Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1781 Post by PHXPhlyer » Wed Aug 10, 2022 5:57 pm

Does Ukraine Have A Stash Of Domestically Developed Ballistic Missiles?
A possible high-profile long-range attack on a Russian airbase has led many to wonder if Ukraine has a pocket arsenal of ballistic missiles.

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While we can't say with any certainty that Ukraine may have now deployed even a limited number of Grim-2/Hrim-2 missiles it has for actual operational use, or used these weapons against Saki Airbase, there is certainly a number of different relevant precedents in the current conflict. Most notable, of course, is the sudden appearance of Ukrainian units armed with domestically-developed Neptune shore-based anti-ship cruise missiles to sink the Russian Navy's cruiser Moskva, the flagship of its Black Sea Fleet, in April. Prior to that incident, it was not commonly understood that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had any real operational capability with Neptune, and if it did, it was extremely limited.

Ukrainian forces have utilized other less complex experimental domestically-developed weapon systems in the fight against the Russian invaders. This includes the one-off Kevlar-E tracked armored fighting vehicle and the lone prototype of the 2S22 Bohdana wheeled self-propelled 155mm howitzer.

There is also the potential that Ukraine has received assistance from one or more of its international partners, especially the United States, since the conflict began to help field a more robust, if still small operational force armed with Grim-2/Hrim-2s or similar missiles. There is already substantial evidence that the U.S. military quietly helped integrate the AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM), primarily designed to home in on and destroy enemy air defense radars, onto Ukrainian aircraft, as you can read more about here. American authorities at least facilitated some kind of similar integration of 70mm laser-guided Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) rockets onto ground and/or aerial platforms. Other countries, such as the United Kingdom, have helped the Ukrainian Armed Forces field additional non-ballistic ground-based surface-to-surface missile systems, as well.

That a single Grim-2/Hrim-2 TEL that can fire two missiles could also fit with pictures and video that have emerged so far that appear to show two near-simultaneous major explosions at distinctly separate parts of the base. If this was indeed a missile strike, using domestically-developed weapons would only add to its propaganda value, having already demonstrated an ability to penetrate past Russia's substantial air and missile defenses to hit a key target in occupied Crimea.


It remains unknown whether Ukraine fired Grim-2/Hrim-2 missiles at Saki Airbase, or if even a small arsenal of them exists at all. At the same time, striking this base is exactly the kind of thing that might be seen as a very worthwhile use of what could easily be a very limited number of these weapons.

But it really isn't just about even the low possibility that the Grim-2/Hrim-2 was rushed into service, even if that included just completing old experimental examples so they could be used in high-profile strikes. Ukraine has now been fighting off a brutal invasion for nearly six months. The lines have stabilized and billions of dollars in weaponry and other military assistance have poured into the country. Clearly, Ukraine needed as advanced weapons as it could get its hands on, and especially those that could put Russian targets at risk over long distances.

We have seen at least one confirmed form of an improvised long-range strike weapon used against a target in Russia. We have also seen Soviet-era Tu-141 and Tu-143 surveillance drones converted into crude cruise missiles. Both of these are more of an example of ingenuity through desperation than anything else and harder-hitting, more reliable, and more capable long-range weapons have certainly been sought.


The U.S. government has not been willing to supply such a capability in the form of land-attack cruise missiles or ATACMS ballistic missiles due to the risk of escalating and broadening the conflict. But, helping Ukraine build its own weapons would be a different story, and Ukraine had just such a weapon relatively deeply in development, as well as others.

So, whether the attack today on Russia's airbase in occupied Crimea had anything to do with a secretive advanced long-range weapon or not, it makes a lot of sense for Ukraine to be pursuing reanimating defunct weapons programs of this nature and fielding some sort of capability as fast as possible. Considering the country is in a fight for its very survival, anything less would illogical.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1782 Post by Pontius Navigator » Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:13 pm

A ballistic missile arrives and goes bang. Sometime after the explosion is a second bang, that is the sound wave catching up with the target.

An exploding ballistic missile therefore has two bangs.

The video has two near simultaneous bangs, I do not think that was the double bang of a ballistic missile are there were two distinct explosions. From the observer in the apartments it wax about 12 seconds or 4,000 yards.

If it had been 2 missiles you would expect 4 bangs. If one missile and two payloads you might get 3 bangs.

Attractive as the ballistic missile theory is, from what is online I would rule out an SRBM.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1783 Post by Pontius Navigator » Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:59 pm

Re 1778, I should have said the destroyed is quite different from damaged. Damage implies repairable.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1784 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:10 pm

At least a 16 mile tailback at Kerch to cross back into Russia.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1785 Post by boing » Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:32 pm

Methinks they are going to have some tales to tell when they get home. Did you see the b---- who complained about leaving her condo behind when her nation's army is destroying whole cities?

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OK boing, your starter for 10. "How far apart should aircraft loaded with nuclear be?"
I figure about 200 miles should be OK but we can expand that if we have the space. In practice how far were the pans apart on the Finningley eight?

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1786 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:50 pm

Not exclusively Russian - You could have heard the same kind of thing when all previous empires have collapsed.

