say Barbra Streisand, Sean Penn, Imagine Dragons, Timothy Snyder and other luminaries
If Russia breaks through, this will be our fault. And then we will understand what we have lost.

Ukrainians are fighting for their existence. On territory that Russia occupies, it tortures Ukrainian citizens, kidnaps Ukrainian children and murders Ukrainian leaders. On territory Russia can reach with its weapons, it strikes civilians and rescue workers. Russian missiles, drones and bombs destroy churches and monuments to the Holocaust. Russian occupation threatens Ukraine’s Muslims, the Crimean Tatars.

Russian leaders say openly that their goal is the destruction of the Ukrainian state and the elimination of Ukrainians as a people. Russian propagandists threaten genocide almost every day. Right now, Russia is using missiles and glide bombs to destroy the ancient and beautiful city of Kharkiv, once home to 1.5 million people, just as Russia destroyed Mariupol, Aleppo and Grozny.

Ukrainians are also fighting for our safety and for everyone’s freedom. By resisting Russian dictatorship, they show that democracy can defend itself. By defending their borders, they are protecting the international order and holding off chaos. By fighting Russia alone, they protect Europe. By showing how hard offensive operations are, Ukrainians make a Chinese war in the Pacific less likely. By fighting a conventional war against a nuclear power, they are making nuclear proliferation and nuclear war less likely.
The Ukrainian armed forces are defending basic American interests. They are doing things that Americans cannot do for themselves. By absorbing the entire Russian attack, they are making other wars in Europe impossible. They deter China without in any way provoking Beijing. By showing that a nuclear power can be resisted, they teach other countries that they need not build nuclear weapons. For two years, Ukrainians have protected us as well as their own people.

Most Americans understand this, and want to help Ukraine. And most elected representatives do, too.

But we are letting the Ukrainians down. It has been more than 470 days since Congress passed legislation to support Ukraine. That is most of the time since Russia invaded in February 2022. During the period of our inaction, Russia has reconstituted its army. It is preparing a new offensive, testing Ukraine across the front and illegally using CS gas to drive Ukrainian soldiers from their trenches.

[probes]

Forecast for Tolyatti (almost 1 mil residents) not good. But, as said in the video, no need to be optimistic about people getting impatient - they'll appeal to putin and will be told everything's under control and is going by plans.

[tango15]

Tolyatti is the home of the LADA factory, which apart from the ubiquitous (though not in the UK) models, also produces military vehicles. And of course, it's not just the cars, but the components as well. The Russians tend not to produce parts 1000 miles away and ship them to the assembly plant. Most of it is normally done locally, which explains why Tolyatti's population has increased so rapidly.
It's also known as 'Mafia City'. Lots of gang violence. From Wiki:
The city has witnessed a mafia killing spree: there have been 550 commissioned killings in Tolyatti over 1998–2004, five of those murdered were journalists.

Perhaps any flooding will keep the gangs at home for a while.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Yeah, I was kidding. The first two were from failed river crossings, and the last one the Russian tank driver just drove off a bridge.

But this is real....
The Russians are now using URAL army trucks in front line assaults, complete with cope cages.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112253009741634284
Possibilities:
Desperately short of AFVs
Suicide squads so no point using AFVs
Trucks are life-expired for longer distance work, probably due to spare parts and/or mechanic shortages.
Any other suggestions?
Commanding Russian General is a Mad Max fan?? (When will we see The Last of the V8s? )


Anyway, this won't help with a general shortage of trucks.

[probes]

Well, but every little bit helps!