Post strike photos, allegedly, compared with a screenshot I just took of Google maps.
saky3.jpg
Screenshot from 2022-08-10 17-41-49.png
Looks like they hit 2 aircraft storage areas, plus the building in the NW corner. I think the building in the NE corner was also hit, but this is not highlighted. Some evidence that the aircraft on the left hand edge of the flight line right at the bottom was destroyed by the bottom left explosion, as well as maybe up to 8 other aircraft. This would explain the claim of 9 aircraft destroyed. The location of the explosion centres is interesting, giving some clue as to where the explosives where hidden, if it was sabotage. There are more areas on base where aircraft are stored, and this photo only accounts for 4 or possibly 5 explosions, when 12+ were reported as heard by witnesses.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1787 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:43 pm

That sixteen mile tailback to leave via the Kerch bridge is now sixty miles.

Crimea river.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1788 Post by TheGreenAnger » Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:37 am

Meanwhile the battle of the bridges goes on and the Russian use pyramidal radar reflectors in the water to the west of the Antonivsky bridge and near the rail bridge as decoys to confuse the targeting radars while they attempt to repair the real bridge.

https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/08/04/rus ... n-ukraine/
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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1789 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:47 am

The game's afoot!

Ukraine will consider how to inflict as much damage on Russia as possible to end the war quickly, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday.

8 large explosions reported from Ziabrauka airfield near Homel in Belarus.

Lots of Russian military gear is stationed there & the Russians often launch attack against Ukraine from Ziabrauka.



Appears to be a disused Cold War airfield. All legacy airfield buildings removed, but runway and surfaces look intact and there's an active fuel depot. The main base is now a civilian suburb.

Looks like good Ukrainian strategy - launch single actions in every direction. The Russians can't defend them all. And whilst they are rushing around trying, blow up the transport links. I expect we will see more bridges randomly going down, including in Russia and Belarus. Then the Ukes can finish off recapturing Kherson. It will be doing Putin's 'ead in!

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1790 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Thu Aug 11, 2022 7:57 am

Update: It appears the explosions started around, literally, oh-dark-thirty (00:30). It is possible they are part of a Belarusian live fire exercise. One awaits further info

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1791 Post by Pontius Navigator » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:16 am

Fox, as you were fighters I will allow you that.

Spacing between nuclear armed aircraft was 46 m minimum. There was a 'concrete' reason for this. V Bomber pans were 50 yards between centres.

Next was the spacing between a nuclear armed Nimrod aircraft and a conventional one was 210 metres.

Between conventional arms on Vulcans, 274 metres.

Then, as you well know, are safe headings. That flight line is OK for safe headings but otherwise pants.
The revetment dispersal is marginal for safe headings but pants for operations.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1792 Post by Pontius Navigator » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:18 am

Look at Google Earth at an airfield just north of Sevastopol. It is dated 2020 but just look at the aircraft parking.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1793 Post by TheGreenAnger » Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:56 am

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote:
Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:47 am
The game's afoot!
It will be doing Putin's 'ead in!

One wishes that somebody would do that, preferably with a long lead pipe!
My necessaries are embark'd: farewell. Adieu! I have too grieved a heart to take a tedious leave.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1794 Post by Pontius Navigator » Thu Aug 11, 2022 11:15 am

[quote=Fox3WheresMyBanana post_id=341645 time=1660164639 user_id=178{

Post strike photos, allegedly, compared with a screenshot I just took of Google maps.
saky3.jpg
Screenshot from 2022-08-10 17-41-49.png
[/quote]

I had wondered what the white blobs were on the apron. Just realised they are slot markers. On an earlier GE picture they are all occupied.

On the pre-strike image slots 3, 4 and 7 are occupied. There are black soot marks at slots 5 and 6.

Looking at the post strike image, slots 1 and 2 show evidence of scorching. I don't see any damage on the rest.

On the post strike image of the reverted area, the access track is cut at bottom and top. Of the buildings top left and top right, no sign.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1795 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:41 pm

Of the buildings top left and top right, no sign.
Not quite. One of the metal framing beams from the top left building ended up through the windows of a car in a car park about 1,200 feet west of it :D

And whilst they are rushing around trying, blow up the transport links. I expect we will see more bridges randomly going down, including in Russia and Belarus.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1796 Post by TheGreenAnger » Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:44 pm

The Russians have got the eternal war that they sought in their historically insecure, techno barbarian hearts....
My necessaries are embark'd: farewell. Adieu! I have too grieved a heart to take a tedious leave.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1797 Post by Pontius Navigator » Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:53 pm

Fox, I see 3 interesting things in that pic. Top left the rail has a bit missing. Near track, left of centre, the track a has diagonal cut towards the sleeper bolt. Then the bottom flange between the sleepers is missing.

I presume that is where the explosive was applied.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1798 Post by TheGreenAnger » Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:58 pm

You ex-RAF blokes should hire yourselves out as brains to hire to the Kranians... ;)))

My tongue in cheek comment, is serious insomuch that one hopes that you maximize Russian losses!
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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1799 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:01 pm

I would guess from my basic fracture mechanics that the explosive was applied on top of the outer flange / upright junction. The flange has sheared off, and the crack has spread from the bolt hole. Diagonal cracks are characteristic of destructive forces in torsion.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1800 Post by Pontius Navigator » Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:34 pm

👍 What about the gap on the other track? Would the diagonal fault, both tracks, cause a twist as the train crosses thus assisting a run off?

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