[probes]

The night before, ruz: 42 missiles and 40 drones, 57 destroyed by UKR. A major power facility near Kiyv lost, Trypilska TPP, - the Patriot ammo is running out. ruz has supposedly used their newest X-69.
putin says the facilities were not hit in winter due to 'humanitarian considerations'. As everybody knows, ruz is extremely careful not to hurt a single innocent soul in Ukraine.

ruz is trying hard in several directions, mainly Bakhmut and Donetsk (a suggestion re: URALS - maybe also lack of troops able to more or less drive a tank or tank-like vehicle?), amongst the bodies and vehicle wrecks.
More banks are reluctant to receive ruz payments. Or refuse to, after Biden indicated he doesn't approve (secondary sanctions). Even the Chinese ones.
ruz is nationalising enterprises (wine, grape growers, pork producers; some major industrial facilities in the process, allegedly due to illegal privatisation in the 90s. Suitable grounds will be found for several more.) putin has said it won't happen (deprivatisation) unless... so the unless is going to be provided.
"EU Parliament delays approval of Council budget to press for military aid to Ukraine" - namely, Patriots. About 100 in Europe, UKR hasn't been given even the 7 they have asked.
Zelenskyi says about 25 in total are needed. ruz is supposed to have managed to hit some, supposedly the ones taking down the glide bombing planes.

ruz announced they would prefer negotiations to end the war - but of course not the ones planned in Switzerland in June.

Water level in Orenburg has risen to 11+ metres and more is expected. 9 m is the official 'danger' zone level.

[probes]

Moscow oblast has started preparations for 'military reserve drills', with lists of eligible men demanded. Significant, as it indicates the 'human resource' in the 'faraway regions' is running out.
And shortages and difficulties predicted by directors who have to let their employees go. For 2 weeks, they're told.

Otherwise - ruz is trying hard towards Bakhmut and Tsasiv Yar (relevant due to location=higher, dominating the landscape around it + transport hub).

The flood is doing well. Leaking levees from around 1:28.
More and other news from about 2:33.

[tango15]

That is some serious flooding. There must be a lot of very unhappy people in the Orenburg region at the moment.

[probes]

Sure. And the 'unhappiness' won't go away with the water (which might stay for weeks, the correspondent says) - probably the cars emerging from under water and unrepairable will be a big problem, too. Nice boost for Chinese industry, though, I guess .

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

With the FISA bill passed in Congress, foreign aid should be next up.
My interpretation is:
The hard Republicans want the US border defended first, i.e. Mexico, and that is in fact their sworn duty.
Rep Greene (R-Ga) has a Motion to Remove hanging over Johnson, which is how they got rid of the last Speaker.
Biden has not, and I think will not, do anything effective about the border. If he did, lots of hard lefties will leave their Teslas in the garage on Election Day.
Thus we could see Speaker Johnson ousted over any serious attempt to provide aid to anywhere except Israel, and maybe not even there.
So I think Ukraine is not going to get the aid it needs from the US to turn things around on the front line. They'll get some, but not enough.
Nor do I think the European NATO members are capable of coming up with the huge amounts of ammo necessary.
Thus Ukraine will need to continue strikes directly against and into Russia, especially refineries.
..and to complete the circle this, via the mechanism of the price of a gallon of gas in the US, affects Biden's election chances.

The above is how I think things will most likely work out. But that likelihood is quite low, it's just bigger than any of the others.
How does the cycle get broken to change outcomes?
Well, if either the Republicans or the Democrats can find a form of words that satisfies their electorate without actually giving them what they've asked for, then that would work.
If the price of gas drops for other reasons, then that could give Biden enough room to manoeuvre.
If the Iranians effectively back down in the ME, then that could decrease tensions and thus need for Israeli funding to give Biden more room (and lower the price of gas).
But views are continuing to polarize everywhere, and actions are increasingly for immediate effect to assuage those views, and the cost (and delay) of those actions is huge because of bureaucratic inefficiencies, which then continues to push inflation, which increases general tension and so leads to more polarization.
Everyone wants everything done RIGHT NOW, and sod the consequences...except the consequences make things worse.

..and I've already left off one thread because I've been told not to bring up the US Election, but this IS the most important factor in everything global for the next 7 months.
And history supports me in this - take the Suez War in 1956 for just one example.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Trump has announced he supports aid to Ukraine, in loan form.
This may be enough to get the hardline Republicans to support an aid bill for Ukraine, since it would not, in accountancy terms, be 'spending'.
This was announced after he just had a meeting with Speaker Johnson.

And US political commentators and the Ukrainians are making a thing of it, not just me.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/13/7451083/

The Germans have discovered one Patriot system they can immediately send to Ukraine.
One.